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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreUSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:38 · Kris Albarado punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:28: Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 9 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +7.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:34: Cody Kessler pass complete to Jahleel Pinner for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +17.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 2:32: Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +18.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:55: Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 36 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +20.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:13: Cade Apsay pass complete to George Frazier for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +25.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 8 of 8USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:20USC 4th & 1 at COLO 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.4%71% to convertField goal80.2%−0.288% to makePunt79.7%−0.6average punt
- Q1 10:35USC 4th & 4 at COLO 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snapGo for it79.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call79.5%−<0.193% to makePunt79.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:16COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it21.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.3%average punt
- Q1 7:24USC 4th & 8 at USC 22, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snapGo for it77.8%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.0%average punt
- Q1 2:44USC 4th & 1 at USC 46, down 4Close callPunted · 74.1% before the snapGo for it74.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.6%−0.6average punt
- Q2 14:02COLO 4th & 26 at USC 45, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snapGo for it27.3%−1.17% to convertField goal27.8%−0.625% to makePuntTheir call28.4%average punt
- Q2 7:59USC 4th & 11 at USC 29, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snapGo for it55.2%−0.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.1%average punt
- Q2 3:14COLO 4th & 6 at USC 10, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snapGo for it49.9%−0.235% to convertField goalTheir call50.1%88% to makePunt44.4%−5.7average punt
- Q2 0:00USC 4th & 15 at COLO 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snapGo for it35.7%−2.316% to convertField goalTheir call37.9%70% to makePunt31.5%−6.4average punt
- Q3 11:54COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 45, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snapGo for it58.6%−2.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.2%average punt
- Q4 14:03COLO 4th & 9 at USC 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snapGo for it37.3%−0.432% to convertField goalTheir call37.7%47% to makePunt36.1%−1.6average punt
- Q4 10:35COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 44, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.4%−2.0average punt
- Q4 8:23COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 46, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snapGo for it11.6%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.4%average punt
- Q4 6:53USC 4th & 5 at USC 10, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it86.2%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.3%average punt
- Q4 4:38USC 4th & 11 at USC 42, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snapGo for it68.6%−4.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.3%average punt
- Q4 1:59COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.7%−6.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 5:15COLO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.0%97% to makeGo for two24.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:28COLO Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.5%97% to makeGo for two40.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:34USC Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.2%97% to makeGo for two48.0%−0.345% to convert
- Q3 2:32USC Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.3%97% to makeGo for two65.1%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 13:55USC Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.5%97% to makeGo for two82.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:13COLO Touchdown, down 4 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call26.6%−1.497% to makeGo for two28.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSCDrive 1FG11 plays · 58 yds · 4:1385% → 84%
COLODrive 2PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 2:0917% → 17%
USCDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4683% → 82%
Q1 7:24
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
18.1%
Kris Albarado punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD7 plays · 61 yds · 2:0218% → 21%
USCDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:1379% → 78%
COLODrive 6PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 3:3322% → 24%
Q1 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+9
22.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Patrick Carr for 9 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+36
22.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 36 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-5
24.7%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Kenny Bigelow Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 32Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 13
OPP 32
-8
24.3%
Cade Apsay sacked by Su'a Cravens for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7INT4 plays · 26 yds · 1:4775% → 74%
COLODrive 8TD6 plays · 26 yds · 2:2228% → 38%
USCDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1564% → 61%
Q2 8:27
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-6
37.0%
Cody Kessler sacked by Jimmie Gilbert for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 11
OWN 29
+7
39.5%
Kris Albarado punt for 43 yds , Nelson Spruce returns for 7 yds to the Colo 36 COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Colo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10FG12 plays · 65 yds · 4:3839% → 51%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
38.6%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Sean Irwin for 20 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+11
41.5%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 11 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
42.1%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 6 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+7
43.1%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Donovan Lee for 7 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11END OF HALF15 plays · 52 yds · 2:5850% → 44%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
50.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 28 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+9
50.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 9 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+12
50.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 12 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+10
52.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 10 yds to the Colo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
51.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 3 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-8
55.0%
Cody Kessler sacked by Kenneth Olugbode for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 3:0153% → 56%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
52.9%
Cade Apsay sacked by Anthony Sarao for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 20Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
53.8%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Donovan Lee for 16 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-3
57.3%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Devin Ross for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 45Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+10
55.7%
Apsay, Cade pass incomplete to Spruce, Nelson, PENALTY USC holding (Marshall, Iman) 10 yards to the USC45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-10
57.5%
Cade Apsay sacked by John Plattenburg for a loss of 10 yards to the Colo 45Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
55.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD14 plays · 82 yds · 6:1644% → 56%
Q3 11:12
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+6
57.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 6 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
58.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 11 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
58.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 10 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
61.7%
Kessler, Cody pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the COLORADO15 (McCartney, Derek), PENALTY COLORADO offside (Jones, Hayden) 3 yards to the COLORADO4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Jahleel Pinner for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14FUMBLE2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
52.6%
Christian Powell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 34 Christian Powell fumbled, forced by Delvon Simmons, recovered by USC Antwaun WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD7 plays · 34 yds · 2:4057% → 74%
Q3 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+14
45.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 14 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+9
43.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tyler Petite for 9 yds to the Colo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16MISSED FG9 plays · 31 yds · 3:1234% → 36%
Q3 1:22
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+9
33.8%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 9 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-8
41.4%
Cade Apsay sacked by Antwaun Woods for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+4
35.8%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+51
35.8%
Diego Gonzalez 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Adoree' Jackson Adoree' Jackson return for 30 yds to the Colo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD1 play · 36 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
15.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 36 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT13 plays · 23 yds · 5:2216% → 11%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+6
15.7%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+11
15.7%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 11 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
16.1%
Cade Apsay pass complete to George Frazier for 9 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-7
13.8%
Cade Apsay sacked by Delvon Simmons for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+4
11.5%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 4 yds to the Colo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2288% → 89%
Q4 6:53
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+45
11.5%
Kris Albarado punt for 39 yds , Nelson Spruce returns for 45 yds to the COLORADO 45 USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Kris Albarado) to the USC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20TD2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3215% → 40%
USCDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2377% → 75%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
22.8%
Kessler, Cody pass incomplete to Smith-Schuster, JuJu, PENALTY COLORADO pass interference (Laguda, Afolabi) 15 yards to the USC43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
23.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Ronald Jones II for no gain to the USC 42Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
25.5%
Kris Albarado punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22DOWNS8 plays · 22 yds · 2:3431% → 29%
Q4 4:20
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+10
28.1%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Shay Fields for 10 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
32.0%
Apsay, Cade pass incomplete to Fields, Shay, PENALTY USC pass interference (Jackson, Adoree') 7 yards to the COLORADO38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23END OF GAME7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3189% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:13
Cade Apsay pass complete to George Frazier for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)
+25.3
TD · Q4 13:55
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 36 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
-20.1
TD · Q3 2:32
Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
-18.1