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STAN

Stanford 41 at USC 31

USC
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:45 · Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 13 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior+10.4Home team on offense−1.3Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:03: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 17 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +14.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:08: Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +13.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:55: Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +21.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:21: Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +21.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:19: Alex Wood 36 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +12.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:01STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:46USC 4th & 2 at USC 14, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:44STAN 4th & 10 at USC 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:26USC 4th & 22 at USC 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:47STAN 4th & 17 at STAN 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−3.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:45USC 4th & 3 at STAN 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%−1.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:19USC 4th & 18 at USC 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−6.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:19USC 4th & 6 at STAN 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−8.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:27STAN 4th & 4 at USC 29, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:04USC 4th & 13 at STAN 23, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:05USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:49STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:53USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:29USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:53STAN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:03STAN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:08USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:55STAN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:21STAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:4574% → 74%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
73.7%
Tre Madden run for 5 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
73.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tre Madden for 3 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+6
73.6%
Tre Madden run for 6 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
73.6%
Tre Madden run for 30 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
73.7%
Justin Davis run for 15 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
73.6%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+4
73.6%
Tre Madden run for 4 yds to the Stanf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
73.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 2 yds to the Stanf 5Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
74.3%
Tre Madden run for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:5926% → 25%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
74.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 9 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+4
73.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
74.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 7 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+8
73.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 8 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
73.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-9
73.7%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Su'a Cravens for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
74.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Remound WrightSimilar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
74.6%
Alex Robinson punt for 48 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for no gain to the USC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1575% → 74%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
74.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+2
74.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 2
OWN 14
0
74.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete USC Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 2
OWN 14
0
74.0%
Kris Albarado punt for 52 yds, downed at the Stanf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:3126% → 31%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
74.3%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
74.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
74.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
73.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+11
73.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 11 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
73.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for 21 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
73.1%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
69.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 16 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4771% → 76%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
71.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 31 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
72.3%
Tre Madden run for 2 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+11
72.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 11 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
72.5%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+23
72.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 23 yds to the Stanf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:0626% → 29%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.5%
Barry Sanders run for 4 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
74.3%
Barry Sanders run for 6 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+41
74.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 41 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
72.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 4
OPP 18
-15
72.6%
McCaffrey, Christian rush for 3 yards to the USC15, PENALTY STANFORD illegal block (Shuler, Graham) 15 yards to the USC33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 19
OPP 33
+9
73.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 9 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
73.4%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
71.4%
Conrad Ukropina 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 3:1572% → 79%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
71.6%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (JuJu Smith-Schuster) to the USC 8Similar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+3
71.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+5
71.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 5 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+4
70.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
71.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
70.8%
Kessler, Cody pass incomplete to Smith-Schuster, JuJu (Harris, Ronnie), PENALTY STANFORD pass interference (Harris, Ronnie) 7 yards to the USC30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
71.5%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
71.5%
Dominic Davis run for 19 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
72.7%
Dominic Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+54
79.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 54 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 5:0722% → 33%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
78.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 17Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+22
78.1%
Kevin Hogan run for 22 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
77.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+12
76.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Remound Wright for 12 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
77.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the USC 40Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+10
77.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
76.6%
Remound Wright run for 5 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+24
77.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 24 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.2%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 2:2771% → 71%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+25
71.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Isaac Whitney for 25 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
72.7%
Tre Madden run for 2 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
72.8%
Tre Madden run for 7 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
72.6%
Tre Madden run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
73.6%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-10
73.6%
Kessler, Cody pass incomplete to Smith-Schuster, JuJu (Harris, Ronnie), PENALTY USC holding (Wheeler, Chad) 10 yards to the USC43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+3
71.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 15
OWN 46
-7
71.9%
Cody Kessler sacked by Joey Alfieri for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 39Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 22
OWN 39
0
71.0%
Kris Albarado punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 1:1225% → 45%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
74.9%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+24
74.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 24 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
72.4%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
71.5%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Francis OwusuSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+10
73.0%
Kevin Hogan run for 10 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
71.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 22 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
69.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
54.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 17 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
61.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5841% → 40%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
58.6%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Greg Townsend Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 24Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-6
59.9%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Anthony Sarao for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 18Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
60.5%
Alex Robinson punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:3763% → 77%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
62.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tre Madden for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 45Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+5
60.0%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+7
60.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 7 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+13
59.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 13 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
62.9%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the Stanf 19Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+18
62.9%
Cody Kessler run for 18 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 5:0528% → 53%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
71.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
71.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+4
71.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 4 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
70.9%
Barry Sanders run for 2 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (Cody Temple) to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
71.4%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Christian McCaffreySimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
72.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+22
71.2%
Remound Wright run for 22 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
69.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+15
69.0%
Hogan, Kevin pass incomplete to McCaffrey, Christian, PENALTY USC pass interference (Smith, Cameron) 15 yards to the USC7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
69.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.2%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:1656% → 52%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
55.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 2 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+7
55.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Isaac Whitney for 7 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-15
56.5%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Max Tuerk) to the USC 18Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 16
OWN 18
-2
52.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 16Similar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 18
OWN 16
0
51.9%
Kris Albarado punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16TD
13 plays · 46 yds · 6:5452% → 82%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
47.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 49Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+10
50.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 10 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+10
47.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 10 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
45.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+2
45.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+10
45.9%
Kevin Hogan run for 10 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
44.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+2
44.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 4
OPP 11
-5
44.7%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 16Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+15
41.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 15 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.1%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.4%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 1:5125% → 35%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
25.3%
Justin Davis run for 12 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
27.0%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
23.3%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+19
21.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 19 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
25.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Stanf 22Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
25.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+3
22.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tre Madden for 3 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
35.4%
Alex Wood 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 6:4875% → 95%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
25.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+6
23.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
23.6%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Joshua Garnett) to the Stanf 26Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+14
23.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 14 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+3
21.1%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
19.1%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
16.5%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+19
16.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 19 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
13.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the USC 34Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
11.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+3
11.5%
Kevin Hogan run for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
5.4%
Conrad Ukropina 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 52 yds · 2:116% → 5%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
6.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
5.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 15 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
5.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (Max Tuerk) to the USC 39Similar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+5
5.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
5.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 4
50
+9
5.4%
Kessler, Cody pass incomplete to Rogers, Darreus, PENALTY STANFORD pass interference (Murphy, Alameen) 9 yards to the STANFORD41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
5.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 21 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
7.3%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+12
6.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 12 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 13
OPP 23
0
6.7%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 13
OPP 23
0
5.4%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 13
OPP 23
0
4.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:55
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-21.8
TD · Q4 11:21
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-21.7
TD · Q2 0:03
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 17 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com