Try the model
ARIZ

Arizona 17 at Stanford 55

STAN
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Stanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:47 · Drew Riggleman punt for 42 yds , Barry Sanders returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 13 ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense+35.3Pregame prior+6.6Score differential+30.6Garbage-time factor+9.9Blowout margin+15.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:48: Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +4.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:45: Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +6.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:19: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Remound Wright for 16 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +4.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:17: Jerrard Randall pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 15 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +6.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:56: Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +2.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:50STAN 4th & 4 at ARIZ 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:13ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:31STAN 4th & 15 at ARIZ 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:19ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:23ARIZ 4th & 1 at STAN 13, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−0.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:44ARIZ 4th & 7 at STAN 8, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:28ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:07ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 25, down 24
    Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:20ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:44STAN 4th & 15 at STAN 36, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:47ARIZ 4th & 16 at ARIZ 14, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:16STAN 4th & 4 at ARIZ 31, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:15ARIZ 4th & 5 at STAN 43, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:48STAN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:45STAN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:19STAN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:17ARIZ Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:56STAN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:39STAN Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:43ARIZ Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:25STAN Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:03STAN Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:0583% → 82%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
82.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 12 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
82.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 8 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+6
82.8%
Kevin Hogan run for 6 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
82.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+9
82.5%
Bryce Love run for 9 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
82.5%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
82.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+6
82.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 6 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
82.2%
Conrad Ukropina 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:2618% → 18%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.0%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
81.9%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to David Richards for 6 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
81.8%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Nate Phillips for 8 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
81.5%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-2
81.5%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-2
81.8%
Drew Riggleman punt for 45 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FG
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:3582% → 82%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
81.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+49
81.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 49 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
81.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 19 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
81.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Ariz 19Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
81.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for no gain to the Ariz 19Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-5
81.4%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Reggie Gilbert for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+41
81.7%
Conrad Ukropina 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5718% → 18%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
81.7%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
81.5%
Jerrard Randall run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 4
OWN 25
-5
81.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 20Similar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+3
82.0%
Drew Riggleman punt for 46 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 3 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:2082% → 86%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
82.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 35Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+7
81.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 7 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
82.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 5 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
82.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 12 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+32
82.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 32 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
82.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (5 Yards) to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6FG
23 plays · 73 yds · 6:4915% → 16%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
84.6%
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+1
84.5%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+8
84.5%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to David Richards for 8 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.4%
Jerrard Randall run for no gain to the Ariz 35Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
84.8%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to David Richards for 9 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
84.3%
Jerrard Randall run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
50
0
84.3%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
50
0
84.6%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Nick WilsonSimilar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 10
50
+12
85.7%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 12 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
85.2%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+2
84.7%
Jerrard Randall run for 2 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+8
85.2%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the Stanf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.8%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
85.0%
Jerrard Randall run for 2 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+7
85.6%
Jerrard Randall run for 7 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
85.6%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
85.1%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 13Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+5
85.4%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
85.8%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
83.8%
Casey Skowron 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:3684% → 92%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
83.5%
Barry Sanders run for 6 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
84.5%
Barry Sanders run for 3 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
84.3%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.7%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
84.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+15
84.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 15 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
85.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 4 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+30
85.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 25 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.9%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0510% → 10%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.8%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Aziz Shittu for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
90.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 1 yd to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+2
90.3%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
90.3%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-3
90.3%
Drew Riggleman punt for 42 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:5692% → 96%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
92.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 9 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+6
92.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 6 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+42
92.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 42 yds to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
96.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Remound Wright for 16 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:005% → 5%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
94.7%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+4
95.0%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:315% → 11%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.7%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-12
94.7%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 3 yds to the Ariz 30 ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-5
94.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 10Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+21
94.7%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 21 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+28
95.3%
Jerrard Randall run for 28 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
95.2%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 44Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
95.3%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+29
95.6%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 29 yds to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
89.3%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 15 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12TD
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:5392% → 97%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
92.1%
Barry Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
93.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for 5 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+6
93.2%
Bryce Love run for 6 yds to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
93.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
93.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
94.1%
STANFORD Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 8Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
94.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 7 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.0%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:393% → 3%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
96.8%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Johnny JacksonSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
96.8%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 7 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 3
OWN 25
-3
96.9%
Drew Riggleman punt for 49 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 2:1797% → 100%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
97.0%
Keller Chryst run for 9 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+18
97.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
50
+17
97.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 17 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
97.9%
Bryce Love run for 15 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 18 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 2:391% → 2%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
99.5%
Jerrard Randall run for 17 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
99.5%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Samajie Grant for 16 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.5%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.5%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Josh KernSimilar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+10
99.7%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Samajie Grant for 10 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
99.7%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Samajie Grant for 9 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
99.6%
Orlando Bradford run for no gain to the Stanf 21Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+5
99.6%
Jerrard Randall run for 5 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.7%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+15
99.7%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 15 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.7%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
99.8%
Barry Sanders run for 65 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+10
99.8%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 10 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Drew Riggleman punt for 65 yds, downed at the Stanf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:16100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
99.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 13 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
99.8%
Remound Wright run for 9 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+9
99.8%
Remound Wright run for 9 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.8%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
99.8%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-9
99.9%
Keller Chryst sacked by Jake Matthews and Tellas Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 36Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Alex Robinson punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.9%
Orlando Bradford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 19Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-5
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Peter Kalambayi and Mike Tyler for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 14Similar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+32
99.9%
Drew Riggleman punt for 42 yds , Barry Sanders returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 13 ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20TD
13 plays · 47 yds · 6:22100% → 100%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.9%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Francis Owusu for 8 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+2
99.9%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Keller Chryst run for 2 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Ryan Burns run for 2 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-10
99.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+12
99.9%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 12 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q4 7:16
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+13
99.9%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Greg Taboada for 13 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
99.9%
Bryce Love run for 9 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+1
99.9%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
99.9%
Remound Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 9Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.9%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Rollins Stallworth for 6 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Jonathan Haden for 5 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+13
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 13 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for 10 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for 5 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for no gain to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
100.0%
Pat McFadden run for 1 yd to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
100.0%
Pat McFadden run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 3
50
+3
100.0%
Pat McFadden run for 3 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:45
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q3 12:17
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 15 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
-6.3
TD · Q2 1:19
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Remound Wright for 16 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com