Try the model
CAL

California 45 at Texas 44

TEX
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-7.8TEX 40.4%Jared Goff pass complete to KennyLawler for 17 yds for a TD, (MattAnderson KICK)AWAY 14 - HOME 10 · Q2 10:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:00 · Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 17 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Home team on offense−3.1Pregame prior−8.3Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:32: Johnathan Gray run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK) — TEX win probability +13.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:08: Vic Enwere run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +11.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:28: Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +14.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:00: D'Onta Foreman run for 27 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK) — TEX win probability +25.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:11: Jerrod Heard run for 45 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose PAT MISSED) — TEX win probability +24.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Inside the two-minute warning).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:37CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:28TEX 4th & 1 at CAL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:52TEX 4th & 9 at CAL 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:00CAL 4th & 3 at TEX 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:52CAL 4th & 6 at TEX 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:24TEX 4th & 14 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:08CAL 4th & 1 at TEX 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    47.8%−3.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−13.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:08TEX 4th & 24 at TEX 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−5.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:27TEX 4th & 7 at CAL 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:24CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 46, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:25TEX 4th & 17 at CAL 38, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%
    38% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:07CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:13TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:08CAL 4th & 7 at TEX 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    86.8%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:49CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:16TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:00CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:53TEX Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:32TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:52CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:08CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:28CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:16CAL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:24TEX Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:00TEX Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%−1.0
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:11TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−4.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2362% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
37.8%
Jeffrey Coprich run for 3 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
37.8%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
38.3%
Jared Goff punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
38.4%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Johnathan Gray for 22 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
38.6%
Johnathan Gray run for 5 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
38.6%
Jerrod Heard run for 4 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
38.6%
Johnathan Gray run for no gain to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
38.5%
Johnathan Gray run for no gain to the Cal 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:2561% → 63%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
38.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for no gain to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
38.8%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+12
38.9%
Jared Goff run for 12 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
38.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Vic Enwere for 9 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+6
38.5%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
38.5%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
38.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+28
39.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 22 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, personal fould targeting (Dylan Haines) to the Texas 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
39.0%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Texas 6Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
39.0%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
36.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:2838% → 43%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
37.8%
Jerrod Heard run for 5 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+6
37.9%
Johnathan Gray run for 6 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
37.9%
Jerrod Heard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
37.9%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 15
OWN 30
-5
37.5%
TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 25Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+45
37.5%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for 45 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
38.8%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+26
38.8%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Johnathan Gray for 26 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.0%
Jerrod Heard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FUMBLE
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Vic EnwereSimilar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+31
41.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 16 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
40.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 10 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
39.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 7 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+5
39.9%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
39.9%
Vic Enwere run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 23Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+6
39.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 6 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+7
40.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 7 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
39.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds Khalfani Muhammad fumbled, forced by Kevin Vaccaro, recovered by Texas Antwuan DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:2343% → 47%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
43.0%
Daje Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
42.8%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 4 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+54
42.4%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for 54 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
44.8%
Armanti Foreman run for no gain to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
46.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+13
45.5%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Alex De La Torre for 13 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
46.1%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
46.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
45.5%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
46.7%
Nick Rose 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5254% → 60%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
46.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 9 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
45.2%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
45.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 24 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
44.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 14 yds to the Texas 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
43.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 5 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
43.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+2
44.3%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+17
40.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 17 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 2:0142% → 53%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-3
41.5%
Jerrod Heard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 4 TEXAS Penalty, illegal forward pass (Jerrod Heard) to the Texas 2Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 13
OWN 2
+34
41.4%
Jerrod Heard run for 34 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
42.4%
Johnathan Gray run for 15 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+43
44.0%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to John Burt for 43 yds to the Cal 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
45.2%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Cal 4Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
53.1%
Johnathan Gray run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:0150% → 49%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 8 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+37
49.1%
Vic Enwere run for 37 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
47.0%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+2
46.9%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
48.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 1 yd to the Texas 21Similar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 1
OPP 21
-5
49.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, IS (-5 Yards) to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+44
51.2%
Matt Anderson 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 2:2852% → 52%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
51.8%
Heard, Jerrod deep pass incomplete to Foreman, Armanti, PENALTY CAL defensive pass interference (Allensworth, Darius) 15 yards to the UT42, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
53.1%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
53.3%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 5 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
53.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
54.1%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-1
55.0%
Chris Warren III run for 9 yds to the Cal 35 TEXAS Penalty, offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+6
55.0%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to John Burt for 6 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-11
55.0%
Jerrod Heard run for a loss of 11 yards to the 50 yard line Jerrod Heard fumbled, recovered by Texas , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 14
50
0
51.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
55.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
56.0%
Vic Enwere run for 7 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+7
54.7%
Jared Goff sacked by Shiro Davis for a loss of 14 yards to the Cal 6 Jared Goff fumbled, recovered by Texas Desmond Jackson , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds to the Cal 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
67.8%
Johnathan Gray run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:4034% → 49%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
66.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 49 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
60.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 22 yds to the Texas 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
60.5%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.7%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0754% → 56%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
53.9%
Jerrod Heard run for 9 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
55.6%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for 9 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
56.3%
Jerrod Heard pass intercepted Jalen Jefferson return for 22 yds to the Texas 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15FG
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:2049% → 61%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
50.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 8 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+5
50.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 5 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
50.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+34
39.4%
Matt Anderson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0049% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
48.8%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to John Burt for 7 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
51.1%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Mustafa Jalil for 0 yards to the Texas 42 Jerrod Heard fumbled, recovered by Cal Jonathan Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:0858% → 70%
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
41.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 9 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
40.5%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
40.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+22
40.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 22 yds to the Texas 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
40.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 5Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
40.5%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Texas 3Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
41.7%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.0%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 8 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.6%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.5%
Johnathan Gray run for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
31.3%
Jerrod Heard run for 11 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
33.4%
Jerrod Heard run for 5 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
35.4%
Jerrod Heard run for 6 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
35.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
35.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for no gain to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-15
33.4%
TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Sedrick Flowers) to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 24
OWN 33
0
31.3%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to D'Onta ForemanSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 24
OWN 33
0
30.8%
Michael Dickson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trevor Davis at the Cal 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:3471% → 88%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
29.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+16
28.9%
Jared Goff run for 16 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
27.5%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 8
50
+5
27.2%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+15
27.6%
Goff, Jared slant pass incomplete to Lawler, Kenny, PENALTY UT personal foul (Jefferson, Malik) 15 yards to the UT30, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
26.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 13 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
26.6%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+5
26.6%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
16.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 8 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+7
17.8%
Jerrod Heard run for 7 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
17.9%
Jerrod Heard run for 4 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-10
18.2%
Heard, Jerrod OUT pass incomplete to McNeal, DeAndre, PENALTY UT offensive holding (Doyle, Taylor) 10 yards to the UT42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+3
16.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+6
16.3%
Jerrod Heard run for 6 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
17.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trevor Davis at the Cal 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21TD
2 plays · 92 yds · 0:3687% → 97%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+18
13.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 18 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
3.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 74 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:525% → 15%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
4.7%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 38 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
5.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (James Looney) to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
5.6%
Johnathan Gray run for 6 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+7
5.1%
Chris Warren III run for 7 yds to the Cal 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
5.1%
Heard, Jerrod pass incomplete to Burt, John, PENALTY UT offensive holding (Doyle, Taylor) 10 yards to the CAL19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+4
4.9%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+2
4.9%
Jerrod Heard run for 2 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
15.1%
Jerrod Heard run for 13 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
9.1%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
9.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (Jared Goff) to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
9.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 11 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
8.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+7
9.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 7 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
8.8%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
9.5%
Jared Goff punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
9.0%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
50
+7
10.2%
Daje Johnson run for 7 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+12
10.9%
Jerrod Heard run for 12 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
11.7%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
11.5%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-7
10.6%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Puka Lopa for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 38 TEXAS Penalty, offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 17
OPP 38
-6
9.5%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Tony Mekari for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3095% → 96%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
5.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
5.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 1 yd to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
5.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
4.3%
Jared Goff punt for 45 yds, downed at the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 3:555% → 29%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
5.2%
Jerrod Heard run for 6 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+11
5.3%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Daje Johnson for 11 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.5%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.3%
Jerrod Heard run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
5.3%
Jerrod Heard run for 8 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
4.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
4.9%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to John Burt for 9 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
5.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
50
+15
5.0%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 15 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
5.8%
Jerrod Heard run for 8 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+27
29.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 27 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5191% → 90%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
9.0%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
8.9%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
8.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Stephen Anderson, broken up by Kevin VaccaroSimilar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
10.0%
Jared Goff punt for 25 yds, downed at the Texas 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 28TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 0:4012% → 43%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
11.7%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Jacorey Warrick, broken up by Caleb ColemanSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+17
11.5%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Johnathan Gray for 17 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
12.6%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 13 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
14.2%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Johnathan Gray for 6 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
18.0%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Jacorey WarrickSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+45
42.8%
Jerrod Heard run for 45 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:0081% → 78%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
18.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 15
OWN 48
-6
22.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:00
D'Onta Foreman run for 27 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)
+25.4
TD · Q4 1:11
Jerrod Heard run for 45 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose PAT MISSED)
+24.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-22.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com