Try the model
ARIZ

Arizona 38 at Colorado 31

COLO
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Folsom Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:01 · Alex Kinney punt for 50 yds , Nate Phillips returns for 5 yds to the Ariz 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior−18.1Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:26: Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +12.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:51: Sefo Liufau run for 4 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +15.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:24: Jared Baker run for 45 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +26.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:17: Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 25 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +25.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:19: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 30 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +24.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 12ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 14:01ARIZ 4th & 10 at COLO 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:01COLO 4th & 21 at COLO 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:21COLO 4th & 4 at ARIZ 25, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:30COLO 4th & 2 at ARIZ 3, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.9%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:25ARIZ 4th & 8 at COLO 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:02COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:29ARIZ 4th & 4 at COLO 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:17ARIZ 4th & 16 at COLO 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:17COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:02ARIZ 4th & 3 at COLO 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:44ARIZ 4th & 6 at COLO 40, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−1.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:05COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:09ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−2.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:45COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:25ARIZ 4th & 5 at COLO 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:12COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:15COLO 4th & 5 at ARIZ 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:05COLO 4th & 29 at COLO 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−5.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:22COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 39, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:46ARIZ 4th & 6 at COLO 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:38COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.0%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:15ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:31COLO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:53ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:26COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:51COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:24ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:17ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:40ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−1.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:19COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:5968% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.7%
Jared Baker run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+44
31.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 44 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
31.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
31.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
31.7%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
32.0%
Casey Skowron 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
32.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 11 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
32.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
32.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 8 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
32.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-9
32.1%
Shay Fields run for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 18
OWN 40
-3
32.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 21
OWN 37
+5
32.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 50 yds , Nate Phillips returns for 5 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:3267% → 68%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
33.2%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+79
31.9%
Jared Baker run for 79 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:3732% → 34%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
32.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+72
33.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 72 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3866% → 69%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
33.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 34 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
33.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
33.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 2 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+34
33.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 34 yds to the Colo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.0%
Jared Baker run for no gain to the Colo 5Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
31.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Josh Kern for 5 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:2332% → 32%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
32.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 12 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
32.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 12 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
32.5%
Lindsay,Phillip rush for 6 yards to the ARIZ46 (Parks, W.;Matthews, J.), PENALTY COLO holding (Callahan, Shane) 10 yards to the COLO38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+8
32.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 8 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+23
32.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 23 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
32.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
32.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
32.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Ken CrawleySimilar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
32.4%
Diego Gonzalez 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.8%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
31.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 7 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
31.5%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+11
31.2%
Tyrell Johnson run for 11 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
31.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 6 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-7
31.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Colo Jordan CarrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 5:1032% → 33%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
32.1%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 9
50
+15
32.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 15 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
32.7%
Carr, Patrick rush for 2 yards to the ARIZ33 (Zellers, P.), PENALTY COLO holding 10 yards to the ARIZ45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 20
OPP 45
-4
32.0%
Patrick Carr run for 6 yds to the Ariz 39 COLORADO Penalty, Offensive holding (Stephane Nembot) to the Ariz 49Similar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 24
OPP 49
+15
31.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 15 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+11
32.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 11 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
32.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+1
32.7%
Christian Powell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+6
31.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
32.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
32.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay Fields, broken up by Cam DensonSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+8
32.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 8 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+20
32.9%
Diego Gonzalez 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
32.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 9 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
31.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
31.7%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
31.6%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
31.6%
Tyrell Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
31.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 6 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
31.0%
Jared Baker run for 12 yds to the Colo 42 Jared Baker fumbled, recovered by Ariz Cayleb Jones for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-13
30.7%
Anu Solomon sacked by Chidobe Awuzie for a loss of 13 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 23
OWN 45
+10
31.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 10 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 13
OPP 45
0
31.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 13
OPP 45
+5
32.5%
COLORADO Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
31.6%
Drew Riggleman punt for 19 yds, downed at the Colo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
32.0%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
32.1%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-5
31.4%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Gerrad Kough) to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+4
31.2%
Donovan Lee run for 4 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
30.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Samajie Grant at the Ariz 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
31.2%
Tyrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
30.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 5 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
30.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 4 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
30.6%
Anu Solomon run for 6 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
30.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
30.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb Jones, broken up by Tedric ThompsonSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
31.5%
Drew Riggleman punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
30.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 2 yds Shay Fields fumbled, forced by Cam Denson, recovered by Ariz Paul Magloire Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13MISSED FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:1672% → 69%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
28.5%
Jared Baker run for no gain to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-10
28.8%
Solomon, A. pass incomplete to Richards, D., PENALTY ARIZ holding (Tagaloa, F.) 10 yards to the COLO32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 20
OPP 32
0
29.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 20
OPP 32
+4
29.9%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+45
31.5%
Casey Skowron 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
31.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
30.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
31.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
30.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 38 yds , Trey Griffey returns for no gain to the Ariz 24 Trey Griffey fumbled, recovered by Colo Jaleel Awini , return for no gain to the Ariz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5535% → 47%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
34.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+10
34.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 10 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
34.6%
N/A run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 13Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
34.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 11 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.5%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:1860% → 60%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
40.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 4 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-1
39.8%
N/A sacked by Derek McCartney for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+27
41.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 27 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
37.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 9 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 1
OPP 39
-2
36.9%
Anu Solomon sacked by Grant Watanabe for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 41Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
38.3%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
39.8%
Drew Riggleman punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
45.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+3
45.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0445% → 64%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
45.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
46.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
45.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Sean Irwin for 5 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+47
46.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Sean Irwin for 47 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
49.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
49.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
48.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 4 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
58.9%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+13
57.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 13 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
56.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 2 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+10
56.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 10 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
55.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-4
55.8%
Anu Solomon sacked by Justin Solis for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+8
59.0%
Anu Solomon run for 8 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
57.7%
Drew Riggleman punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
64.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 7 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+10
65.1%
Patrick Carr run for 10 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
65.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
65.3%
Patrick Carr run for 6 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-5
65.8%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Sean Irwin) to the Colo 38Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
64.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Ken CrawleySimilar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
62.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
62.7%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
62.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Josh Kern for 10 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
61.8%
Jared Baker run for 1 yd to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
61.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb Jones, broken up by Ryan MoellerSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
63.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
64.5%
Drew Riggleman punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 6 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
69.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
68.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyreSimilar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
67.4%
Alex Kinney punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
64.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 12 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
62.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 5 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
61.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
62.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David Richards, broken up by John WalkerSimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
65.1%
Drew Riggleman punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
70.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
70.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+17
69.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive holding (Jace Whittaker) to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
73.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Phillip LindsaySimilar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
72.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
70.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
69.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 54 yds, downed at the Ariz 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25TD
6 plays · 97 yds · 1:3029% → 58%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
70.6%
Jerrard Randall run for 15 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
69.9%
Jared Baker run for 7 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
68.8%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Samajie Grant for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+18
71.7%
Jerrard Randall run for 18 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
68.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 12 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
42.4%
Jared Baker run for 45 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
52.1%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
53.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 10 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
55.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
53.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Phillip LindsaySimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+7
51.0%
Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
52.4%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds, downed at the Ariz 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 2:4451% → 84%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
48.6%
Jerrard Randall run for 9 yds to the Ariz 15 Jerrard Randall fumbled, forced by Ryan Moeller, recovered by Ariz Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+5
47.8%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
47.7%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 31 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
42.7%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
42.7%
Jerrard Randall run for 4 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+11
43.4%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 11 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
41.1%
Jerrard Randall run for 7 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+25
15.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 25 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -19 yds · 0:0025% → 21%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
24.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
24.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-18
22.8%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Jack Banda for a loss of 18 yards to the Colo 15Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 29
OWN 15
+8
21.4%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds , Nate Phillips returns for 8 yds to the Colo 23 COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (Christian Shaver) to the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 29TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:4085% → 96%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
14.9%
Jared Baker run for 12 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
14.7%
Jared Baker run for 6 yds to the Colo 17Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
14.7%
Jerrard Randall run for 3 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
15.3%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the Colo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
14.7%
Jerrard Randall run for 6 yds to the Colo 6Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+5
14.7%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the Colo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.8%
Jerrard Randall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 30TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 2:145% → 28%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
5.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
5.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 5 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+8
5.3%
Sefo Liufau run for 8 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
5.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
5.4%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Jack Banda for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 15
OWN 39
0
3.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Phillip LindsaySimilar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 15
OWN 39
+16
3.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 16 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
3.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 4 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
3.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 9 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
4.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+30
27.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 30 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 31PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:3292% → 95%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
7.8%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
7.4%
Jerrard Randall run for 4 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
7.4%
Jerrard Randall run for 2 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-5
5.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (Freddie Tagaloa) to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
5.4%
Drew Riggleman punt for 38 yds, downed at the Colo 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 32END OF GAME
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
8.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Lee WalkerSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+6
7.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the Colo 12Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
8.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Lee WalkerSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 4
OWN 12
+6
7.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 6 yds to the Colo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
8.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
8.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 8 yds to the Colo 17 lat. to Devin Ross for 1 yd Devin Ross fumbled, recovered by Colo Phillip Lindsay , return for a loss of 10 yards to the Colo 8 COLORADO Penalty, illegal forward pass (Phillip Lindsay) to the Colo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:24
Jared Baker run for 45 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
-26.5
TD · Q4 9:17
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 25 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
-25.5
TD · Q4 2:19
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 30 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)
+24.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com