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USC

USC 42 at Arizona State 14

ASU
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:12 · Matt Haack punt for 54 yds for a 1ST down , Adoree' Jackson returns for 45 yds to the ARIZONAST 45 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense−37.9Score differential−24.7Pregame prior−9.8Garbage-time factor−11.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:22: Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 27 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +6.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:37: Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +8.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q2 0:25: Mike Bercovici run for a loss of 3 yards Mike Bercovici fumbled, forced by Delvon Simmons, recovered by USC Chris Hawkins , return for 94 yds, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +6.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:03: Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 10 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:55: Demario Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +1.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:26ASU 4th & 5 at USC 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:26USC 4th & 8 at USC 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:35ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:20USC 4th & 22 at USC 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:11ASU 4th & 8 at USC 34, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:12ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 10, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:20ASU 4th & 19 at ASU 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:55USC 4th & 15 at USC 32, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:00USC 4th & 12 at USC 48, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:25ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:24USC 4th & 5 at USC 30, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:24ASU 4th & 18 at USC 20, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:31USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:22USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:37USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:03USC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:55ASU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:41USC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:45ASU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1INT
5 plays · 64 yds · 0:5870% → 69%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
30.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 52 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
30.4%
Tre Madden run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+10
30.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 10 yds to the ArzSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
30.6%
Cody Kessler pass intercepted Kareem Orr return for no gain to the ArzSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3731% → 32%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+61
31.0%
Demario Richard run for 61 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
31.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Ellis JeffersonSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
31.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+11
31.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 11 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
32.2%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the USC 23 Demario Richard fumbled, forced by Su'a Cravens, recovered by USC Cyrus HobbiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 1:0968% → 69%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-9
31.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 14 TEAM fumbled, recovered by USC Cody KesslerSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 19
OWN 14
+6
31.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 6 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+80
30.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 80 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:4331% → 31%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
30.8%
D.J. Foster run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
31.1%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
31.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 15 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
31.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the USC 33Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
32.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
31.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
31.3%
Zane Gonzalez 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:5469% → 69%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
30.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
30.8%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 29Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 11
OWN 29
-5
31.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chuma Edoga) to the USC 24Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+21
31.2%
Cody Kessler run for 21 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
30.3%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 5
50
0
30.2%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 5
50
-3
30.3%
Tre Madden run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 47Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+19
30.9%
Kris Albarado punt for 49 yds , Tim White returns for 19 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3631% → 31%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
31.2%
Gump Hayes run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
31.4%
Mike Bercovici run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+5
31.2%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
31.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kody KohlSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
31.5%
Gump Hayes run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+4
31.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 4 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
31.4%
Matt Haack punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 2:5069% → 68%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
31.1%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 20Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
31.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (Zach Banner) to the USC 15Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
31.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+15
31.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tre Madden for 15 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
30.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
30.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Isaac Whitney for no gain to the USC 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
30.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tyler Petite for 3 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-15
30.2%
USC Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Tyler Petite) to the USC 29Similar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 22
OWN 29
0
31.6%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 22
OWN 29
0
32.0%
Kris Albarado punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4132% → 32%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
31.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
32.4%
Mike Bercovici pass intercepted John Plattenburg return for no gain to the USC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:0169% → 77%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
30.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
31.2%
Tre Madden run for 1 yd to the USC 27Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+28
31.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 13 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
29.7%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
29.7%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+12
30.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 12 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
29.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 6 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
29.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Isaac WhitneySimilar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+27
23.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 27 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:4625% → 24%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.8%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
24.8%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
25.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 9 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
25.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kalen Ballage for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+14
24.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 14 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
25.4%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+3
24.7%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
24.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
24.9%
Gump Hayes run for no gain to the USC 34Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
24.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kody KohlSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+52
23.7%
Zane Gonzalez 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:1678% → 88%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
22.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tyler Petite for 12 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
21.2%
Tre Madden run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-3
20.9%
Tre Madden run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 6
50
+45
21.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 45 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
20.6%
Tre Madden run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
12.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12FUMBLE TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 2:5915% → 9%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
14.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 5 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+8
14.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 8 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
14.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+22
14.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 22 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
15.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
15.1%
Mike Bercovici run for 5 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
15.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Gump HayesSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+15
14.8%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jonathan Lockett) to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
15.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gump Hayes for 4 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+16
15.4%
Gump Hayes run for 16 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 0
OPP 1
+94
8.7%
Mike Bercovici run for a loss of 3 yards Mike Bercovici fumbled, forced by Delvon Simmons, recovered by USC Chris Hawkins , return for 94 yds, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:1092% → 97%
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
7.8%
Cody Kessler sacked by Salamo Fiso for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
5.5%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
3.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 10 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:123% → 3%
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
3.3%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
3.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-4
3.1%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Scott Felix for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 16
OWN 10
+45
2.9%
Matt Haack punt for 54 yds for a 1ST down , Adoree' Jackson returns for 45 yds to the ARIZONAST 45 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:4997% → 98%
Q3 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
3.0%
Tre Madden run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
2.9%
Tre Madden run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-9
2.5%
Cody Kessler sacked by JoJo Wicker for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 14 Cody Kessler fumbled, forced by JoJo Wicker, recovered by ArzSt Antonio Longino , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:403% → 2%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
2.7%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+9
2.6%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
2.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gump Hayes for 5 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
2.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 5 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
2.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
2.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Gary ChambersSimilar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-9
2.1%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Cameron Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 19
OWN 32
+8
2.0%
Matt Haack punt for 54 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 8 yds to the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:0598% → 98%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
2.0%
USC Penalty, Illegal Block (-11 Yards) to the USC 11Similar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 21
OWN 11
+3
2.0%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+23
1.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 23 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
1.7%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-10
1.6%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chad Wheeler) to the USC 36Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-5
1.6%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 31Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+1
1.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 32Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
1.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Tre MaddenSimilar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 15
OWN 32
+2
1.9%
Kris Albarado punt for 52 yds , Gump Hayes returns for 2 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:381% → 2%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
1.4%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+10
1.4%
Demario Richard run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
1.3%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
1.2%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+13
1.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 13 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
1.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-1
1.2%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 45Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+33
0.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 33 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
0.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
0.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 11 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.8%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:4898% → 99%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.2%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+23
2.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
50
-2
1.0%
Tre Madden run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
1.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Christian ToberSimilar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
1.0%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
1.0%
Kris Albarado punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:292% → 1%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
1.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
1.3%
Mike Bercovici run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+4
0.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 4 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
0.9%
Matt Haack punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1499% → 100%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
0.7%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 34Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+24
0.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 24 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
0.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
0.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 22 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
0.5%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Isaac Whitney for 10 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
0.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 3 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
0.2%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+6
0.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
0.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 10 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
0.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 19 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
0.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 26 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Raymond EppsSimilar
Q4 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.3%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chris Brown) to the USC 20Similar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
0.3%
Justin Davis run for 8 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
0.3%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 26Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
0.2%
Max Browne pass complete to Tyler Petite for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Gump Hayes at the ArzSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 58 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
0.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Gary ChambersSimilar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+14
0.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 14 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+40
0.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 40 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
0.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+12
0.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 12 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
0.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Gary ChambersSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-8
0.2%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Kenny Bigelow Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 20Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 18
OPP 20
0
0.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 18
OPP 20
0
0.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
0.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
0.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 29Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
0.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
0.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 26Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 15
OWN 26
-1
0.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:37
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
-8.6
FUMBLE · Q2 0:25
Mike Bercovici run for a loss of 3 yards Mike Bercovici fumbled, forced by Delvon Simmons, recovered by USC Chris Hawkins , return for 94 yds, (Alex Wood KICK)
-6.7
TD · Q2 11:22
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 27 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com