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ORE

Oregon 41 at Colorado 24

COLO
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:00 · Ian Wheeler punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Pregame prior−22.3Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:49: Bralon Addison pass complete to Charles Nelson for 39 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +7.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:03: Royce Freeman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +11.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:12: Taj Griffin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +10.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:29: Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +17.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:43: Taylor Alie pass complete to Jalen Brown for 43 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +11.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:18ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56COLO 4th & 23 at COLO 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:20ORE 4th & 2 at COLO 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00ORE 4th & 25 at ORE 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:21COLO 4th & 4 at ORE 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:26ORE 4th & 13 at ORE 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:22COLO 4th & 9 at ORE 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:57ORE 4th & 8 at COLO 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−5.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:35COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:28COLO 4th & 18 at COLO 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−3.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:02COLO 4th & 1 at ORE 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.7%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:51COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:20ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.2%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:10COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:37ORE 4th & 3 at COLO 16, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:57COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 20, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:11ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:44COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:07COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:49ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:03ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:12ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:29COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:43ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2778% → 77%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
22.4%
Taj Griffin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+11
22.7%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Taj Griffin for 11 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
22.8%
Jeff Lockie sacked by Justin Solis for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+4
23.0%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+6
23.3%
Jeff Lockie run for 6 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+1
23.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 44 yds , Nelson Spruce returns for 1 yd to the Colo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1124% → 24%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
23.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
23.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Donovan LeeSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
23.7%
Sefo Liufau pass intercepted Joe Walker return for no gain to the Colo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:0077% → 76%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
23.5%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Colo 10Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+5
23.6%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Colo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
23.7%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Johnny Mundt for no gain to the Colo 5Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
23.8%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
24.0%
Jeff Lockie pass intercepted, touchback. Ahkello Witherspoon return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3625% → 25%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
24.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
24.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 9 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
25.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 34 Phillip Lindsay fumbled, recovered by Oregn Joe WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:3276% → 77%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
24.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+29
23.1%
Royce Freeman run for 29 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 2:0524% → 24%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
23.7%
Christian Powell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 21Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
23.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Christian Powell for 5 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
23.6%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (Dylan Keeney) to the Colo 21Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-9
23.5%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Christian French for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 12Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
23.6%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds, downed at the Oregn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2877% → 76%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
23.4%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
23.4%
Bralon Addison run for 4 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+3
23.6%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Bralon Addison for 3 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
23.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:2625% → 31%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
24.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
24.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 9 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
25.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 4 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
25.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 5 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+6
25.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 6 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
25.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Sean IrwinSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
25.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+21
25.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 21 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
26.2%
Christian Powell run for 9 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+4
26.2%
Christian Powell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.8%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -15 yds · 1:2872% → 70%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
28.2%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
27.9%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-5
28.4%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Cameron Hunt) to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
29.6%
Taylor Alie pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 10
OWN 36
-15
30.0%
OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dwayne Stanford) to the Oregn 21Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 25
OWN 21
0
30.4%
Ian Wheeler punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:4631% → 39%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
30.5%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
31.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 12 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+42
32.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 42 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
33.0%
Christian Powell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 8Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
38.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 8 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:0563% → 71%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
36.6%
Taylor Alie run for 8 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
35.7%
Griffin, Taj rush for 3 yards to the OREGON33, PENALTY COLORADO offside (Awuzie, Chidobe) 5 yards to the OREGON35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
36.7%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Taj Griffin for 26 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
29.4%
Bralon Addison pass complete to Charles Nelson for 39 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:1432% → 36%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
32.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 11 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
33.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 4 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+14
34.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Sean Irwin for 14 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
35.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to George FrazierSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
35.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 6 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
35.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyreSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+52
35.6%
Diego Gonzalez 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:3466% → 62%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
34.0%
Taj Griffin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+11
35.2%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Royce Freeman for 11 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
34.4%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
34.2%
Taylor Alie pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
34.5%
Taylor Alie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-3
35.6%
Taylor Alie sacked by Leo Jackson III for a loss of 3 yards to the COLORADO 48 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Hunt) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
37.6%
Ian Wheeler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:5537% → 40%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
37.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 14Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
37.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+29
36.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 29 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
39.6%
Christian Powell run for 5 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
40.2%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
40.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 3 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
41.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 7 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
42.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-6
42.0%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Alex Balducci for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
39.5%
Alex Kinney punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15FG
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:1860% → 67%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
40.0%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Taj Griffin for 4 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+62
40.3%
Taj Griffin run for 62 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
36.0%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
36.4%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-1
37.5%
Jeff Lockie sacked by Tyler Henington for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 22 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyrell Crosby) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
33.4%
Aidan Schneider 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:2038% → 38%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
38.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 9 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
39.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 5 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
40.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
39.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+6
37.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 52 yds , Bralon Addison returns for 6 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17END OF HALF
7 plays · 47 yds · 0:2765% → 66%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
35.5%
Taj Griffin run for 13 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.4%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Bralon Addison for 6 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
35.2%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Charles Nelson for 5 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
35.4%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Royce Freeman for 5 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
33.5%
Jeff Lockie run for 2 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+16
34.0%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Royce Freeman for 16 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:2339% → 38%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.4%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
39.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Christian PowellSimilar
Q3 14:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
38.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-6
37.6%
Kinney, Alex punt 55 yards to the OREGON22, Addison, Bralon return 4 yards to the OREGON26, PENALTY COLORADO illegal formation 6 yards to the COLORADO17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
37.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 57 yds, downed at the Oregn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:1764% → 78%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
36.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+7
35.6%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
35.4%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
34.5%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 7 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
34.2%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+10
34.5%
Kani Benoit run for 10 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
33.6%
COLORADO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Colo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
33.4%
Taj Griffin run for 3 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+6
33.6%
Taj Griffin run for 6 yds to the Colo 8Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+1
34.9%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Colo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
33.8%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive Offside (Justin Solis) to the Colo 3Similar
Q3 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.1%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20FUMBLE
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:0926% → 32%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
26.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+12
26.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 12 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
28.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
28.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 4 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+3
28.8%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
28.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
30.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
29.8%
Donovan Lee run for 8 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
30.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Christian Powell for 3 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-11
31.9%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Rodney Hardrick for a loss of 11 yards to the Oregn 46 Sefo Liufau fumbled, forced by Rodney Hardrick, recovered by Oregn Henry Mondeaux , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:1878% → 91%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
22.1%
Taylor Alie run for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+17
21.6%
Taylor Alie run for 17 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
21.0%
Taylor Alie pass incomplete to Taj GriffinSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-2
21.0%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 36Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+13
22.0%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the Colo 23 Royce Freeman fumbled, recovered by OregnSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
20.3%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 2
OPP 15
-2
20.3%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 17Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+14
20.9%
Taj Griffin run for 14 yds to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
20.3%
Taj Griffin run for 1 yd to the Colo 2Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.3%
Taj Griffin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0012% → 12%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
11.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
11.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 4 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
11.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2590% → 91%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
10.4%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
9.8%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
9.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
9.3%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-1
8.9%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24TD
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:3614% → 29%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
13.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+2
13.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
13.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 5 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
13.5%
Sefo Liufau run for 14 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
13.7%
Lindsay, Phillip rush for 2 yards to the OREGON16, PENALTY COLORADO illegal formation 5 yards to the OREGON23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+11
13.3%
Christian Powell run for 11 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 12
-3
13.6%
Christian Powell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+8
12.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 8 yds Devin Ross fumbled, recovered by Colo Alex Kelley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
11.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
29.1%
Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3581% → 95%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.9%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
17.8%
Taj Griffin run for 9 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.1%
Taylor Alie pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
17.3%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+13
16.3%
Bralon Addison run for 13 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
5.3%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Jalen Brown for 43 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:257% → 6%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
6.6%
Sefo Liufau run for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
6.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
6.3%
Sefo Liufau run for 5 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
6.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:2595% → 98%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
5.2%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
4.9%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+10
4.5%
Kani Benoit run for 10 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
4.3%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+9
3.8%
Kani Benoit run for 9 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
3.7%
Jeff Lockie run for 13 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
3.2%
Kani Benoit run for no gain to the Colo 23Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-3
2.6%
Taylor Alie run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+10
2.6%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
2.1%
Aidan Schneider 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:282% → 2%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.1%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Henry Mondeaux for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
2.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
2.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-7
1.8%
Sefo Liufau sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 0 yds · 1:1399% → 99%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
1.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Colo 9Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-2
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 11Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 8
OPP 11
-2
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:29
Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)
+17.4
TD · Q3 10:03
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q4 8:43
Taylor Alie pass complete to Jalen Brown for 43 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com