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BYU

BYU 23 at UCLA 24

UCLA
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:39 · Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior+16.9Home team on offense−5.7Garbage-time factor−3.5Score differential−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:27: Paul Perkins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +17.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:26: Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 14 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +16.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:16: Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 19 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +26.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 5:39: Trevor Samson 32 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +8.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:21: Nate Starks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +37.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:45UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:40BYU 4th & 23 at UCLA 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:57BYU 4th & 16 at BYU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:24UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:23BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:38UCLA 4th & 9 at BYU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:46BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 24, up 4
    Close callPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:18BYU 4th & 10 at UCLA 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:04UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:42BYU 4th & 2 at UCLA 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−2.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:32BYU 4th & 5 at UCLA 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    39.8%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:22BYU 4th & 26 at BYU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−5.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:39UCLA 4th & 1 at BYU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    51.6%−4.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−16.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:10UCLA 4th & 10 at BYU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−1.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:41BYU 4th & 6 at UCLA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−7.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:39BYU 4th & 3 at UCLA 14, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.5%−2.6
    84% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−21.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:58BYU 4th & 7 at UCLA 42, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.3 ptsWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%−5.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%
    30% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−10.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:39BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:27UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:26BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:16UCLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:21UCLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0586% → 86%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
86.3%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+4
86.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
86.1%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
85.9%
Matt Mengel punt for 42 yds, downed at the BYU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:5114% → 17%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
85.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Adam Hine for 4 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+10
85.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 10 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
85.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 9 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+1
85.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 1 yd to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
85.2%
UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
85.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
84.9%
Adam Hine run for 11 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
84.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 9 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 1
OPP 12
0
84.6%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Terenn HoukSimilar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+5
84.6%
Harvey Langi run for 5 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.4%
Adam Hine run for 7 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:3017% → 18%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
83.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 9 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+10
83.0%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (10 Yards) to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
82.8%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 20
OPP 35
-6
82.4%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Aaron Wallace for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 26
OPP 41
-6
82.1%
Tanner Mangum run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 32
OPP 47
+9
82.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 9 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 23
OPP 38
0
81.9%
Jonny Linehan punt for 30 yds, downed at the UCLA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4INT
7 plays · 83 yds · 1:5682% → 82%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
81.8%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 9Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+17
81.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 17 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
81.5%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+44
81.5%
Paul Perkins run for 44 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
82.2%
Nate Starks run for 13 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
82.1%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+15
81.7%
Josh Rosen pass intercepted Harvey Langi return for 15 yds to the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1320% → 21%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
80.2%
Adam Hine run for 8 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+7
79.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 7 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
79.5%
Adam Hine run for 1 yd to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-7
79.1%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Isaako Savaiinaea for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
79.8%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+10
79.1%
Jonny Linehan punt for 48 yds , Devin Fuller returns for 10 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:1679% → 78%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
78.6%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
79.2%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
78.8%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+1
78.1%
Matt Mengel punt for 42 yds , Micah Hannemann returns for 1 yd to the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3022% → 22%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
77.7%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
77.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:23
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
78.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 36 yds, downed at the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:4578% → 79%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
78.3%
UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 26
+44
77.3%
Paul Perkins run for 44 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
78.8%
Paul Perkins run for 8 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+4
78.7%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
78.5%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
78.5%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the BYU 17Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
77.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
79.3%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3921% → 22%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
78.7%
BYU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BYU 11Similar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+10
78.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 10 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
77.7%
Adam Hine run for 3 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
77.8%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+14
78.3%
Jonny Linehan punt for 45 yds , Devin Fuller returns for 14 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10INT
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:2379% → 78%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
78.8%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+6
77.7%
Josh Rosen pass intercepted Harvey Langi return for 6 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3124% → 28%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
75.7%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+12
75.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 12 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
74.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Adam HineSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
74.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-5
75.2%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+5
75.7%
Adam Hine run for 5 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
71.8%
Trevor Samson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5673% → 70%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
73.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 2 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
72.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the UCLA 42 Soso Jamabo fumbled, recovered by UCLA Jake BrendelSimilar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
71.6%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+20
70.4%
Matt Mengel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Micah Hannemann at the BYU 23 UCLA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 27 yds · 5:2631% → 37%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
68.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 9 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
67.7%
Adam Hine run for no gain to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
68.4%
Harvey Langi run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
50
+4
67.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Adam Hine for 4 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
66.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 3 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
66.3%
Adam Hine run for 1 yd to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+2
66.8%
Adam Hine run for 2 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
65.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 5 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
64.1%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-3
62.1%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Isaako Savaiinaea and Deon Hollins for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
63.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14INT
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:5366% → 67%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
66.3%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
68.4%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
67.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 15 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
67.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 14 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
69.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
69.2%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
67.2%
Josh Rosen pass intercepted, touchback. Kai Nacua return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:2238% → 39%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
61.8%
Adam Hine run for 15 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
60.6%
Nate Carter run for 1 yd to the BYU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 3:2740% → 42%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.9%
Adam Hine run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
58.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 11 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
56.7%
Adam Hine run for 1 yd to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
56.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-10
55.8%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 14
OWN 37
-5
58.3%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 19
OWN 32
-7
58.9%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Jacob Tuioti-Mariner for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 26
OWN 25
+56
58.4%
Rhett Almond punt for 48 yds , Devin Fuller returns for 56 yds to the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4363% → 76%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
62.7%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+2
62.2%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+3
60.1%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+3
58.2%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.1%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5631% → 54%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
69.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
67.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 8 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
66.3%
Adam Hine run for 28 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
63.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 12 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
63.1%
Trey Dye run for 1 yd to the UCLA 18Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+4
62.7%
Adam Hine run for 4 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
45.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 14 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19PUNT
15 plays · 40 yds · 3:1052% → 51%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
51.8%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+9
53.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 9 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
51.9%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
52.9%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
52.8%
Nate Starks run for 5 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
54.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Mossi Johnson for 3 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-5
53.6%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+9
52.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 9 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
56.0%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
55.4%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
53.7%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
50.5%
Matt Mengel punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Micah Hannemann at the BYU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:1654% → 69%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
46.0%
Adam Hine run for 2 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+6
45.8%
Adam Hine run for 6 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+22
44.6%
Adam Hine run for 22 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
40.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 5 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
39.4%
Nate Carter run for 7 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
36.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 8 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+8
36.1%
Adam Hine run for 8 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
32.8%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Adam HineSimilar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
32.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 4 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
32.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+45
31.4%
Trevor Samson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:1033% → 64%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+33
32.5%
Paul Perkins run for 33 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
38.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Mossi Johnson for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+7
38.4%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
37.2%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
64.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 19 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22FG
17 plays · 61 yds · 6:3450% → 77%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Kurt HendersonSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
49.7%
Tanner Mangum run for 9 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
46.3%
Adam Hine run for 3 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
42.6%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+8
41.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 8 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
38.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
38.9%
Adam Hine run for 3 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+13
38.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 13 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
35.3%
Adam Hine run for 2 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
34.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+9
36.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 9 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
33.2%
Tanner Mangum run for 1 yd to the UCLA 20Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
32.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Tanner Mangum for 4 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+2
31.1%
Adam Hine run for 2 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+32
22.9%
Trevor Samson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:0033% → 78%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
32.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 9 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+7
34.3%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
32.4%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+31
33.2%
Nate Starks run for 31 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
40.5%
Nate Starks run for 22 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
40.1%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.8%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:1135% → 33%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
65.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 19 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
63.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 11 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
62.4%
Tanner Mangum run for no gain to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
64.8%
Adam Hine run for 10 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
59.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
61.7%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
62.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+18
67.2%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Myles Jack return for 3 yds to the UCLA 39 UCLA Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the UCLA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5379% → 93%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
79.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 16Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 11
OWN 16
-1
78.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 15Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 15
-1
93.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:21
Nate Starks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
+37.7
TD · Q4 12:16
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 19 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
+26.9
TD · Q3 9:27
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
+17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com