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ORST

Oregon State 7 at Arizona 44

ARIZ
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Drew Riggleman punt for 48 yds, downed at the OrgSt 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Pregame prior+9.4Home team on offense+32.3Score differential+27.8Blowout margin+14.4Garbage-time factor+11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:52: Casey Skowron 27 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +3.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:59: Seth Collins run for 17 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +5.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 10:17: Nick Wilson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +6.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:06: Orlando Bradford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +6.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:44: Orlando Bradford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +4.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:54ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:14ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:19ARIZ 4th & 9 at ORST 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:19ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 24, down 10
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:52ARIZ 4th & 6 at ORST 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:06ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 24, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:02ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 31, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:55ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 22, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 30, down 27
    Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:25ARIZ 4th & 3 at ORST 3, up 27
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−2.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:18ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 45, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:32ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 38, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 45, up 37
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:42ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 26, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:50ARIZ 4th & 6 at ORST 18, up 37
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:27ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 14, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:02ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:59ORST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:17ARIZ Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:06ARIZ Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:44ARIZ Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:37ARIZ Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:5884% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.5%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
83.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 14 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
83.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 4 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
83.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for no gain to the Ariz 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+50
83.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 50 yds to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
83.3%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.3%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.5%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
83.3%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
83.3%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
83.3%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 5 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
83.3%
Nick Porebski punt for 32 yds, downed at the Ariz 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
83.4%
Nick Wilson run for 12 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
83.4%
Anu Solomon sacked by Lavonte Barnett for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 13
OWN 36
-7
83.4%
Tyrell Johnson run for 8 yds to the Ariz 44 ARIZONA Penalty, IB (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+18
83.3%
Nick Wilson run for 18 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
83.5%
Jared Baker run for 1 yd to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
83.4%
Drew Riggleman punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
83.2%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 6 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
83.1%
Seth Collins run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
83.1%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
83.1%
Paul Lucas run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
83.0%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
83.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 54 yds, downed at the Ariz 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5FG
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:5883% → 84%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
83.1%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+73
83.1%
Jared Baker run for 73 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
83.7%
Orlando Bradford run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
83.7%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+4
83.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 20 to Anu Solomon for 4 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
83.5%
Casey Skowron 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
83.7%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
83.7%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
83.7%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
83.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Samajie Grant at the Ariz 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 2:4884% → 87%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
84.1%
Nick Wilson run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
84.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 5 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+14
84.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
84.2%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
84.2%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
84.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
83.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+1
83.5%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+5
83.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 5 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+22
83.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for 22 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
86.7%
Casey Skowron 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 4:4614% → 20%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
85.7%
Seth Collins run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+4
85.5%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.8%
Seth Collins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
85.8%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 10 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
85.5%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
85.2%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+14
85.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
85.1%
Paul Lucas run for 4 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
85.0%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 5 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
85.0%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
84.8%
Seth Collins pass complete to Brent VanderVeen for 14 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
79.7%
Seth Collins run for 17 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:3582% → 89%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+70
82.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 70 yds to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
88.6%
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10INT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.5%
Seth Collins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-13
86.5%
Seth Collins run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30 OREGON ST Penalty, IB (-15 Yards) to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
86.7%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Will ParksSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+6
86.8%
Seth Collins pass intercepted Anthony Fotu return for 6 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Orlando Bradford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
Q2 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
93.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, offside defense (4 Yards) to the OrgSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.7%
Seth Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
92.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Datrin Guyton, broken up by Jarvis McCall Jr.Similar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
92.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:3693% → 98%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
93.3%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
93.5%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
93.3%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
93.5%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
93.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 4 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
93.4%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
93.5%
Orlando Bradford run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
93.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+8
93.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 8 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
93.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Johnny JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
93.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Johnny JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+11
93.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 11 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
93.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 18 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
93.5%
Orlando Bradford run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.8%
Orlando Bradford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
99.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 5 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+6
98.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 6 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
98.9%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
98.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-8
98.7%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Jake Matthews for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
99.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Samajie Grant at the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
98.1%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
98.1%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-5
98.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
98.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
97.9%
Drew Riggleman punt for 61 yds, downed at the OrgSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16END OF HALF
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:351% → 1%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
98.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 7 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 3
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+8
98.8%
Storm Woods run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+24
98.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden for 24 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete, broken up by Cayleb JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
98.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
98.4%
Storm Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+5
98.4%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 5 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+10
98.5%
Seth Collins pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 10 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
98.4%
Seth Collins pass incomplete, broken up by Jarvis McCall Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
98.4%
Storm Woods run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
98.3%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
98.3%
Nick Porebski punt for 49 yds, downed at the Ariz 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18FG
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:2399% → 99%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
99.0%
Jared Baker run for 19 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
99.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 18 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
99.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 19 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-17
99.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the OrgSt 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ariz Anu SolomonSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+17
99.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 17 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.1%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.1%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.0%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 27
OPP 40
+14
99.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 14 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
99.3%
Casey Skowron 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+20
99.4%
Storm Woods run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.3%
Paul Lucas run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
99.3%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
99.3%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
99.3%
Brent VanderVeen pass incomplete to Kendall HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.6%
Orlando Bradford run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
99.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
99.6%
Orlando Bradford run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+16
99.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (16 Yards) to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
99.6%
Jared Baker run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.6%
Orlando Bradford run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
Orlando Bradford run for 6 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.7%
Seth Collins run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+7
99.7%
Ryan Nall run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.7%
Seth Collins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
99.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-7 Yards) to the Ariz 7Similar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+4
99.7%
Orlando Bradford run for 4 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+11
99.7%
Orlando Bradford run for 11 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+4
99.7%
Orlando Bradford run for 4 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
99.7%
Orlando Bradford run for 11 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.7%
Orlando Bradford run for 3 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
99.8%
Orlando Bradford run for 4 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+1
99.8%
Orlando Bradford run for 1 yd to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Drew Riggleman punt for 48 yds, downed at the OrgSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
99.9%
Seth Collins pass incomplete, broken up by Will ParksSimilar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+13
99.9%
Storm Woods run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Seth Collins run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Seth Collins pass complete to Storm Woods for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 57 yds, downed at the Ariz 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 70 yds · 3:44100% → 100%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 9 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Orlando Bradford run for 3 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+18
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
50
+8
99.9%
Orlando Bradford run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Orlando Bradford run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+9
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.9%
Jonathan Haden run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+3
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 2
OPP 14
-5
99.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+1
99.9%
Jonathan Haden run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+5
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
99.9%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
99.9%
Jonathan Haden run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Jonathan Haden run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+19
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
99.9%
Jonathan Haden run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 1
OPP 14
-2
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 3
OPP 16
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:17
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q2 9:06
Orlando Bradford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q2 10:59
Seth Collins run for 17 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com