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ARIZ

Arizona 30 at USC 38

USC
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3USC 64.7%Casey Skowron 44 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 24 · Q4 10:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:05 · Casey Skowron 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Pregame prior+7.7Home team on offense−2.0Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:15: Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 72 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +5.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q2 2:56: Cody Kessler pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +7.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:55: Justin Davis run for 9 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +20.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:24: Ronald Jones II run for 74 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +21.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:10: Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 4 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +11.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:53USC 4th & 14 at USC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:54ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:46USC 4th & 17 at USC 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:30ARIZ 4th & 16 at USC 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:21USC 4th & 6 at USC 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:35USC 4th & 8 at ARIZ 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:12ARIZ 4th & 5 at USC 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:55USC 4th & 1 at ARIZ 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−2.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:01ARIZ 4th & 4 at USC 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00USC 4th & 6 at USC 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:57USC 4th & 8 at ARIZ 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−10.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:57ARIZ 4th & 2 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.2%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:49ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:46USC 4th & 8 at USC 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−1.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:05ARIZ 4th & 7 at USC 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−9.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:16ARIZ 4th & 14 at USC 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−1.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:36ARIZ 4th & 10 at USC 30, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:46ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:15USC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:56USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:55USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:24USC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−1.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:36USC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:10ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
88.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 3 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
88.0%
Anu Solomon run for 5 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
88.0%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+2
88.0%
Drew Riggleman punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 32 , Adoree' Jackson returns for 2 yds to the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
87.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 7 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-5
87.8%
USC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the USC 34Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
87.7%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-8
87.7%
Cody Kessler sacked by Anthony Lopez for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 28Similar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 14
OWN 28
+1
87.7%
Kris Albarado punt for 45 yds , Nate Phillips returns for 1 yd to the Ariz 29 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Ariz 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
87.1%
Orlando Bradford run for 4 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
87.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 4 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
87.1%
Orlando Bradford run for no gain to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 2
OWN 26
-5
87.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 21Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+16
87.2%
Drew Riggleman punt for 54 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 16 yds to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
86.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 7 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+7
87.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 7 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
87.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-2
87.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+15
86.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 15 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-16
87.0%
Cody Kessler run for a loss of 16 yards to the Ariz 45 Cody Kessler fumbled, recovered by Ariz Jake MatthewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1314% → 18%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
85.6%
Solomon, A. pass incomplete to Grant, S., PENALTY USC personal foul (Jefferson, Noah) 15 yards to the USC40, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
85.5%
Anu Solomon run for 3 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+13
85.5%
Anu Solomon run for 13 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
85.3%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+9
85.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 9 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
85.3%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
82.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 9 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.3%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 35Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
83.3%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-7
83.0%
Cody Kessler sacked by Tellas Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 28Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
82.8%
Kris Albarado punt for 39 yds, downed at the Ariz 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
82.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 24 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
81.7%
Anu Solomon sacked by Antwaun Woods for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+2
81.8%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 11
OPP 44
-5
81.9%
Anu Solomon sacked by Rasheem Green and Antwaun Woods for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
82.4%
Drew Riggleman punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.8%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
80.8%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
80.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
80.4%
Kris Albarado punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:3721% → 26%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
79.4%
Jared Baker run for 18 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
79.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 5 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+5
79.2%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
79.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Johnny JacksonSimilar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+23
79.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 23 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
79.1%
Solomon, A. pass incomplete to Griffey, T., PENALTY USC holding (Marshall, Iman) 5 yards to the USC4, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
79.1%
Orlando Bradford run for 1 yd to the USC 3Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 3 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:1875% → 75%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
75.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tyler Petite for 18 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
76.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
50
0
76.2%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 5
50
+42
76.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 42 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
76.6%
USC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 13Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+5
76.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.6%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
74.7%
Alex Wood 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11INT
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
73.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 2 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+15
73.8%
Jared Baker run for 15 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
73.0%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+29
73.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 29 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
72.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+22
72.9%
Anu Solomon pass intercepted John Plattenburg return for 22 yds to the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
78.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 72 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:0323% → 28%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
76.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 28 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
76.4%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
76.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
76.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
72.5%
Casey Skowron 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 5:1173% → 81%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
73.3%
Justin Davis run for 18 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
73.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 6 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
74.9%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the USC 42Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+11
74.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
75.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr., broken up by Will ParksSimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
75.1%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+9
70.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 9 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+2
71.3%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
72.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+8
73.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
73.3%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
73.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 15 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 33 yds · 1:5025% → 27%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
74.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Jared BakerSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
75.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 11 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
74.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 9 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+7
73.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 7 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
72.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Jared BakerSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
73.0%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+3
72.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 3 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
73.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb Jones, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0678% → 80%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
78.2%
Kessler, Cody pass incomplete, QB hurry by Banda, J., PENALTY ARIZ personal foul (Banda, J.) 15 yards to the ARIZ46, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
79.6%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
76.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 4 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
76.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-Schuster, broken up by Jarvis McCall Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
75.4%
Cody Kessler run for no gain to the USC 20Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 20
+14
74.8%
Kris Albarado punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 30 for a 1ST down , Nate Phillips returns for 14 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:4231% → 34%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
69.3%
Jared Baker run for 1 yd to the USC 29Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+20
69.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 20 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
69.1%
Anu Solomon run for no gain to the USC 9Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
69.1%
Samajie Grant run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 15Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-6
71.7%
Anu Solomon sacked by Antwaun Woods and Scott Felix for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 21Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+38
66.5%
Casey Skowron 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19MISSED FG
16 plays · 47 yds · 4:4668% → 63%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
68.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
70.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
70.3%
Justin Davis run for 11 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
70.9%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+5
70.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 5 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+5
70.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
72.0%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
71.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+6
67.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 6 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
68.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 1 yd to the Ariz 18Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
68.8%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+1
66.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Ariz 17Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
63.4%
Alex Wood 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0040% → 42%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
59.6%
Jared Baker run for 1 yd to the Ariz 21Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
60.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 8 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
59.0%
Orlando Bradford run for 3 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
58.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 10 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
56.6%
Anu Solomon run for 4 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
56.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-1
56.2%
Orlando Bradford run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 2
50
0
58.4%
Orlando Bradford run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:3162% → 82%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
50
+2
61.9%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
62.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+8
60.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 8 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
62.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Deontay Burnett for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+10
59.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 10 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+27
61.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 27 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
82.0%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0026% → 23%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
74.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
74.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (Layth Friekh) to the Ariz 19Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 15
OWN 19
-2
75.0%
Jared Baker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 17Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 17
OWN 17
+9
76.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 9 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+3
76.6%
Drew Riggleman punt for 35 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 77%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
80.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+4
79.5%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
78.8%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
77.1%
Kris Albarado punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:2127% → 35%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
73.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (Layth Friekh) to the Ariz 15Similar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-2
73.8%
Jerrard Randall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 13Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+22
74.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 22 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+36
72.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 36 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
65.8%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Jared BakerSimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
66.8%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-2
67.7%
Anu Solomon sacked by Su'a Cravens for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 26Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
64.7%
Casey Skowron 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3768% → 90%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
68.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+74
89.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 74 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0013% → 11%
Q4 9:16
2ND & 15
OPP 46
-5
87.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 20
OWN 49
+6
87.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 6 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
84.9%
Anu Solomon sacked by Su'a Cravens and Claude Pelon for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 46 Anu Solomon fumbled, recovered by Ariz Jared Baker , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 14
OPP 45
0
88.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Johnny JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 14
OPP 45
+7
89.0%
Drew Riggleman punt for 37 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 7 yds to the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:0591% → 99%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
90.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (Johnny Jackson) to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
90.9%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
90.9%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+5
90.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 5 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
91.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
91.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+11
91.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 11 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
92.2%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+17
92.1%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
92.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
92.2%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+16
98.9%
Justin Davis run for 16 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 28TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 2:263% → 15%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David Richards, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
97.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 1 yd to the Ariz 36Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
97.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 10 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
97.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 6
50
-6
97.3%
Anu Solomon sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 44Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+15
97.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 15 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
97.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 11 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
97.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Jared Baker, broken up by Lamar DawsonSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
97.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+21
97.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 21 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
96.7%
USC Penalty, (5 Yards) to the USC 4Similar
Q4 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 4 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:24
Ronald Jones II run for 74 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
+21.7
TD · Q4 14:55
Justin Davis run for 9 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
+20.5
TD · Q4 0:10
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 4 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
-11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com