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Oregon 61 at Arizona State 55

ASU
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2015 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:16 · Matt Haack punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 15 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3Play 152Home team on offense+7.4Pregame prior+2.1Garbage-time factor+2.5Score differential+0.7Time remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 0:12: Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 8 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +38.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · OT 0:00: Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 25 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +38.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds for a TD Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds for a TD Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +38.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · OT2 0:00: Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +43.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT3 0:00: Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ORE win probability +32.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:46ORE 4th & 7 at ASU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 27, up 3
    Close callPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:32ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:24ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:04ASU 4th & 14 at ORE 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:56ORE 4th & 5 at ASU 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:00ORE 4th & 1 at ASU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−2.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:28ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:07ASU 4th & 6 at ORE 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:39ASU 4th & 6 at ORE 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−9.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:16ASU 4th & 10 at ORE 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:41ASU 4th & 11 at ORE 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−3.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−13.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:41ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:45ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:42ORE 4th & 1 at ASU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−5.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−11.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:12ORE 4th & 8 at ASU 8, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.9 ptsWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%−6.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−17.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:21ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:36ASU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:00ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:33ASU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:27ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:06ASU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:36ORE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:49ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−1.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:12ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:1443% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
57.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+19
57.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Evan Baylis for 19 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+46
57.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 46 yds to the ArzSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
57.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Jalen Brown for 1 yd to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
57.3%
Bralon Addison run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
57.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q1 12:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
57.4%
Aidan Schneider 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:0257% → 57%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
57.4%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+1
57.6%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+10
57.5%
Demario Richard run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
57.7%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
57.7%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
57.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
57.2%
Matt Haack punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2643% → 43%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
57.3%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+8
57.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Evan Baylis for 8 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-1
57.3%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
57.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 56 yds, downed at the ArzSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5957% → 57%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
57.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
56.9%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+7
56.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 7 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
56.9%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+1
57.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 1 yd to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
56.7%
Matt Haack punt for 35 yds, downed at the Oregn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:4643% → 47%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
56.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 8 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
56.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 1 yd to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+64
53.1%
Royce Freeman run for 64 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6MISSED FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:2454% → 51%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
53.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
54.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
53.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+30
53.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 30 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
54.7%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
53.5%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+7
53.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+7
51.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
52.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the Oregn 5Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 0
OPP 5
-5
53.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 10Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
52.0%
Mike Bercovici run for 2 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
51.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 0
OPP 8
+26
50.7%
Zane Gonzalez 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1849% → 49%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
50.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
50.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
50.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+1
51.0%
Ian Wheeler punt for 37 yds , Gump Hayes returns for 1 yd to the ArzSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:5850% → 47%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
50.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 13 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
50.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Kody Kohl) to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+1
50.0%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
49.8%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+18
48.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 18 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
50.2%
Frederick Gammage sacked by Henry Mondeaux for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+8
49.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 8 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-8
48.7%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Alex Balducci for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+52
46.5%
Zane Gonzalez 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4453% → 54%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
47.4%
Royce Freeman run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
50
+2
46.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 2 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
45.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 7 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-4
45.8%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
46.3%
Ian Wheeler punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:0445% → 56%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
45.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 18 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
45.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+31
46.2%
Demario Richard run for 31 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
47.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 3 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-5
47.5%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Evan Goodman) to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+7
46.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 7 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+6
45.3%
Mike Bercovici run for 6 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
46.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 10 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
56.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 1:5449% → 60%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
51.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for no gain to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
51.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Devon Allen for 11 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
50.3%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Darren Carrington) to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+20
51.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 20 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
48.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
48.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+9
49.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Jalen Brown for 9 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+39
40.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 39 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 0
OPP 3
+1
40.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the ArzSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0141% → 53%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.6%
D.J. Foster run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
41.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
50
+11
42.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 11 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
42.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
42.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+39
53.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 39 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5750% → 48%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-8
48.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Viliami Latu and Salamo Fiso for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
51.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Gump Hayes at the ArzSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:1552% → 48%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
51.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 22 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
54.0%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Tui Talia for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
48.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+8
46.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 8 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+54
47.7%
Zane Gonzalez 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
46.6%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 2:5652% → 59%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.8%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
51.4%
Demario Richard run for 16 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
54.0%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
54.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+9
53.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 9 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
54.7%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+9
54.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 9 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
55.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+17
55.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 17 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
55.6%
Mike Bercovici run for 4 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
55.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
53.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Ellis JeffersonSimilar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
59.3%
Zane Gonzalez 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass intercepted Kareem Orr return for no gain to the Oregn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:5362% → 76%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
61.6%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Tyson Coleman for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 44 Mike Bercovici fumbled, forced by Tyson Coleman, recovered by ArzSt William McGehee , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 13
OPP 44
-1
60.0%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+13
58.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 13 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+10
59.9%
Bercovici, Mike pass incomplete, PENALTY OREGON holding (Hardrick, Rodney) 10 yards to the OREGON22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST.Similar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
76.4%
Demario Richard run for 22 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 3:1729% → 36%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
72.2%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
69.4%
Darren Carrington run for 21 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
67.8%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+24
67.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 24 yds to the ArzSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
65.8%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
66.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
66.0%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 0
OPP 4
-15
64.7%
Adams Jr., Vernon pass incomplete to Addison, Bralon, PENALTY OREGON pass interference 15 yards to the ARIZONAST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
66.0%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 0
OPP 19
0
65.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 0
OPP 19
0
67.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+37
64.1%
Aidan Schneider 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4968% → 84%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
68.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 11 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+34
69.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 34 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
72.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
72.0%
Mike Bercovici run for 4 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+25
71.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 25 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:5069% → 72%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
68.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 33 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
72.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
72.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-5
71.9%
Mike Bercovici sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 10
OPP 42
+12
68.3%
Matt Haack punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 15 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-5
72.2%
Mike Bercovici sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:2434% → 59%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
65.8%
Kani Benoit run for 8 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+62
41.5%
Kani Benoit run for 62 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:4948% → 58%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
47.7%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
51.0%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+8
50.1%
Mike Bercovici run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
51.7%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
52.2%
Mike Bercovici run for 5 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
52.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 23 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
54.5%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the Oregn 14Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-1
54.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kalen Ballage for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
49.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
58.3%
Zane Gonzalez 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4447% → 45%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
53.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Viliami Moeakiola for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
53.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for no gain to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+15
55.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 15 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
55.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 46 yds , Gump Hayes returns for 15 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:4160% → 88%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
59.8%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
61.0%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+6
59.7%
D.J. Foster run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+29
62.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 29 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
64.4%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+13
64.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 13 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
64.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Frederick GammageSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
64.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q4 7:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 5 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5317% → 14%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
82.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
84.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Salamo Fiso for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 15
OWN 24
0
85.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 15
OWN 24
0
86.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 51 yds, downed at the ArzSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 28INT
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:1389% → 91%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.8%
Mike Bercovici run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
89.4%
Mike Bercovici run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
90.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 13 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
91.1%
Mike Bercovici pass intercepted Tyree Robinson return for 19 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29TD
17 plays · 60 yds · 4:1816% → 52%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
83.7%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-7
84.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Jordan Simone for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+28
88.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 28 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
83.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 7 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+1
80.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 1 yd to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+10
82.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Lloyd Carrington) to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
79.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
80.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 9 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
81.4%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
86.9%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
83.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
83.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q4 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.0%
Bralon Addison pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
47.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 8 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
59.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 31TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
20.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 25 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 32TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 62%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
28.1%
D.J. Foster run for 7 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+1
28.1%
Mike Bercovici run for 1 yd to the Oregn 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+9
25.8%
Mike Bercovici run for 9 yds to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-5
33.2%
Bercovici, Mike pass incomplete to Lucien, Devin, PENALTY ARIZONAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the OREGON13, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
0
24.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Gary ChambersSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
23.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 11 yds to the Oregn 2Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds for a TD Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds for a TD Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 33TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 76%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
64.7%
Mike Bercovici run for 7 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
64.7%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the Oregn 18Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
75.7%
Mike Bercovici run for 18 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 34TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 59%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
80.4%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
80.4%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 8Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+1
79.3%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 7Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+6
83.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.6%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 35TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 90%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
40.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Cameron Hunt) to the ArzSt 30Similar
OT3 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+10
42.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
OT3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
9.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 36Uncategorized
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+22
31.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 22 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
32.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
OT3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
31.5%
Mike Bercovici pass intercepted, touchback. Arrion Springs return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT2 0:00
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-43.3
TD · Q4 0:12
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 8 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-38.7
TD · OT 0:00
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds for a TD Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds for a TD Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+38.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com