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UCLA

UCLA 35 at Stanford 56

STAN
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2015 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD—STAN 99.8%Josh Rosen pass complete to ThomasDuarte for 38 yds for a TD, (JoshRosen pass to Nate Starks forTwo-Point Conversion)AWAY 28 - HOME 56 · Q4 11:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:00 · Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 38 yds for a TD, (Josh Rosen pass to Nate Starks for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense+34.4Score differential+30.6Pregame prior+2.5Blowout margin+15.6Garbage-time factor+10.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:17: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 9 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +4.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:00: Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +6.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:13: Christian McCaffrey run for 28 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +7.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:11: Paul Perkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — STAN win probability +4.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:48: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 41 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +6.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:44STAN 4th & 2 at UCLA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    64.4%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:43UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:06STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:15UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 10, down 11
    Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:34UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:48UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:35UCLA 4th & 12 at STAN 15, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:46UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 34, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:26UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 36, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:43STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 40, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:29STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:14UCLA 4th & 24 at UCLA 24, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:58STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 43, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:09UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 42, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:01UCLA 4th & 4 at STAN 18, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 10:54STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:04STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:46UCLA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:17STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:00STAN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:13STAN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:11UCLA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:48STAN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:35STAN Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:07STAN Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:00UCLA Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:01UCLA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:0864% → 64%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
63.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
50
+7
63.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 7 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
63.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
63.9%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
63.8%
Jake Bailey punt for 34 yds, downed at the UCLA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2INT TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3036% → 35%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
63.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 12 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
63.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 1 yd to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
63.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 8 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-14
63.5%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-14 Yards) to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+31
65.1%
Josh Rosen pass intercepted for a TD Alijah Holder return for 31 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:1335% → 35%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
64.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 18 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
64.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 8 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+43
64.7%
Paul Perkins run for 43 yds to the Stanf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-5
64.6%
UCLA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 15Similar
Q1 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+2
64.8%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 0
OPP 13
-10
64.6%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Stanf 23Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 0
OPP 23
+2
64.8%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 0
OPP 21
+3
65.2%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the Stanf 18Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+36
64.8%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 4 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
65.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 70 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6TD
17 plays · 74 yds · 7:0665% → 72%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
64.8%
Barry Sanders run for 6 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
65.1%
Kevin Hogan run for 3 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
65.0%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
65.3%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+2
64.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
64.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Christian McCaffreySimilar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+16
64.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 16 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
66.1%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 46 Bryce Love fumbled, recovered by Stanf Bryce LoveSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+3
65.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+22
65.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 22 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
67.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+6
67.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
66.6%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
67.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+9
72.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 9 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2328% → 26%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
71.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 14Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 14
-5
72.1%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 17 UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (-8 Yards) to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+11
72.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 11 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
72.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
73.6%
Matt Mengel punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1373% → 73%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
72.9%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
74.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
73.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
73.1%
Alex Robinson punt for 58 yds, downed at the UCLA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3825% → 24%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
74.7%
Paul Perkins run for 8 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 2
OWN 10
-5
74.2%
UCLA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+6
75.5%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 1
OWN 11
-1
75.4%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 10Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
75.8%
Matt Mengel punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 0:5876% → 83%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
76.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Greg Taboada for 28 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
76.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
82.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1919% → 19%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Devin FullerSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
80.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
81.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
81.5%
Matt Mengel punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 5:0483% → 94%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
83.0%
Barry Sanders run for 6 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+6
83.3%
Barry Sanders run for 6 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
84.1%
Barry Sanders run for 1 yd to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+4
84.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 4 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+6
84.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
85.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+6
85.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
85.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+28
93.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 28 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 1:4815% → 18%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
85.4%
Paul Perkins run for 14 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
84.2%
Josh Rosen run for 10 yds to the UCLA 44 UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
85.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+17
86.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 17 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
82.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
82.6%
Paul Perkins run for 10 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
80.3%
Nate Starks run for 6 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
80.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 1 yd to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+15
80.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 15 yds to the Stanf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
82.4%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Stanf 17Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 5
OPP 17
+14
83.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 14 yds to the Stanf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.0%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
86.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4514% → 13%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
85.9%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 18Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+1
86.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 1 yd to the UCLA 19Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
86.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Devin FullerSimilar
Q3 13:48
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
86.7%
Matt Mengel punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 0:4290% → 97%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
89.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
89.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Christian McCaffreySimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+15
89.7%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
96.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 41 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17INT
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:305% → 4%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
95.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 7 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+20
95.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 20 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-9
95.4%
Josh Rosen sacked by Peter Kalambayi for a loss of 9 yards to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 19
OWN 49
+16
95.2%
Paul Perkins run for 16 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
95.6%
Josh Rosen pass intercepted Kodi Whitfield return for no gain to the Stanf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0597% → 98%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
97.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+6
97.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
97.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+11
97.6%
Kevin Hogan pass intercepted Randall Goforth return for 11 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:364% → 4%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
96.3%
Soso Jamabo run for 10 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
96.3%
Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the Stanf 22Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+9
96.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 9 yds to the Stanf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
96.6%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
96.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Soso JamaboSimilar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
97.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Nate IeseSimilar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 7
OPP 10
-5
97.1%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 15Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+33
95.6%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1996% → 100%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
99.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 70 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:101% → 1%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 9 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
99.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+5
99.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+7
99.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the UCLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
99.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 15 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Paul PerkinsSimilar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Matt Mengel punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Barry Sanders run for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.7%
Barry Sanders run for 8 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.7%
Barry Sanders run for 4 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Barry Sanders run for no gain to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Alex Robinson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 8 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+37
99.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 37 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
99.8%
UCLA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 15
OPP 37
-1
99.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 16
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Bolu OlorunfunmiSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+38
99.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 38 yds for a TD, (Josh Rosen pass to Nate Starks for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Keller Chryst run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
99.8%
Barry Sanders run for 1 yd to the Stanf 28Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.8%
Barry Sanders run for 4 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Alex Robinson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Devin FullerSimilar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+17
99.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 17 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
99.9%
Josh Rosen sacked by Nate Lohn for a loss of 9 yards to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
Soso Jamabo run for 4 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 15
OWN 33
-9
99.9%
Josh Rosen sacked by Mike Tyler for a loss of 9 yards to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 24
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Matt Mengel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Barry Sanders at the Stanf 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
99.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+8
99.9%
Keller Chryst run for 8 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Bryce LoveSimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Alex Robinson punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 29TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 2:320% → 1%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
99.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-10
99.9%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 22
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Logan SweetSimilar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 22
OWN 24
+18
99.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 18 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+19
99.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 19 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
99.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Stanf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Logan SweetSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 6 yds to the Stanf 18Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Stephen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+18
99.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 18 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
99.8%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:13
Christian McCaffrey run for 28 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q3 12:48
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 41 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q2 8:00
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com