Try the model
UTAH

Utah 45 at Fresno State 24

FRES
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.6FRES 17.9%Andy Phillips 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q1 4:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:14 · Andy Phillips 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior−33.4Home team on offense−1.0Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:42: Devontae Booker run for 30 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +4.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:00: Devontae Booker run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +7.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:21: Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 6 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +7.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:05: Garrett Swanson kickoff for 63 yds , Cory Butler-Byrd return for 98 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +9.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:02: Zack Greenlee pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 32 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +4.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 8UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:05FRES 4th & 11 at UTAH 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:29UTAH 4th & 1 at FRES 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:14UTAH 4th & 10 at FRES 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:21FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UTAH 4th & 4 at FRES 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:28FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:42UTAH 4th & 1 at FRES 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.7%−1.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:36FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:02UTAH 4th & 11 at UTAH 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:54UTAH 4th & 1 at FRES 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%−1.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:20FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:48FRES 4th & 4 at UTAH 8, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%−0.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−5.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:21FRES 4th & 6 at UTAH 6, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:12FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 3:42UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:00UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:21FRES Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:05UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:07FRES Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:02FRES Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:14UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 2FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5013% → 14%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
13.2%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 18Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
13.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
13.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete, broken up by Gionni PaulSimilar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+35
13.6%
Kody Kroening 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3FG
21 plays · 60 yds · 9:5186% → 82%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
13.6%
Devontae Booker run for 6 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
13.6%
Britain Covey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 29Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
13.6%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Tyrone Smith for 9 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
13.6%
Devontae Booker run for 2 yds to the Utah 40Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
13.6%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Devontae Booker for 6 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+2
13.5%
Devontae Booker run for 2 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
13.5%
Devontae Booker run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+10
13.5%
Joe Williams run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
13.5%
Devontae Booker run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
13.5%
Devontae Booker run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
13.5%
Devontae Booker run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
13.5%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Britain Covey for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
13.5%
Devontae Booker run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
13.5%
Devontae Booker run for no gain to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+3
17.4%
Devontae Booker run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
17.0%
Devontae Booker run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-1
17.0%
Kendal Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
17.3%
Kendal Thompson run for no gain to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
17.9%
Andy Phillips 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:3619% → 17%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
18.5%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+12
18.3%
Marteze Waller run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+7
18.3%
Chason Virgil run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+37
16.6%
Chason Virgil sacked by Kylie Fitts for a loss of 5 yards Chason Virgil fumbled, recovered by Utah Stevie Tu'ikolovatu , return for 0 yards , return for 37 yds, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
16.3%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
16.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 7 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-5
16.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+5
16.2%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
16.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:2983% → 84%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
16.6%
Thompson,Kendal pass incomplete to Scott, Kenneth, PENALTY FS pass interference (BROWN, Stratton) 15 yards to the UTAH35, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
16.2%
Kendal Thompson run for 6 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
16.0%
Joe Williams run for no gain to the Utah 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
16.0%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 7 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
15.9%
Devontae Booker run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
15.8%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Britain Covey for 2 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
15.9%
Kendal Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
16.3%
Tom Hackett punt for 38 yds, downed at the FrsSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+24
17.1%
Malique Micenheimer run for 24 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
17.6%
Malique Micenheimer run for no gain to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
17.5%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+9
17.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 9 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
17.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 48 yds, downed at the Utah 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8TD
17 plays · 89 yds · 6:5982% → 87%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
17.9%
Joe Williams run for 7 yds to the Utah 18 UTAH Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyrone Smith) to the Utah 8Similar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 13
OWN 8
0
18.1%
Kendal Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+12
18.2%
Devontae Booker run for 12 yds to the Utah 20Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+3
18.5%
Devontae Booker run for 3 yds to the Utah 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
18.3%
Kendal Thompson run for 3 yds to the Utah 26Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+10
18.1%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Harrison Handley for 10 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
17.7%
Kendal Thompson run for no gain to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
18.0%
Devontae Booker run for 9 yds to the Utah 45Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
17.5%
Devontae Booker run for 2 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
17.3%
Chase Hansen pass incomplete to Kenneth ScottSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
17.4%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Kenric Young for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 7
50
+11
17.4%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Siale Fakailoatonga for 11 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
17.1%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Devontae Booker for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
16.9%
Kendal Thompson run for no gain to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
17.1%
Kendal Thompson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+30
13.1%
Devontae Booker run for 30 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
13.1%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 2
OWN 24
-10
13.4%
WALLER, Marteze rush for loss of 2 yards to the FS22 (Fauonuku, Vilis), PENALTY FS holding (BONNHEIM, Bo) 10 yards to the FS14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+14
13.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 14 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
13.2%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
13.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Kylie FittsSimilar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
12.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
12.9%
Garrett Swanson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
12.9%
Thompson,Kendal pass incomplete to Scott, Kenneth, PENALTY FS pass interference (WASHINGTON, Cha) 15 yards to the UTAH43, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
12.4%
Kendal Thompson pass incomplete to Britain Covey, broken up by Dalen JonesSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
12.5%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Devontae Booker for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 42Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
12.7%
Kendal Thompson pass incomplete to Britain CoveySimilar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
13.3%
Tom Hackett punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Da'Mari Scott at the FrsSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0612% → 14%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
12.4%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
13.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 4 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+10
13.2%
Marteze Waller run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
13.6%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Josiah BlandinSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
13.5%
Marteze Waller run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
11.5%
Devontae Booker run for no gain to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
11.6%
Devontae Booker run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
11.8%
Devontae Booker run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+2
12.6%
Devontae Booker run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+20
11.5%
Kendal Thompson pass intercepted Tyquwan Glass return for 20 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
12.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 18 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
13.5%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
13.7%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
13.6%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
13.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 47 yds, downed at the Utah 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 4:4088% → 97%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
11.9%
Devontae Booker run for 4 yds to the Utah 11Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+1
11.9%
Devontae Booker run for 1 yd to the Utah 12Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+7
12.2%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Siale Fakailoatonga for 7 yds to the Utah 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+43
11.7%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Devontae Booker for 43 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
10.7%
Devontae Booker run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
10.5%
Devontae Booker run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+20
10.7%
Kendal Thompson run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
10.5%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Britain Covey for 3 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.6%
Devontae Booker run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16DOWNS
17 plays · 62 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
4.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Josiah Blandin, broken up by Reginald PorterSimilar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
4.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Josiah BlandinSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
4.2%
Chason Virgil run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
4.5%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
4.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 6 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
4.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 7 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+5
5.0%
Chason Virgil run for 5 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
4.8%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+6
5.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 6 yds to the Utah 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
5.3%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
5.3%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+9
5.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 9 yds to the Utah 14 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
5.4%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 15Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
5.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Marteze WallerSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 11
OWN 0
+7
4.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 7 yds to the Utah 8 UTAH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Utah 8Similar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 4
OPP 8
0
5.0%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Chad Olsen, broken up by Jared NorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:2498% → 98%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
2.2%
Kendal Thompson pass incomplete to Kenneth ScottSimilar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+3
2.2%
Joe Williams run for 3 yds to the Utah 11Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+9
2.2%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 9 yds to the Utah 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
2.0%
Bubba Poole run for 15 yds to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
2.0%
Kendal Thompson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 32 Kendal Thompson fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Claudell LouisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:054% → 11%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
3.5%
Dustin Garrison run for 3 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+10
3.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the Utah 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
3.6%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
3.5%
Chason Virgil run for 9 yds to the Utah 10Similar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
3.6%
Dustin Garrison run for 2 yds to the Utah 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
3.6%
Dustin Garrison run for 3 yds to the Utah 5Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
4.1%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete, broken up by Kylie FittsSimilar
Q4 14:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
4.0%
Dustin Garrison run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 6Similar
Q4 11:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 6 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:452% → 0%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
2.1%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+3
2.1%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 3 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
2.1%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+77
0.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 54 yds , Britain Covey returns for 77 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:580% → 2%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.2%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.2%
Malique Micenheimer run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+82
1.8%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 82 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:042% → 7%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
2.1%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 6 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
2.3%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+15
2.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds to the Utah 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
7.0%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 32 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 23TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:4695% → 100%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
4.8%
Devontae Booker run for 11 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
4.7%
Joe Williams run for 1 yd to the Utah 37Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
4.8%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Devontae Booker for 1 yd to the Utah 38Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+27
4.7%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Siale Fakailoatonga for 27 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
4.4%
Devontae Booker run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
4.4%
Kendal Thompson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+9
2.7%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Bubba Poole for 9 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
2.7%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Bubba Poole for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+4
2.8%
Devontae Booker run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+14
2.8%
Devontae Booker run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
2.7%
Devontae Booker run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.4%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Harrison Handley for 5 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
0.7%
Dustin Garrison run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:05
Garrett Swanson kickoff for 63 yds , Cory Butler-Byrd return for 98 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q3 6:00
Devontae Booker run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q4 11:21
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 6 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com