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COLO

Colorado 27 at Colorado State 24

CSU
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:36 · Diego Gonzalez 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Preston Hodges Trent Matthews return for no gain to the ColSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 86Home team on offense+1.4Score differential+0.3Pregame prior−1.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Time remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:44: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 65 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +11.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:28: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 24 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +10.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:50: Nick Stevens pass intercepted for a TD Kenneth Olugbode return for 60 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +31.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:29: Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +29.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Diego Gonzalez 32 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +32.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8COLO made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 7 at COLO 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:02COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:47COLO 4th & 16 at COLO 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:06COLO 4th & 14 at CSU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:01CSU 4th & 1 at COLO 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.8%−1.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:04COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:53CSU 4th & 8 at COLO 35, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:36COLO 4th & 6 at CSU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:54CSU 4th & 7 at COLO 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−12.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:46COLO 4th & 15 at CSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−2.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:08CSU 4th & 7 at COLO 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:08COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 24, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:30COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:50CSU 4th & 3 at COLO 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%−0.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−13.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:23COLO 4th & 5 at CSU 47, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:37CSU 4th & 6 at COLO 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−6.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%−3.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:09COLO 4th & 1 at CSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.0%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:47CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:44CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:44COLO Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:28COLO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:50COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:29CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
46.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 3 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
46.6%
Nick Stevens run for no gain to the Colo 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
46.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
46.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
46.8%
Devin Ross run for 3 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
46.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
46.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+10
46.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 48 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 10 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:1847% → 52%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
47.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+4
47.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+5
47.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 5 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
47.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 7 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+1
47.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+4
47.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
47.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+4
47.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+12
47.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 12 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
47.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the Colo 13Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
51.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 13 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
50.9%
Shay Fields run for 17 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
50.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
50.6%
Michael Adkins II run for 3 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+6
50.6%
Sefo Liufau run for 6 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
51.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-15
50.5%
COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (Alex Kelley) to the Colo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:3352% → 61%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
52.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 12 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
52.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 9 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
52.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 2 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
52.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jasen Oden Jr. for 9 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+5
52.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 5 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
52.8%
STEVENS, Nick pass incomplete to HANSLEY, Joe, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Ross, Devin) 12 yards to the COLO23, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
52.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-5
52.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Sam Carlson) to the Colo 25Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+25
60.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 25 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6FG
15 plays · 36 yds · 4:3841% → 40%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
58.6%
Christian Powell run for 9 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
58.0%
Christian Powell run for 5 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
58.3%
Christian Powell run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 4
50
+3
57.9%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-5
57.7%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Sam Kronshage) to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+6
58.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
57.9%
Nelson Spruce pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
58.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Christian Powell for 6 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+10
59.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 10 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
59.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-15
59.2%
Liufau, Sefo pass complete to Keeney, Dylan for 28 yards to the CS0, clock 14:03, PENALTY COLO personal foul (Nembot, Stephane) 15 yards to the CS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 23
OPP 43
0
60.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Phillip Lindsay, broken up by Martavius FosterSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 23
OPP 43
+9
61.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+52
59.6%
Diego Gonzalez 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 58 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
60.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 10 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
60.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Kivon CartwrightSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
60.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+36
59.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 36 yds to the COLOST 33 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
61.3%
Deionte Gaines run for 9 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-5
61.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Deionte Gaines) to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
61.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+5
60.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 5 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
60.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the Colo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
61.2%
Christian Powell run for 1 yd to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
61.3%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
61.6%
Sefo Liufau run for no gain to the Colo 28Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+11
62.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 48 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 11 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:5565% → 66%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
64.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
64.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe Hansley, broken up by Ken CrawleySimilar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+11
64.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 11 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
65.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
65.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+10
64.8%
Nick Stevens run for 10 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
65.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
65.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
64.9%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+52
66.0%
Wyatt Bryan 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
54.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 65 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
56.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+12
56.0%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Ken Crawley return for 12 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:1348% → 43%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
51.7%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+14
53.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 14 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
51.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+9
51.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 9 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 2
OPP 15
-4
55.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 19Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
57.2%
Diego Gonzalez 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Preston Hodges Trent Matthews return for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3243% → 58%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
56.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 9 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
55.9%
Christian Powell run for 7 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+6
54.4%
Christian Powell run for 6 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
53.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 16 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
52.8%
Christian Powell run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+10
55.5%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Fields, Shay, PENALTY CS holding (DAVIS, Kevin) 10 yards to the CS26, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
52.5%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
52.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
42.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 24 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:3445% → 58%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+42
45.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 42 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
50.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+8
50.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 8 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
50.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 7 yds to the Colo 13Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
50.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
48.9%
Nick Stevens run for 1 yd to the Colo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
50.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the Colo 9Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
50.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
51.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard Higgins, broken up by Ken CrawleySimilar
Q3 6:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
57.6%
Wyatt Bryan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+27
50.5%
Donovan Lee run for 12 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Preston Hodges) to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Christian PowellSimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
47.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
48.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay Fields, broken up by Tyree SimmonsSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 10
OPP 40
-5
51.3%
COLORADO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
52.4%
Alex Kinney punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:4656% → 58%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
55.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-5
55.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Nick Callender) to the ColSt 10Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 16
OWN 10
+4
55.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+16
53.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 16 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
56.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 10 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
58.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+9
59.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 9 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
60.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Sammie Long IV for 13 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
61.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
61.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete, broken up by Chidobe AwuzieSimilar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
59.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
58.1%
Wyatt Bryan 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
50.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 12 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
48.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
47.9%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
47.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin Ross, broken up by Trent MatthewsSimilar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
50.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3356% → 54%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
56.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+2
56.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 2 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+4
54.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Xavier Williams for 4 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
53.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
51.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
52.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Lee Walker for 4 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+1
52.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 1 yd to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+6
54.5%
Alex Kinney punt for 40 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 6 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21INT TD
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:0760% → 31%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
59.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 8 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
62.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Sammie Long IV for 4 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
62.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+12
59.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 12 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
62.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the Colo 38Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
62.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+60
30.7%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted for a TD Kenneth Olugbode return for 60 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2127% → 64%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
26.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 37 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
32.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+3
34.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
34.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
34.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
32.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+13
30.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 13 yds to the Colo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
34.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the Colo 3Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
34.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the Colo 1Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0049% → 51%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
50.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Dylan Keeney for 23 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
45.6%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 8
50
+3
45.0%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
45.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
49.2%
Alex Kinney punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:0058% → 60%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
57.9%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+33
57.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
50
+4
64.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
64.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Deionte GainesSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
63.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
59.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 1:0249% → 61%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
51.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 8 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
48.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Phillip LindsaySimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+15
50.6%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Lindsay, Phillip, PENALTY CS roughing passer (JAMES, Cory) 15 yards to the COLO43, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
45.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
47.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+9
49.1%
Sefo Liufau run for 9 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+18
47.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 18 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+48
39.0%
Diego Gonzalez 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26MISSED FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0065% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
64.7%
STEVENS, Nick pass incomplete to CARTWRIGHT, Kivon, PENALTY COLO roughing passer (Gilbert, Jimmie) 13 yards to the COLO12, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
64.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the Colo 9Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+1
64.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the Colo 8Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-2
62.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jasen Oden Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 10Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
58.6%
Wyatt Bryan 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tedric ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27FG
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0060% → 89%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
40.5%
Christian Powell run for 6 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+6
40.5%
Christian Powell run for 6 yds to the ColSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
40.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the ColSt 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-3
40.5%
Sefo Liufau run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 15Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+32
11.4%
Diego Gonzalez 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · OT 0:00
Diego Gonzalez 32 yd FG GOOD
-32.3
TD · Q4 8:50
Nick Stevens pass intercepted for a TD Kenneth Olugbode return for 60 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)
-31.8
TD · Q4 4:29
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+29.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com