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CAL

California 24 at UCLA 40

UCLA
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2015 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.6UCLA 91.6%Ka'imi Fairbairn 20 Yd Field GoalAWAY 3 - HOME 23 · Q2 2:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:49 · Ka'imi Fairbairn 20 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Home team on offense+18.5Score differential+14.1Pregame prior+8.8Garbage-time factor+6.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:23: Devin Fuller 19 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) — UCLA win probability +7.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:49: Ka'imi Fairbairn 20 Yd Field Goal — UCLA win probability +4.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:51: Kenny Lawler 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick) — CAL win probability +10.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:13: Devin Fuller 21 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) — UCLA win probability +8.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:53: Darius Powe 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CAL win probability +4.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
  1. Q1 9:43CAL 4th & 4 at UCLA 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.7%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:09UCLA 4th & 15 at CAL 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:47CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:01UCLA 4th & 1 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.7%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:11UCLA 4th & 6 at CAL 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:51CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 25, down 17
    Numbers favored punt by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:49UCLA 4th & 1 at CAL 1, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−8.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:13CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 29, down 23
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:41UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 36, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:11CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 36, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:39CAL 4th & 7 at UCLA 17, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:11CAL 4th & 11 at UCLA 34, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:22UCLA 4th & 2 at CAL 35, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.3
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:58CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:00CAL 4th & 9 at UCLA 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:46UCLA 4th & 10 at CAL 45, up 16
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−<0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 1:42UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:23UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:51CAL Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:13UCLA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:53CAL Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:59UCLA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:00CAL Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 5:1234% → 35%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
66.1%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
66.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 14 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
66.0%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
65.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 1
50
+9
65.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 9 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
65.7%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
65.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+9
65.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 9 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
65.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 15 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
65.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
65.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Vic Enwere for 2 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+4
65.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 4 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
65.1%
Matt Anderson 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:3265% → 65%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
65.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 12 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
65.3%
Paul Perkins run for 12 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
65.7%
Paul Perkins run for 12 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
65.6%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+11
65.8%
Paul Perkins run for 11 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
65.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for no gain to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
65.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 6 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-15
65.4%
Rosen, Josh pass complete to Fuller, Devin for 7 yards to the CALIFORNIA9, PENALTY UCLA pass interference 15 yards to the CALIFORNIA31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 19
OPP 31
+4
64.7%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 15
OPP 27
+44
64.9%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5635% → 35%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
64.6%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
64.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
65.4%
Harry Adolphus punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:2666% → 71%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
65.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 7 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
66.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 5 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
66.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 6 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+6
66.3%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
66.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
66.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+12
65.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 12 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
66.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Stephen Johnson for 9 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+5
67.0%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
67.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 6 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+7
67.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 7 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
67.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q1 1:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
70.9%
Thomas Duarte 7 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4731% → 30%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
69.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 15 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
68.8%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 4
50
0
68.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
50
-5
68.6%
Jared Goff sacked by Aaron Wallace for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
70.3%
Cole Leininger punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 3:3070% → 79%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
70.1%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
70.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 6 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+9
69.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 9 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.5%
Soso Jamabo run for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
71.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
70.8%
Josh Rosen run for 9 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+16
71.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 16 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
72.1%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+23
71.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 23 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
79.2%
Devin Fuller 19 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3523% → 22%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.7%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
77.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Jordan Rigsbee) to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
77.3%
Jared Goff run for 2 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen AndersonSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
78.2%
Cole Leininger punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 3:3580% → 85%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
79.6%
Rosen, Josh pass incomplete to Payton, Jordan, PENALTY UCLA holding (Benenoch, Caleb) 10 yards to the UCLA31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+2
79.0%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+9
79.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 9 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-5
79.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Darren Andrews) to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+13
79.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 1
50
+12
78.8%
Paul Perkins run for 12 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
80.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 10 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
80.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
80.5%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+19
80.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 19 yds to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
81.0%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
81.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
84.7%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:1918% → 17%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.9%
Harry Adolphus run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:0186% → 92%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
85.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Devin FullerSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
85.7%
Soso Jamabo run for 8 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+6
85.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 6 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
86.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+11
86.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 11 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
86.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the Cal 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
86.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.1%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the Cal 1Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 2:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+20
91.6%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:5710% → 21%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
91.0%
Goff, Jared pass incomplete to Powe, Darius, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Wadood, Jaleel) 9 yards to the CALIFORNIA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
90.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 11 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
90.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 14 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+36
89.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 36 yds to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
89.3%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.8%
Kenny Lawler 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12END OF HALF
12 plays · 33 yds · 0:5084% → 87%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
84.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 18 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
85.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 6 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+13
83.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 13 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
83.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
83.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Soso Jamabo for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 15
OPP 37
-5
82.3%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Najee Toran) to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 42
+60
86.5%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 60 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4185% → 95%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
84.7%
Josh Rosen run for 1 yd to the UCLA 21Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+33
84.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 33 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
85.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 7 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+7
85.5%
Soso Jamabo run for 7 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
85.9%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
86.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 8 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
85.7%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
94.6%
Devin Fuller 21 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:536% → 6%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
93.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 7 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+6
93.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 6 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
94.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+39
94.3%
Cole Leininger punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 27 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2695% → 95%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
95.1%
Jamabo, Soso rush for 6 yards to the UCLA38, PENALTY UCLA holding (Lacy, Kenny) 10 yards to the UCLA22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 20
OWN 22
0
95.1%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Soso JamaboSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 20
OWN 22
-2
95.1%
Josh Rosen sacked by Todd Barr for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 22
OWN 20
+16
95.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 16 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
95.2%
Kenneth Walker III punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bryce Treggs at the Cal 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:485% → 9%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
95.2%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
95.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 6 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
95.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 1 yd to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+2
95.6%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+42
95.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 42 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
95.3%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
95.7%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+10
95.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 10 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
95.6%
Jared Goff run for 6 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.0%
Darius Powe 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5493% → 98%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 12 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
93.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 16 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
93.3%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+27
93.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 27 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
93.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Stephen Johnson for 13 yds to the Cal 5 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kenneth Walker III) to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 7
OPP 15
+3
93.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+9
93.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 9 yds to the Cal 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
94.1%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
Soso Jamabo 1 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 33 yds · 3:472% → 2%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 9 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
97.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 6 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
97.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 3 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
97.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+12
97.8%
Jared Goff run for 12 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
98.0%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
98.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 1 yd to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+8
98.1%
Jared Goff run for 8 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.9%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
98.0%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-4
98.3%
Jared Goff sacked by Kenny Clark for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 11
OPP 34
-8
98.4%
Jared Goff sacked by Takkarist McKinley and Kenny Clark for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
98.7%
Rosen, Josh pass incomplete to Payton, Jordan, PENALTY CALIFORNIA pass interference (White, Darius) 15 yards to the CALIFORNIA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCLA.Similar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
98.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 6 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+1
98.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
98.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
98.7%
Josh Rosen punt for 25 yds, downed at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:241% → 1%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
98.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 8 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+9
98.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 9 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
98.7%
Jared Goff sacked by Aaron Wallace for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+9
98.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 9 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
98.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+12
98.9%
Cole Leininger punt for 49 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 12 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:3699% → 99%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
98.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 8 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
99.1%
Soso Jamabo run for no gain to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+2
99.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
99.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 3
50
+12
99.3%
Soso Jamabo run for 12 yds to the Cal 38 Soso Jamabo fumbled, forced by Nathan Broussard, recovered by Cal Griffin PiattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:221% → 3%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.2%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 5
OWN 44
0
99.2%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+10
99.3%
Jared Goff run for 10 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.3%
Jeffrey Coprich run for 7 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+10
99.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Jeffrey Coprich for 10 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
99.2%
Vic Enwere run for 7 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+3
99.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 3 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.2%
Jeffrey Coprich run for 4 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
99.3%
Jeffrey Coprich run for 3 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 3
OPP 12
-6
99.4%
Jared Goff sacked by Aaron Wallace and Kenny Young for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+18
96.9%
Khalfani Muhammad 18 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jared Goff Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:1398% → 99%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
98.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-2
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-1
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
98.5%
Kenneth Walker III punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Treggs at the Cal 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 52 yds · 0:462% → 2%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
97.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+15
97.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 15 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
97.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 10 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
97.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Jeffrey Coprich for 6 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+9
98.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 9 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
97.9%
Jeffrey Coprich run for 12 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:51
Kenny Lawler 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)
-10.4
TD · Q3 12:13
Devin Fuller 21 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
+8.9
TD · Q2 11:23
Devin Fuller 19 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com