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UCLA

UCLA 56 at Arizona 30

ARIZ
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Casey Skowron 29 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense−32.1Score differential−20.4Garbage-time factor−9.0Pregame prior−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:20: Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 5 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +8.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:34: Jerrard Randall run for 39 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +7.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:41: Nate Starks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +9.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:05: Jerrard Randall pass complete to David Richards for 16 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron PAT MISSED) — ARIZ win probability +6.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:54: Casey Skowron 44 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +7.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:21ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:39UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:03ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:00ARIZ 4th & 7 at UCLA 12, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:14UCLA 4th & 19 at UCLA 7, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:05ARIZ 4th & 3 at UCLA 16, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:45UCLA 4th & 16 at UCLA 15, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:00ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 32, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:00UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 21, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:32ARIZ 4th & 11 at UCLA 12, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:20ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:59UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:31UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:36UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:20UCLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:34ARIZ Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:41UCLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 3:08UCLA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:05ARIZ Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:39UCLA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:37UCLA Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:12ARIZ Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4037% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.3%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
37.5%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
37.5%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
37.7%
Anu Solomon run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
50
+1
38.0%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
38.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+12
38.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 12 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
38.4%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
38.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+34
39.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 34 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:2161% → 62%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
38.9%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Alex Redmond) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 15
50
+5
39.3%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
39.3%
Mossi Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+10
39.8%
Josh Rosen run for 10 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
39.7%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-5
39.8%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Kenny Lacy) to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+35
38.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 35 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2139% → 40%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.2%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
39.5%
Anu Solomon sacked by Kenny Clark for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
39.2%
Anu Solomon run for 9 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-20
39.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the Ariz 16 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCLA Deon HollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
36.5%
Paul Perkins run for 16 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:1037% → 38%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.3%
Nick Wilson run for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
37.7%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
37.5%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
37.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 9 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
37.8%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+6
37.5%
Drew Riggleman punt for 45 yds , Devin Fuller returns for 6 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:4263% → 64%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
37.1%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
37.0%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+9
37.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 9 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
36.8%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+11
36.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 11 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
36.2%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
36.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Starks for 5 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
36.1%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
36.5%
Matt Mengel punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3637% → 36%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
37.0%
Nick Wilson run for 14 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.1%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
37.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
37.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for no gain to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+29
36.3%
Drew Riggleman punt for 48 yds , Devin Fuller returns for 29 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:2765% → 70%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
50
+3
35.5%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
35.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 3 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+17
35.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 17 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
34.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 13 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
34.8%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
34.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Scooby Wright III) to the Ariz 7Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+6
34.8%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.6%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4432% → 31%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
31.6%
Anu Solomon run for 8 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
32.0%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
31.3%
Anu Solomon run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 30 Anu Solomon fumbled, recovered by UCLA Deon HollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:3271% → 80%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
29.1%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+18
29.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 18 yds to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
28.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 9 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 1
OPP 3
-2
28.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 5Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
20.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 5 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4622% → 30%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.3%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
22.0%
Anu Solomon run for 12 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
22.5%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
21.9%
Solomon, Anu pass pass intercepted by Wadood, Jaleel at the UCLA40, Wadood, Jaleel return 10 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY UCLA holding 10 yards to the ARIZONA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
22.6%
Anu Solomon run for 12 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
30.4%
Jerrard Randall run for 39 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5372% → 84%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
28.0%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds to the UCLA 32 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kenny Lacy) to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 13
OWN 22
0
27.4%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
27.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+22
27.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 22 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
26.0%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+21
25.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 21 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
26.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Tyler Scott for 7 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+19
25.5%
Nate Starks run for 19 yds to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
25.3%
Nate Starks run for 1 yd to the Ariz 3Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.2%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13INT
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:0819% → 20%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.9%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
18.7%
Nick Wilson run for 13 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
19.5%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 17 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
20.1%
Nick Wilson run for 14 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
20.3%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
20.1%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Josh KernSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+13
19.6%
Jerrard Randall pass intercepted Ishmael Adams return for 13 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:2584% → 87%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
16.2%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+5
16.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 5 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+59
15.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 59 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
14.3%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
14.1%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.4%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:0814% → 6%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.2%
Jerrard Randall run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
13.1%
Jerrard Randall run for 17 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
14.7%
Nick Wilson run for 27 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
17.6%
Jared Baker run for 7 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+3
15.5%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
10.2%
Jerrard Randall run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 17Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+2
9.6%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+3
8.8%
Jerrard Randall run for 3 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
5.5%
Casey Skowron 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:4691% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-6
9.1%
Josh Rosen sacked by Luca Bruno for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 10Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 16
OWN 10
-4
8.9%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 6Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 20
OWN 6
+1
7.6%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 7Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 19
OWN 7
0
7.8%
Matt Mengel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the UCLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:099% → 13%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
8.7%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 9 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+1
8.4%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
8.6%
Jerrard Randall run for 9 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
7.7%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
7.7%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the UCLA 23Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
7.3%
Jerrard Randall run for 7 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
6.8%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+16
13.4%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to David Richards for 16 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2091% → 91%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
9.0%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
8.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-5
8.7%
Josh Rosen sacked by Tellas Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 15 Josh Rosen fumbled, forced by Tellas Jones, recovered by UCLA Jake Brendel , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 16
OWN 15
0
8.6%
Matt Mengel punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19FG
13 plays · 24 yds · 3:5110% → 14%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
10.3%
Jerrard Randall run for 8 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
10.6%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
10.5%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
10.3%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
10.0%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jaleel Wadood) to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
10.7%
Jerrard Randall run for 11 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
8.5%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+16
8.3%
Jerrard Randall run for 16 yds to the UCLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-17
8.4%
Jerrard Randall run for a loss of 17 yards to the UCLA 20 Jerrard Randall fumbled, recovered by Ariz Jerrard RandallSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
-10
7.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Freddie Tagaloa) to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 30
+3
7.1%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 27
0
6.6%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 0
OPP 27
+44
14.4%
Casey Skowron 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1592% → 99%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+39
7.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 39 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
6.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
6.9%
Paul Perkins run for 8 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+9
5.7%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
5.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+11
5.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 11 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
1.5%
Josh Rosen run for 8 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:392% → 2%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.2%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
1.9%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
1.8%
Jerrard Randall run for 3 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
1.8%
Drew Riggleman punt for 54 yds , Devin Fuller returns for 1 yd to the UCLA 15 UCLA Penalty, Illegal Block (Thomas Duarte) to the UCLA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:0098% → 99%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
1.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 4 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+5
1.5%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
1.4%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
1.4%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 9Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 9
+3
1.4%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 12
0
1.4%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+9
1.4%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
1.5%
Matt Mengel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 43 yds · 4:282% → 1%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
1.7%
Jerrard Randall run for 7 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+8
1.7%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
1.5%
Jerrard Randall run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
0.9%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+15
0.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 15 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
0.9%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Nate Phillips for 3 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
0.8%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+6
0.7%
Jared Baker run for 6 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
0.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Lene Maiava) to the UCLA 16Similar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 15
OPP 16
-3
0.6%
Jared Baker run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 18
OPP 19
0
0.6%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 18
OPP 19
+7
0.5%
Jerrard Randall run for 7 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 11
OPP 12
0
0.5%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Johnny JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 5:55100% → 100%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
0.4%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+4
0.4%
Soso Jamabo run for 4 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+5
0.3%
Soso Jamabo run for 5 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
0.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 11 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
0.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+27
0.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 27 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
0.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 7 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+17
0.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 17 yds to the Ariz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
0.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
0.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
0.1%
Jared Baker run for 29 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
0.1%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
0.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+6
0.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 6 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
0.1%
Dawkins, Brandon pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UCLA36 (Wallace, Aaron), PENALTY UCLA face mask 15 yards to the UCLA16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
0.1%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-5
0.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Zach Hemmila) to the UCLA 16Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+22
0.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Jamardre Cobb for 1 yd Jamardre Cobb fumbled, recovered by Ariz Brandon Dawkins for a 1ST down , return for 18 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the UCLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.1%
Jared Baker run for 1 yd to the UCLA 2Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:41
Nate Starks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q2 12:20
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 5 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q2 10:34
Jerrard Randall run for 39 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com