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NAU

Northern Arizona 13 at Arizona 77

ARIZ
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadNAU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreNAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:42 · Ryan Hawkins punt for 37 yds, downed at the Ariz 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Pregame prior+44.7Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.2Blowout margin+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 10:01: Ryan Hawkins 39 yd FG GOOD — NAU win probability +0.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:52: Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 62 yds for a TD, (Ryan Hawkins KICK) — NAU win probability +1.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 8:35: Nick Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:33: Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 14 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:14: Nick Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:01NAU 4th & 3 at ARIZ 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:21NAU 4th & 3 at ARIZ 3, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:19ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:42NAU 4th & 6 at NAU 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:26NAU 4th & 13 at NAU 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:00NAU 4th & 11 at NAU 22, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:53ARIZ 4th & 1 at NAU 21, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 30, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:17NAU 4th & 15 at NAU 31, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:24NAU 4th & 9 at NAU 26, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:01ARIZ 4th & 6 at NAU 39, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:59NAU 4th & 15 at NAU 44, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:48NAU 4th & 8 at NAU 24, down 57
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 11 of 11NAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:06ARIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:19ARIZ Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:52NAU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:25ARIZ Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:35ARIZ Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:33ARIZ Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:14ARIZ Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:17ARIZ Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:24ARIZ Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:50ARIZ Touchdown, up 49 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:54ARIZ Touchdown, up 56 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:45ARIZ Touchdown, up 63 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAUDrive 1FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 4:592% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
98.2%
Nick Butier run for 3 yds to the NoArz 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
98.2%
Kendyl Taylor run for 1 yd to the NoArz 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 0
0
98.2%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Kendyl Taylor, dropped pass, PENALTY NAU holding off-setting, PENALTY ARIZ offside off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+18
98.2%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 18 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.2%
Case Cookus pass complete to Alex Holmes for no gain to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+20
98.2%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 20 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
98.2%
Case Cookus run for 1 yd to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-15
98.2%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 12 yards to the ARIZ15, PENALTY NAU pass interference 15 yards to the ARIZ42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 24
OPP 42
-5
98.2%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 29
OPP 47
+9
98.2%
Case Cookus run for 9 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 38
+17
98.2%
Case Cookus run for 17 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
97.6%
Ryan Hawkins 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:4798% → 98%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
97.6%
Nick Wilson run for 12 yds to the NoArz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
97.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 11 yds to the NoArz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
97.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 9 yds to the NoArz 19Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+7
97.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 7 yds to the NoArz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
97.6%
Nick Wilson run for 11 yds to the NoArz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.5%
Anu Solomon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 3FG
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:453% → 3%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+69
97.4%
Case Cookus pass complete to Dejzon Walker for 69 yds to the Ariz 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
97.3%
Corbin Jountti run for 1 yd to the Ariz 5Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
97.3%
Nick Butier run for 2 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.4%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
97.1%
Ryan Hawkins 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
97.1%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+6
97.1%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+8
97.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 8 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
97.1%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
97.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate Phillips, broken up by Darius LewisSimilar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
97.1%
Drew Riggleman punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.8%
Nick Butier run for 4 yds to the NoArz 24Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
96.8%
Nick Butier run for 7 yds to the NoArz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
96.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Kendyl Taylor for 7 yards to the NAU38 (Denson, C.), PENALTY NAU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the NAU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+1
96.8%
Dejzon Walker run for 1 yd to the NoArz 27Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+8
96.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Dejzon Walker for 8 yds to the NoArz 35Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
96.8%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Alex Holmes, broken up by Will ParksSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
96.9%
Ryan Hawkins punt for 37 yds, downed at the Ariz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:0396% → 97%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
96.4%
Nick Wilson run for 12 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.5%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
96.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 14 yds to the NoArz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
96.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 14 yds to the NoArz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
96.6%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoArz 29Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
96.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 1 yd to the NoArz 28Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+11
96.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 11 yds to the NoArz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
96.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 10 yds to the NoArz 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
96.2%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 8Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 8 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:273% → 5%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.6%
Kendyl Taylor run for 3 yds to the NoArz 28Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
96.6%
Case Cookus pass incomplete, broken up by Sani FuimaonoSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
96.7%
Case Cookus sacked by Anthony Lopez for a loss of 8 yards to the NoArz 20Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+15
96.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NoArz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoArzSimilar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+5
96.6%
Kendyl Taylor run for 5 yds to the NoArz 38Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+62
95.0%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 62 yds for a TD, (Ryan Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2795% → 96%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
95.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 19 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
95.4%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
95.4%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+5
95.3%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoArz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
95.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 5 yds to the NoArz 41Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+14
95.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 14 yds to the NoArz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
96.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 27 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 9INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.0%
Case Cookus pass complete to R.J. Rickert for 6 yds to the NoArz 31Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
95.9%
Case Cookus pass incomplete, broken up by Jarvis McCall Jr.Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Case Cookus pass intercepted DaVonte' Neal return for no gain to the NoArz 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:0996% → 97%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
96.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 25
OWN 48
+43
95.9%
Nick Wilson run for 43 yds to the NoArz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
96.1%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the NoArz 1Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.2%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
96.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Dejzon Walker for 7 yds to the NoArz 40Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-10
96.5%
Corbin Jountti rush for loss of 2 yards to the NAU38 (Lopez, A.), PENALTY NAU holding 10 yards to the NAU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 13
OWN 30
-6
96.7%
Corbin Jountti run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoArz 24Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 19
OWN 24
+6
96.8%
Corbin Jountti run for 6 yds to the NoArz 30Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
96.8%
Ryan Hawkins punt for 37 yds, downed at the Ariz 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:3497% → 99%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
96.8%
Nick Wilson run for 11 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
96.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+14
96.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Shun Brown for 14 yds to the NoArz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
97.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 3 yds to the NoArz 39Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+19
97.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 19 yds to the NoArz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate Phillips, broken up by Marcus AlfordSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
97.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 6 yds to the NoArz 14Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
98.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 14 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:262% → 2%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
98.3%
Nick Butier run for 2 yds to the NoArz 25Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
98.3%
Kendyl Taylor run for 1 yd to the NoArz 26Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-4
98.4%
Case Cookus sacked by Cam Denson for a loss of 4 yards to the NoArz 22Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
98.3%
Ryan Hawkins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 1:3999% → 100%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
98.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jonathan Haden for 8 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+10
98.8%
Nick Wilson run for 10 yds to the NoArz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
98.8%
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds to the NoArz 36Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+6
98.8%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the NoArz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.8%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
98.8%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+9
98.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 9 yds to the NoArz 21Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+4
98.7%
Anu Solomon run for 4 yds to the NoArz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+16
98.8%
Anu Solomon run for 16 yds to the NoArz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.5%
Corbin Jountti run for 4 yds to the NoArz 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Josh Kern for 4 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Drew Riggleman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Alex Holmes at the NoArz 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
99.6%
Corbin Jountti run for 3 yds to the NoArz 32Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+15
99.6%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Elijah Marks, PENALTY ARIZ pass interference 15 yards to the NAU47, 1ST DOWN NAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.6%
Kyren Poe pass intercepted Cam Denson return for no gain to the Ariz 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
99.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 31 yds to the NoArz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
99.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 6 yds to the NoArz 26Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-5
99.7%
Anu Solomon sacked by Neal Murphy and Javere Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the NoArz 31Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+15
99.7%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the NoArz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
99.7%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoArz 13Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 13 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.7%
Corbin Jountti run for 1 yd to the NoArz 26Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.8%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 4 yds to the NoArz 30Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.7%
Kyren Poe run for 6 yds to the NoArz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.7%
Corbin Jountti run for 2 yds to the NoArz 38Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-9
99.7%
Kyren Poe sacked by Sani Fuimaono for a loss of 9 yards to the NoArz 29Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+2
99.8%
Corbin Jountti run for 2 yds to the NoArz 31Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Ryan Hawkins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
99.8%
Jerrard Randall run for 72 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Dejzon Walker for 3 yds to the NoArz 28Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
99.9%
Corbin Jountti run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 26Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Dejzon WalkerSimilar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Ryan Hawkins punt for 50 yds, downed at the Ariz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
99.8%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Jonathan Haden for 8 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+25
99.8%
Jared Baker run for 25 yds to the NoArz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the NoArz 41Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the NoArz 39Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Jerrard Randall run for 4 yds to the NoArz 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Dejzon Walker for 1 yd to the NoArz 36Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Corbin Jountti run for 1 yd to the NoArz 37Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+12
99.9%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Alex Holmes for 12 yds to the NoArz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Corbin Jountti run for 4 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Alex HolmesSimilar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-9
99.9%
Kyren Poe sacked by Calvin Allen for a loss of 9 yards to the NoArz 44Similar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Ryan Hawkins punt for 47 yds, downed at the Ariz 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
99.9%
Jared Baker run for 7 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+6
99.9%
Jared Baker run for 6 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.9%
Zach Green run for 2 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+73
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 73 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 25INT
8 plays · 52 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
100.0%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 15 yds to the NoArz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
99.9%
Kendyl Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 33Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Kendyl TaylorSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+14
100.0%
Kyren Poe pass complete to R.J. Rickert for 14 yds to the NoArz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.9%
Nick Butier run for 7 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+17
99.9%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Elijah Marks for 17 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Kyren Poe pass intercepted - Flanniganfowles return for no gain to the Ariz 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26TD
4 plays · 91 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+31
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for 31 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
99.9%
Zach Green run for 17 yds to the NoArz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for 43 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
100.0%
Nick Butier run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 21Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+4
100.0%
Nick Butier run for 4 yds to the NoArz 25Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
Kyren Poe sacked by TEAM for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 24Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Ryan Hawkins punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 28TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
100.0%
Zach Werlinger run for 17 yds to the NoArz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
100.0%
Zach Green run for 9 yds to the NoArz 27Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+14
100.0%
Jonathan Haden run for 14 yds to the NoArz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
100.0%
Jonathan Haden run for 2 yds to the NoArz 11Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
100.0%
Zach Werlinger run for 11 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 29END OF GAME
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
100.0%
Aaryn Dorsett run for 2 yds to the NoArz 19Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
100.0%
Aaryn Dorsett run for 4 yds to the NoArz 23Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+9
100.0%
Aaryn Dorsett run for 9 yds to the NoArz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
Aaryn Dorsett run for 2 yds to the NoArz 34Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
100.0%
Aaryn Dorsett run for 2 yds to the NoArz 36Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+15
100.0%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Jonathan Baldwin for 15 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Aaryn Dorsett run for no gain to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
100.0%
Aaryn Dorsett run for 3 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-1
100.0%
Aaryn Dorsett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:33
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 14 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 11:52
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 62 yds for a TD, (Ryan Hawkins KICK)
-1.6
TD · Q2 8:35
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com