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COLO

Colorado 31 at UCLA 35

UCLA
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.7UCLA 89.6%Diego Gonzalez 23 Yd Field GoalAWAY 6 - HOME 21 · Q2 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Diego Gonzalez 23 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior+22.6Home team on offense+10.3Garbage-time factor+2.1Score differential+4.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:06: Donovan Lee 1 Yd Run (Diego Gonzalez Kick) — COLO win probability +6.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:35: Nate Starks 11 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) — UCLA win probability +6.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:37: Samson Kafovalu 33 Yd Fumble Return (Diego Gonzalez Kick) — COLO win probability +15.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:04: Patrick Carr 6 Yd Run (Sefo Liufau Pass to Nelson Spruce for Two-Point Conversion) — COLO win probability +30.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:28: Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +27.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7COLO made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 13:46UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:08COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:06COLO 4th & 10 at UCLA 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:38UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:13COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:36UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:30COLO 4th & 1 at UCLA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−0.9
    74% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:29COLO 4th & 7 at UCLA 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00COLO 4th & 4 at UCLA 6, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:11COLO 4th & 20 at COLO 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−3.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:15COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:30COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 47, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:23UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 11, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:06COLO 4th & 5 at UCLA 28, down 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:28UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:16UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:55COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:04COLO 4th & 1 at UCLA 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−4.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−11.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:34COLO 4th & 4 at UCLA 23, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.0 ptsWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%−3.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−14.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:52UCLA 4th & 11 at UCLA 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:01UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:01UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:09UCLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:06COLO Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:35UCLA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:37COLO Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:04COLO Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    45.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:28UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0489% → 89%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
89.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 2 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+4
89.1%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
89.0%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
88.9%
Matt Mengel punt for 64 yds, downed at the Colo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:2711% → 12%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
88.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 6 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+7
88.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 7 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
88.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 12 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
88.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
88.4%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
88.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
88.5%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds, downed at the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 3:5988% → 88%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
88.4%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+1
88.3%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+24
88.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 24 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
88.1%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-10
88.1%
Rosen, Josh pass incomplete to Fuller, Devin, PENALTY UCLA personal foul 10 yards to the UCLA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+27
87.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 27 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
88.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 8 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
88.0%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the Colo 33Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+6
87.8%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
87.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 14
OPP 31
0
87.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+31
88.4%
Paul Perkins 31 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4MISSED FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 5:4912% → 13%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.3%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
88.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 4 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
88.1%
Sefo Liufau run for 5 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
87.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 10 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
87.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-5
87.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 42 COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
87.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 8 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+9
87.3%
Sefo Liufau run for 9 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
86.9%
Donovan Lee run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 15
OPP 40
-5
87.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+17
87.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 17 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+10
87.0%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Spruce, Nelson, PENALTY UCLA holding (Adams, Ishmael) 10 yards to the UCLA18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO.Similar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
86.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
86.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
86.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
87.1%
Diego Gonzalez 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2287% → 87%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.4%
Soso Jamabo run for no gain to the UCLA 20Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
87.3%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+6
87.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 6 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
86.6%
Matt Mengel punt for 45 yds, downed at the Colo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4713% → 13%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
86.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
86.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+6
87.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 6 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 2
OWN 38
-5
86.8%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (Afolabi Laguda) to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
87.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3487% → 86%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.9%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
86.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
86.2%
Matt Mengel punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8INT TD
17 plays · 59 yds · 6:1414% → 10%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
86.3%
Sefo Liufau run for no gain to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
86.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 4 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+7
86.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 7 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
85.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 7 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+8
85.3%
Patrick Carr run for 8 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
85.4%
Patrick Carr run for 8 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+3
84.7%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
84.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 4 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
84.4%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+2
84.8%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
85.3%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
84.2%
Sefo Liufau run for 8 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+5
84.0%
Christian Powell run for 5 yds to the UCLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
83.9%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the UCLA 3Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
84.0%
Donovan Lee run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 8Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+96
88.8%
Ishmael Adams 96 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 3
OWN 3
-15
89.7%
UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ishmael Adams) to the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 3:1611% → 13%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+31
88.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Sean Irwin for 31 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
87.8%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
87.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+10
88.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 10 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
87.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 3 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+5
87.5%
Patrick Carr run for 5 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+2
87.8%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
87.3%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
87.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
87.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
87.4%
Diego Gonzalez 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+82
93.3%
Paul Perkins 82 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11END OF HALF
16 plays · 72 yds · 2:558% → 10%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
91.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 4 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
91.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
91.5%
Sefo Liufau run for no gain to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
92.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 11 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
91.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 3 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+11
91.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 11 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
90.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 5 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
90.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 4 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+21
90.6%
Donovan Lee run for 21 yds to the UCLA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
90.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
90.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyreSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+6
90.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
89.6%
Diego Gonzalez 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:449% → 17%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
90.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
90.6%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+11
90.4%
Patrick Carr run for 11 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
90.0%
Patrick Carr run for 20 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+23
89.4%
Donovan Lee run for 23 yds to the UCLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
89.2%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the UCLA 4Similar
Q3 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
89.2%
Donovan Lee run for 3 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.0%
Donovan Lee 1 Yd Run (Diego Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:3415% → 13%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
85.0%
Patrick Carr run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 1
50
+1
83.7%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
84.0%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-15
83.9%
COLORADO Penalty, Illegal Helmet Contact (-15 Yards) to the Colo 38Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 23
OWN 38
+3
85.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 3 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 20
OWN 41
0
86.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 20
OWN 41
0
86.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 40 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for no gain to the UCLA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:2687% → 94%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
86.5%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+12
86.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 12 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
86.7%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
87.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 4 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+51
87.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 51 yds to the Colo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.5%
Nate Starks 11 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 11 yds · 2:458% → 7%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to George Frazier for 7 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
91.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
91.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 1 yd to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
92.1%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
91.7%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
91.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 8 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.4%
Nelson Spruce pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
91.9%
Donovan Lee run for no gain to the Colo 47Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
92.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
92.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5294% → 94%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
94.4%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+2
94.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 2 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
94.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
94.2%
Matt Mengel punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:128% → 10%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
92.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 9 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+8
91.3%
Donovan Lee run for 8 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
91.6%
Donovan Lee run for 4 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+6
92.5%
Donovan Lee run for 6 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
92.1%
Donovan Lee run for 2 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
92.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+3
93.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
89.6%
Diego Gonzalez 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:2092% → 78%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.4%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
92.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 4 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+19
92.4%
Soso Jamabo run for 19 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
93.1%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Conor McDermott) to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 48
0
92.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
92.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 15
OWN 48
-33
77.7%
Samson Kafovalu 33 Yd Fumble Return (Diego Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0278% → 78%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
78.1%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+7
78.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 7 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.7%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
77.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Starks for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
77.9%
Matt Mengel punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:1526% → 57%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+62
74.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 62 yds to the UCLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
43.3%
Patrick Carr 6 Yd Run (Sefo Liufau Pass to Nelson Spruce for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:2453% → 47%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
52.8%
Nate Starks run for 5 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-1
53.2%
Nate Starks run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 26Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+9
49.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 9 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
51.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
51.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 11 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
53.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
51.1%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
49.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Soso JamaboSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
46.7%
Matt Mengel punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1356% → 55%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
43.9%
Donovan Lee run for 1 yd to the Colo 21Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
42.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 5 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
42.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
44.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:2049% → 81%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
48.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 26 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+41
53.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 38 yds to the Colo 5 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Roughing Passer (Ahkello Witherspoon) to the Colo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.4%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24DOWNS
16 plays · 46 yds · 4:4027% → 27%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
73.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 12 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
71.8%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
69.2%
Patrick Carr run for 5 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
68.3%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
67.9%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (Sully Wiefels) to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+9
72.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 9 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
66.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 8 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
66.3%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
68.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+7
68.8%
Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
69.5%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
65.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
68.3%
Donovan Lee run for 3 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+3
70.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 3 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 4
OPP 23
-6
73.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:1986% → 89%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
86.3%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+15
87.4%
Nate Starks run for no gain to the UCLA 31. COLORADO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.3%
Nate Starks run for no gain to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
89.9%
Nate Starks run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
90.1%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
89.4%
Matt Mengel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:5014% → 12%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
86.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 1 yd to the Colo 21Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-6
87.0%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Aaron Wallace for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 15Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+15
91.3%
UCLA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
89.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 5 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+11
88.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 11 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
87.9%
Sefo Liufau pass intercepted Nate Meadors return for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -17 yds · 0:5195% → 92%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
50
-15
94.6%
UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nate Meadors) to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
94.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-1
92.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:04
Patrick Carr 6 Yd Run (Sefo Liufau Pass to Nelson Spruce for Two-Point Conversion)
-30.8
TD · Q4 8:28
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
+27.8
TD · Q4 14:37
Samson Kafovalu 33 Yd Fumble Return (Diego Gonzalez Kick)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com