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CAL

California 28 at Oregon 44

ORE
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:28 · Luke Rubenzer punt for 21 yds, downed at the Oregn 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Home team on offense+3.0Pregame prior+10.1Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:23: Vernon Adams Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +6.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:25: Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 28 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +5.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:01: Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 15 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +11.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:36: Vic Enwere run for 9 yds for a TD, (J. Goff Run For Two-point Conversion) — CAL win probability +11.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:27: Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 80 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +6.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 14:03ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:44CAL 4th & 5 at ORE 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:49ORE 4th & 5 at CAL 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:47CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:28CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:28CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:18CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:46CAL 4th & 26 at ORE 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:38ORE 4th & 16 at CAL 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:36CAL 4th & 1 at ORE 9, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−2.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:17ORE 4th & 3 at CAL 3, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−7.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:47CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 39, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:32CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 29, down 20
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:23ORE 4th & 1 at CAL 1, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 12:21CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:23ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:25ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:06ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:01ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:36CAL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:53ORE Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:27CAL Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4166% → 66%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
66.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
66.2%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
66.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q1 14:03
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+5
66.2%
Ian Wheeler punt blocked by Raymond Hudson Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:2934% → 35%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
66.0%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
66.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+12
66.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 12 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
65.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 18 yds to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
65.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Oregn 7Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
65.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
64.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3INT
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:3365% → 64%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
65.1%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+11
65.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 11 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
64.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 9 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+7
65.1%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
65.0%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+16
65.0%
Royce Freeman run for 16 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
65.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Taj Griffin for 26 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
64.9%
Taj Griffin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 9Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
64.4%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
64.0%
V. Adams Jr. pass intercepted by G. Piatt, touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:3937% → 39%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
63.1%
Vic Enwere run for 29 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
62.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 12 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
62.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-1
61.6%
Vic Enwere run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+22
61.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 22 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
61.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 5 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
60.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
60.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Raymond HudsonSimilar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
61.0%
Matt Anderson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 3:3561% → 60%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
61.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for no gain to the Oregn 21Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
61.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 9 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+6
60.8%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
61.0%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
59.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 5 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+5
59.8%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
60.0%
Kani Benoit run for 22 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
60.7%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 15
OPP 34
0
59.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+12
59.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for 12 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-2
59.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Hardy Nickerson for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 24Similar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
60.2%
Aidan Schneider 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5541% → 41%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
58.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
59.1%
Cole Leininger punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:0659% → 67%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
59.1%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
59.6%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
58.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 7 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
59.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Devon Allen for 7 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-15
60.0%
OREGON Penalty, Clipping (Cameron Hunt) to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+8
58.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 8 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-5
57.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Devon Allen) to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+46
57.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 46 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
60.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
66.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3037% → 36%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
63.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 7 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
62.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
63.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
64.1%
Cole Leininger punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 0:5664% → 72%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
64.3%
Royce Freeman run for 16 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
65.1%
Royce Freeman run for 19 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
66.3%
Kani Benoit run for 15 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
72.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 28 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 2:4330% → 30%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
70.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Matt AndersonSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
70.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+10
71.2%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
70.1%
Trevor Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+4
70.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+10
71.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 10 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
70.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 6 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
69.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
69.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
70.4%
Luke Rubenzer punt for 21 yds, downed at the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:1372% → 79%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
71.7%
Royce Freeman run for 17 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
73.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Devon Allen for 23 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
73.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Taj Griffin for 6 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-5
73.8%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Cameron Hunt) to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+15
73.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Devante Downs) to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
74.0%
Kirk Merritt run for 2 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
79.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 10 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3822% → 22%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
77.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
77.8%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
78.3%
Cole Leininger punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0379% → 94%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.1%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
79.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 6 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
80.5%
Taj Griffin run for 32 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
81.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
81.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+18
81.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 18 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
82.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
93.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 15 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14END OF HALF
13 plays · 63 yds · 0:549% → 7%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
91.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
91.0%
OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
50
+5
90.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 5 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
90.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+12
90.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 12 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
93.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 21 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
92.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
93.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:068% → 12%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 13 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-10
91.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Rigsbee) to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+57
92.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 57 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
91.0%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-16
91.4%
Jared Goff sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 16 yards to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 26
OPP 31
0
93.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 26
OPP 31
+48
88.2%
Matt Anderson 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:5291% → 92%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
91.2%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+15
91.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 15 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
91.7%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Darren Carrington) to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+10
91.5%
Kani Benoit run for 10 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+12
92.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 12 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
92.6%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
92.7%
Taj Griffin run for 2 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-10
92.7%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Hunt) to the Cal 49Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 16
OPP 49
0
92.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 16
OPP 49
+2
92.0%
Ian Wheeler punt blocked by Hamilton Anoa'i, J. Johnson return for 2 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:4910% → 21%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
90.0%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+22
89.7%
Vic Enwere run for 22 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
89.5%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+5
89.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 5 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
90.5%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
78.9%
Vic Enwere run for 9 yds for a TD, (J. Goff Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:1381% → 90%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
81.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
81.4%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+43
80.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 43 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
83.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
84.0%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+6
83.2%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
84.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 9 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 1
OPP 10
0
84.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Johnny MundtSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+4
83.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Cal 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
84.4%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Cal 4Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
84.5%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
83.8%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 3Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
89.7%
Aidan Schneider 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0312% → 11%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
87.8%
Daniel Lasco run for 12 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
87.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
87.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Raymond HudsonSimilar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
88.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
89.4%
Cole Leininger punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:4591% → 98%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
90.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 21 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+26
92.6%
Tony Brooks-James run for 26 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
92.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 8 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+20
98.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 20 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-5
98.0%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 1:522% → 2%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
97.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 10Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 20
OWN 10
-1
98.3%
Jared Goff sacked by Tyree Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 9Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 21
OWN 9
-4
98.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-4 Yards) to the Cal 5Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 25
OWN 5
0
98.4%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Cal 5Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 25
OWN 5
+15
98.4%
OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Henry Mondeaux) to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.3%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
98.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
98.5%
Cole Leininger punt for 53 yds, downed at the Oregn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22INT
8 plays · 63 yds · 4:2599% → 99%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
98.5%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+7
98.6%
Kani Benoit run for 7 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
98.7%
Kani Benoit run for 5 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+27
98.7%
Kani Benoit run for 27 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
98.8%
Taj Griffin run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+16
98.8%
Taj Griffin run for 16 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.9%
Taj Griffin run for no gain to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
98.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. Darius White return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
93.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 80 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24FG
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:4995% → 98%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
95.4%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+30
95.9%
Royce Freeman run for 30 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+29
96.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 29 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
96.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Cal 6Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
96.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.1%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
98.0%
Aidan Schneider 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25INT
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:473% → 3%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
97.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 7 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST down lat. to Bryce Treggs for 19 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
97.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 10 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.0%
Jared Goff pass intercepted Khalil Oliver return for no gain to the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:0098% → 99%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
98.4%
Taj Griffin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+15
98.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
98.5%
Taj Griffin run for 7 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:01
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 15 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q3 6:36
Vic Enwere run for 9 yds for a TD, (J. Goff Run For Two-point Conversion)
-11.7
TD · Q2 12:23
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com