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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreSTAN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:10 · Cade Apsay sacked by Mike Tyler for a loss of 10 yards to the Colo 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:07: Donovan Lee 4 Yd Run (Diego Gonzalez Kick) — COLO win probability +2.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:53: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 43 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +3.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:51: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 6 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +4.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:01: Kevin Hogan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +5.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:23: Bryce Love run for 47 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +7.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:50STAN 4th & 1 at COLO 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.0%70% to convertField goal81.7%−0.234% to makePunt81.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:51STAN 4th & 2 at COLO 6, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.6%52% to convertField goal79.7%−0.991% to makePunt76.1%−4.5average punt
- Q3 11:36COLO 4th & 5 at STAN 11, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.1%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call9.3%87% to makePunt5.9%−3.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 7:49STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.3%97% to makeGo for two81.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:07COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.8%97% to makeGo for two20.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:53STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.8%97% to makeGo for two78.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:51STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.6%97% to makeGo for two83.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:01STAN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.0%97% to makeGo for two90.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:23STAN Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:52STAN Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSTANDrive 1TD14 plays · 81 yds · 6:5186% → 84%
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+20
15.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 20 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+7
15.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 7 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+9
16.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 9 yds to the Colo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
16.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for 12 yds to the Colo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3416% → 19%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+36
17.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 36 yds to the Stanf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:5182% → 81%
Q1 5:19
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
18.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 2 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+6
18.6%
Wright, Remound rush for 1 yard to the COLORADO43, PENALTY COLORADO offside (Jackson III, Leo) 6 yards to the COLORADO38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
18.9%
Kevin Hogan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 40 Kevin Hogan fumbled, recovered by Stanf Kevin HoganSimilar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-6
19.4%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Jimmie Gilbert for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4721% → 21%
Q1 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
21.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 4 yds to the Colo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD7 plays · 62 yds · 3:0879% → 82%
COLODrive 6MISSED FG9 plays · 60 yds · 2:5120% → 22%
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+14
19.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 14 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+10
20.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 10 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
21.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 23 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
22.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 6 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD12 plays · 80 yds · 6:1381% → 87%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
17.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Daniel Marx for 5 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
17.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+8
18.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 8 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+3
17.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 3 yds to the Colo 6Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
12.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 6 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8INT3 plays · 12 yds · 0:2014% → 14%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
13.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Dylan Keeney for 11 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD7 plays · 57 yds · 0:5988% → 94%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
12.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 9 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
12.1%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Jered BellSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
12.0%
Hogan, Kevin pass incomplete to Irwin, Trenton, PENALTY COLORADO pass interference (Crawley, Ken) 10 yards to the COLORADO26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
11.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 25 yds to the Colo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11FG9 plays · 64 yds · 3:189% → 10%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
8.5%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Spruce, Nelson, PENALTY STANFORD roughing passer (Scarlett, Brennan) 15 yards to the COLORADO40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO.Similar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
9.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 11 yds to the COLORADO 49 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12TD2 plays · 47 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT3 plays · 4 yds · 1:062% → 1%
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
1.6%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Kevin Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14INT3 plays · 16 yds · 1:0098% → 99%
Q3 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+8
1.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 8 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15DOWNS3 plays · -2 yds · 0:452% → 2%
STANDrive 16TD13 plays · 95 yds · 6:1299% → 100%
Q3 4:19
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+5
1.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 5 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
1.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 3 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
0.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 7 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
0.5%
Christian McCaffrey pass complete to Austin Hooper for 28 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT3 plays · -13 yds · 0:450% → 0%
STANDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q4 12:33
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-5
0.4%
Burns, Ryan rush for 7 yards to the COLORADO36, PENALTY STANFORD illegal shift 5 yards to the COLORADO48, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19INT4 plays · 21 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q4 10:35
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+12
0.2%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 12 yds to the Colo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20PUNT3 plays · 0 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q4 8:36
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-2
0.2%
Keller Chryst run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 37 Keller Chryst fumbled, recovered by Stanf Keller ChrystSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21PUNT3 plays · 8 yds · 0:460% → 0%
STANDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:23
Bryce Love run for 47 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q2 0:01
Kevin Hogan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q2 1:51
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 6 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-4.8