Try the model
STAN

Stanford 42 at Oregon State 24

ORST
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2015 · Reser Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:31 · Alex Robinson punt for 49 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 10 yds to the OrgSt 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Pregame prior−1.3Home team on offense−46.7Score differential−26.2Garbage-time factor−11.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−9.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:03: Remound Wright run for 2 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +6.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:42: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 49 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +11.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:49: Barry Sanders run for 11 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +8.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:21: Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 40 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +10.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:00: Barry Sanders run for 65 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +9.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:18ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:05STAN 4th & 8 at ORST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:43ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:22ORST 4th & 6 at STAN 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−5.8
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:52STAN 4th & 11 at ORST 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−7.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:20ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 47, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:11ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:50ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:52ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:48STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:27ORST 4th & 16 at ORST 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:31STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 45, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:46STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:34ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:20STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:59ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:03STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:42STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:49STAN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:21ORST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:00STAN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:5489% → 88%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
11.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 12 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
11.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+10
11.2%
Hogan, Kevin pass incomplete to Rector, Michael, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference (Decoud, Treston) 10 yards to the OREGONST36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
11.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
11.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
11.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+12
12.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 12 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
12.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
12.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.0%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2712% → 13%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
12.3%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
12.4%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+5
12.4%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+25
12.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 40 yds, downed at the OREGONST 30 OREGON ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Stanf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5788% → 87%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
12.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 40Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+6
12.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 6 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+2
12.8%
Kevin Hogan pass intercepted Cyril Noland-Lewis return for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:0613% → 18%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
13.4%
Victor Bolden run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
13.5%
Seth Collins run for 6 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+9
13.8%
Storm Woods run for 9 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
14.0%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 12 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
14.4%
Victor Bolden run for 9 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
14.6%
Storm Woods run for 5 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
14.8%
Storm Woods run for 1 yd to the Stanf 13Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+5
15.0%
Seth Collins run for 5 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+7
15.0%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 7 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.0%
Seth Collins 1 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 0:4083% → 87%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
16.7%
Bryce Love run for 8 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+22
16.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 22 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
13.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 42 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:0114% → 20%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
14.3%
Victor Bolden run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+5
14.5%
Seth Collins run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+36
14.8%
Seth Collins pass complete to Storm Woods for 36 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
15.9%
Victor Bolden run for 8 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 2
OPP 23
0
16.1%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+9
15.7%
Ryan Nall run for 9 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
16.2%
Ryan Nall run for 9 yds to the Stanf 5Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
20.4%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:4082% → 80%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
18.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
18.2%
Remound Wright run for 4 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
18.2%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
18.5%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
18.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
50
0
18.7%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
50
+2
18.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
19.4%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
20.5%
Jake Bailey punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1722% → 21%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
21.6%
Seth Collins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
22.1%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
22.1%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+3
21.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 37 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 3 yds to the Stanf 29 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Stanf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:3779% → 85%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
20.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
20.0%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+10
20.6%
Hogan, Kevin pass complete to Jordan, Dontonio for 7 yards to the STANFORD44, PENALTY OREGONST holding 10 yards to the STANFORD47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
20.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
19.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+1
20.4%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+38
20.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 38 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
20.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
20.3%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
14.8%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 2:3817% → 22%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.4%
Seth Collins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+29
17.7%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 29 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
19.6%
Storm Woods run for 6 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+4
19.7%
Seth Collins run for 4 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
20.8%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+23
19.0%
Seth Collins pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 23 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
21.2%
Victor Bolden run for 8 yds to the Stanf 6Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+2
21.2%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the Stanf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
21.3%
Seth Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 6Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
21.3%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
20.3%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
22.0%
Garrett Owens 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
20.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:2623% → 23%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
23.3%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-9
23.3%
Seth Collins run for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 9 Seth Collins fumbled, recovered by StanfSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13MISSED FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0880% → 77%
Q3 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
20.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
20.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
21.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q3 12:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
23.3%
Conrad Ukropina 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:1524% → 27%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
24.2%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
24.3%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+16
23.5%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 16 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
25.7%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
27.3%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 5 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
27.5%
Seth Collins run for no gain to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
26.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 34 yds, downed at the Stanf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 3:1875% → 87%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
24.8%
Barry Sanders run for 7 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
24.3%
Kevin Hogan run for 2 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+4
25.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 4 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
24.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+9
24.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 9 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
24.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+49
13.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 49 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1915% → 14%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
14.9%
Seth Collins run for no gain to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
14.7%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
14.2%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+27
13.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 42 yds, downed at the OREGONST 30 OREGON ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Ryan Navarro) to the Stanf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:0287% → 96%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
13.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Noke Tago) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 5
50
+11
12.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
12.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
12.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+7
12.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
3.9%
Barry Sanders run for 11 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:407% → 6%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
6.7%
Victor Bolden run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
6.5%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
6.4%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
6.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:4696% → 96%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
4.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
3.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 33 yds to the OrgSt 21 Christian McCaffrey fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Manase HungaluSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:246% → 16%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
6.2%
Storm Woods run for no gain to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
5.8%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 11 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
6.0%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 8 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+4
6.3%
Storm Woods run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
6.1%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
6.1%
Seth Collins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+13
5.1%
Seth Collins pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 13 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
15.8%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 40 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
3.6%
Barry Sanders run for 65 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:015% → 4%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.6%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
4.4%
Storm Woods run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
4.0%
Storm Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
3.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4797% → 97%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
3.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-5
3.0%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+4
3.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
2.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
3.0%
Alex Robinson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:134% → 4%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
3.6%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 22 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
3.9%
Seth Collins pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 12 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
4.0%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
3.9%
Seth Collins pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 4 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-10
4.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Mitchell) to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 16
OWN 47
0
3.5%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Ronnie HarrisSimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
3.5%
Nick Porebski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 5:4497% → 99%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
2.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+12
2.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 12 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
2.1%
Barry Sanders run for 8 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
2.1%
Barry Sanders run for 1 yd to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
1.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
1.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+5
1.5%
Barry Sanders run for 5 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
1.4%
Barry Sanders run for no gain to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+10
1.2%
Alex Robinson punt for 49 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 10 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:262% → 2%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
1.7%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
1.6%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 4 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+11
1.5%
Seth Collins pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 11 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
1.6%
Seth Collins pass complete to Storm Woods for 23 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
1.8%
Seth Collins sacked by Mike Tyler for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 18
OWN 46
0
1.7%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 18
OWN 46
0
1.6%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:42
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 49 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q4 13:21
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 40 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q4 13:00
Barry Sanders run for 65 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com