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ASU

Arizona State 38 at UCLA 23

UCLA
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:24 · Matt Haack punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCLA 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior+8.9Home team on offense−36.9Score differential−20.6Garbage-time factor−8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:05: Mike Bercovici run for 34 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +13.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:56: Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 11 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +18.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:52: Paul Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UCLA win probability +13.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:19: Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 17 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +22.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. SAFETY · Q4 4:16: Team Safety — ASU win probability +12.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ASU made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
  1. Q1 13:19ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:14UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:07ASU 4th & 16 at UCLA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:48UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:00ASU 4th & 16 at UCLA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:32UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:13ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:47UCLA 4th & 24 at ASU 48, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:52ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 10, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:47UCLA 4th & 2 at ASU 42, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−1.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:09ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 25, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:58ASU 4th & 8 at UCLA 13, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−6.4
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:21ASU 4th & 6 at UCLA 7, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−7.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:21UCLA 4th & 5 at ASU 49, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:22UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 27, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:37UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 43, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−1.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:47ASU 4th & 8 at UCLA 49, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:57UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 26, down 19
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%−0.9
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:24ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 26, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:48ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.6%−4.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:06ASU 4th & 10 at UCLA 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:21ASU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:42UCLA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:05ASU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:56ASU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:52UCLA Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:19UCLA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:45ASU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2518% → 19%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.7%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
81.5%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
81.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-3
81.4%
Matt Haack punt for 46 yds , Octavius Spencer returns for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 25 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5681% → 81%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
81.3%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
81.1%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
81.0%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
80.9%
Matt Mengel punt for 43 yds, downed at the ArzSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:5019% → 20%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
80.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+28
80.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 28 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
80.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 9 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+2
80.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
80.0%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
79.9%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-11
79.9%
Mike Bercovici run for a loss of 11 yards to the UCLA 26 Mike Bercovici fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Mike BercoviciSimilar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+44
80.2%
Zane Gonzalez 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0380% → 79%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
80.0%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+5
79.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 5 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 4
OWN 32
-5
79.7%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
79.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
79.3%
Matt Mengel punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:3521% → 21%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
79.3%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
79.2%
Mike Bercovici run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
78.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 16 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
78.5%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-15
78.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 23
OWN 46
+7
78.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 7 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 16
OPP 47
0
78.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Gary ChambersSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
78.8%
Matt Haack punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1179% → 78%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
78.5%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-2
78.3%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 17Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+2
77.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 2 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
77.5%
Matt Mengel punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Gump Hayes at the ArzSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1523% → 22%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
77.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
77.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
77.8%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
78.2%
Matt Haack punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8SF
3 plays · -16 yds · 0:4678% → 77%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
77.9%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-3
77.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
76.5%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:3425% → 29%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
75.0%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
74.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 5 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
71.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 12 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:1972% → 69%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
72.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
72.8%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+14
72.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 14 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
72.7%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
71.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 20
OPP 44
0
71.4%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 20
OPP 44
-4
70.4%
Josh Rosen sacked by DJ Calhoun for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 13:47
4TH & 24
OPP 48
0
69.1%
Adam Searl punt for 43 yds, downed at the ArzSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3329% → 30%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
70.7%
Mike Bercovici run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+1
70.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+5
70.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 5 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
70.0%
Matt Haack punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4369% → 68%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
50
+7
68.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 7 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
68.8%
Nate Starks run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
68.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Cameron JudgeSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
67.6%
Adam Searl punt for 38 yds, downed at the ArzSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2632% → 33%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
68.4%
Demario Richard run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
67.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 3 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+3
66.9%
Jacom Brimhall run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
66.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
67.4%
Matt Haack punt for 63 yds, downed at the UCLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:1164% → 75%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
64.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 4 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+10
64.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 10 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
64.2%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
64.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 4 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
63.5%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
64.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Stephen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+50
63.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Stephen Johnson for 50 yds to the ArzSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
74.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 13 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:1432% → 36%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
68.0%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+8
68.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 8 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+6
67.4%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
66.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 26 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
65.3%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
65.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kody KohlSimilar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
66.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
63.8%
Zane Gonzalez 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:3664% → 65%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
64.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
50
-3
66.7%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 47Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
64.7%
Josh Rosen pass intercepted Viliami Moeakiola return for no gain to the ArzSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:4138% → 48%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
61.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 9 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
60.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
60.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 3 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
60.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
59.5%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+23
59.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 23 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
58.1%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
57.5%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the UCLA 7Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
56.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
52.3%
Zane Gonzalez 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18END OF HALF
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:1454% → 65%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
53.9%
Paul Perkins run for 11 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
54.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 22 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
57.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 7 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+53
64.9%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:1461% → 61%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
61.3%
Nate Starks run for 8 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
63.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 8 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
62.9%
Nate Starks run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
63.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
62.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Nate IeseSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
60.7%
Matt Mengel punt for 13 yds, downed at the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:1243% → 60%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
57.5%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-4
55.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
55.6%
Mike Bercovici run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
54.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 7
50
+16
53.6%
Demario Richard run for 16 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
40.4%
Mike Bercovici run for 34 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2144% → 42%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.8%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
43.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Paul PerkinsSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
42.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
42.1%
Adam Searl punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Gump Hayes at the ArzSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1960% → 84%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
40.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
50
+2
38.2%
Mike Bercovici run for 2 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
37.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+32
36.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 32 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
35.0%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
16.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 11 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1626% → 23%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
24.5%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 23Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+17
24.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 17 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
25.3%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 41Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
25.1%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+2
23.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
23.2%
Adam Searl punt for 33 yds, downed at the ArzSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:3686% → 91%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
13.9%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
13.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+22
13.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 22 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
10.6%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-6
10.0%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Eli Ankou for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+4
9.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 4 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
9.4%
Matt Haack punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4316% → 15%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
16.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
15.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 8 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
15.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Mossi JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
14.9%
Adam Searl punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Gump Hayes at the ArzSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0592% → 92%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
8.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-2
7.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kalen Ballage for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
7.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
7.8%
Matt Haack punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 27TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:2413% → 29%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
12.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 18 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
13.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 19 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
14.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+29
14.2%
Paul Perkins run for 29 yds to the ArzSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
15.5%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.2%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 28INT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:4881% → 87%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
15.8%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
15.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 9 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
13.1%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
12.8%
Mike Bercovici run for no gain to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
13.1%
Mike Bercovici pass intercepted Isaako Savaiinaea return for no gain to the ArzSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 29TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:1722% → 44%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
21.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 16 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
22.8%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 20
OPP 32
0
21.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+15
20.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 15 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+17
43.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 17 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 30PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 3:5470% → 78%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
30.1%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
30.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
31.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 12 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
26.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 7 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
21.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
21.8%
Mike Bercovici run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+8
23.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 8 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
19.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 4 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-4
18.6%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
18.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
22.0%
Matt Haack punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 31SF
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4428% → 13%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
28.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
27.5%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
25.0%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
12.5%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 32TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:1290% → 99%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
10.3%
Tim White run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
9.2%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
7.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 9 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
6.4%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
5.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+10
5.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 10 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
3.2%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
3.0%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
1.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 23 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 33END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:341% → 1%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
0.9%
Nate Starks run for 7 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
0.9%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
0.9%
Nate Starks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:19
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 17 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
+22.8
TD · Q3 7:56
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 11 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
-18.7
TD · Q4 13:52
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com