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USC

USC 27 at California 21

CAL
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:21 · Cole Leininger punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense+0.4Pregame prior−9.2Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:46: Tre Madden 2 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick) — USC win probability +11.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:23: Jared Goff pass intercepted for a TD Adoree' Jackson return for 46 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +11.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:41: Daniel Lasco 6 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick) — CAL win probability +10.4 pts (now 30%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:42: Alex Wood 43 Yd Field Goal — USC win probability +9.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:52: Stephen Anderson 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick) — CAL win probability +25.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 14:00USC 4th & 3 at CAL 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:59CAL 4th & 1 at USC 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:54USC 4th & 2 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:33CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:21CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:31USC 4th & 11 at CAL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:12CAL 4th & 11 at USC 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    47.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:11USC 4th & 3 at CAL 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:46USC 4th & 1 at CAL 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−3.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−13.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:42USC 4th & 3 at CAL 27, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%−1.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−9.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 10 at USC 37, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    18.6%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:19USC 4th & 1 at CAL 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.8%−3.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−11.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:54CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:39USC 4th & 1 at USC 39, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:13CAL 4th & 6 at USC 38, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:59CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:27USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:46USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:23USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:41CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:52CAL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
37.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 6 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+22
37.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 22 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
37.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 8 yds to the USC 45 Khalfani Muhammad fumbled, forced by Lamar Dawson, recovered by USC Leon McQuay IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
37.7%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-6
37.7%
Jalen Greene run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 41Similar
Q1 14:00
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
37.8%
Kris Albarado punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trevor Davis at the Cal 13Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 14
OWN 41
+11
37.8%
Cody Kessler run for 11 yds to the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 5:1139% → 44%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
38.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
38.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 5 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
38.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
38.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 22 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
38.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 12 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
38.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+7
38.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
39.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+10
39.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 10 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
39.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the USC 15Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
39.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 9 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
38.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the USC 6Similar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
44.1%
Bryce Treggs 6 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
43.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 3 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+10
43.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 10 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
43.4%
USC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the USC 24Similar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+18
43.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 18 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
43.0%
JuJu Smith-Schuster run for 4 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
42.8%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 46Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+4
43.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Dominic Davis for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 2
50
0
43.1%
Kris Albarado punt for 44 yds, downed at the Cal 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+13
46.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 13 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
46.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+1
46.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+9
45.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 45 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 9 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
46.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Cal 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:4253% → 59%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
47.4%
Jalen Greene pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 34 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
45.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 6 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-3
46.4%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+12
47.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 12 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
46.4%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the Cal 13Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
40.6%
Ronald Jones II 13 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
44.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+1
44.2%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+5
43.5%
Jared Goff run for 5 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
43.2%
Cole Leininger punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:5056% → 55%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
43.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 7 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
42.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
50
+3
41.5%
Tre Madden run for 3 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
41.6%
Tre Madden run for 8 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
41.5%
Cody Kessler run for 4 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
41.4%
USC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 40 Timeout USC, clock 08:31Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+5
42.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-5
42.3%
Cody Kessler sacked by Todd Barr for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
44.9%
Kris Albarado punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
47.4%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Davis, Trevor (Hawkins, Chris), PENALTY USC pass interference (Hawkins, Chris) 15 yards to the CAL35, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
47.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 4 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
49.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 7 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
49.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+14
49.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 14 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
49.9%
Daniel Lasco run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 40Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
49.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
48.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
47.3%
Jared Goff punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10FG
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0555% → 61%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+26
45.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 26 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
42.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 5 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+11
41.9%
Tre Madden run for 11 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
41.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 12 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
41.0%
Cody Kessler sacked by Jalen Jefferson for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+18
42.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 18 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
41.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+4
41.0%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
41.9%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
38.9%
Alex Wood 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
44.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
46.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 5:0861% → 72%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
39.2%
Tre Madden run for 5 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+10
37.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 10 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
37.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 3 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+7
37.4%
Tre Madden run for 7 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
37.4%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
37.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+18
38.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 18 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
36.3%
Justin Davis run for 8 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+5
36.3%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
36.3%
Tre Madden run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 13Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+8
36.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+3
37.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
27.8%
Tre Madden 2 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+46
16.8%
Jared Goff pass intercepted for a TD Adoree' Jackson return for 46 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 3:3517% → 30%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
16.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the Cal 20Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+8
16.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 8 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
17.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
17.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 21 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
18.6%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the USC 48Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+15
18.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 15 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
19.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 35 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chris Hawkins) to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
19.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 6 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+8
19.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 8 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
29.9%
Daniel Lasco 6 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:5175% → 88%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
25.0%
Tre Madden run for 3 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+12
24.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 12 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
23.8%
Tre Madden run for 2 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+22
23.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 22 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
22.9%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+1
22.8%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+3
23.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 3 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+43
12.3%
Alex Wood 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16INT
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:3719% → 19%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
19.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 11 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+43
19.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 43 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
22.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+1
24.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
-7
21.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+27
19.0%
Jared Goff pass intercepted Kevon Seymour return for 27 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
50
+9
9.9%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
9.6%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
9.7%
Tre Madden run for 3 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
9.8%
Tre Madden run for 3 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+3
9.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
9.6%
Tre Madden run for 3 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
10.7%
Tre Madden run for no gain to the Cal 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
17.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-3
17.0%
Jared Goff run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
15.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
15.6%
Cole Leininger punt for 42 yds, downed at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
5.9%
Cody Kessler run for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-10
5.9%
Davis, Justin rush left for 2 yards to the USC35 (Nickerson, Hardy;Allensworth, Darius), PENALTY USC holding 10 yards to the USC23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+15
6.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Jalen Greene for 15 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
5.7%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 39Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
5.9%
Kris Albarado punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Trevor Davis at the Cal 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 3:219% → 37%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
9.3%
Jared Goff run for 13 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
9.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 9 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+8
10.9%
Jared Goff run for 8 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
10.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete, broken up by Cameron SmithSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
10.3%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Treggs, Bryce (Lockett, Jonathan), PENALTY USC pass interference (Lockett, Jonathan) 15 yards to the USC42, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
11.8%
Muhammad, Khalfani rush right for 16 yards to the USC26, out-of-bounds (Gustin, Porter;Cravens, Su'a), PENALTY CAL holding (Moore, Steven) 10 yards to the CAL48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 20
OWN 48
0
10.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+7
9.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 7 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+7
10.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 7 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+29
11.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 29 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
36.7%
Stephen Anderson 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21END OF GAME
14 plays · 28 yds · 1:3285% → 93%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
15.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
13.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+14
9.6%
Tre Madden run for 14 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
8.4%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
5.7%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+7
6.3%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
5.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-2
5.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 14
OPP 37
-2
6.7%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:52
Stephen Anderson 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)
+25.7
TD · Q3 9:23
Jared Goff pass intercepted for a TD Adoree' Jackson return for 46 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q3 9:46
Tre Madden 2 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com