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UCF

UCF 7 at Stanford 31

STAN
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+2.4STAN 99.0%Kevin Hogan pass complete to BryceLove for 93 yds for a TD, (ConradUkropina KICK)AWAY 0 - HOME 24 · Q4 9:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:06 · Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for 93 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior+7.0Home team on offense+30.5Score differential+22.6Garbage-time factor+13.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+4.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:23: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 53 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +6.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:23: William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 33 — UCF win probability +1.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:52: Conrad Ukropina 52 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +1.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:15: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 7 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +7.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:06: Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for 93 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:35UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:51STAN 4th & 17 at UCF 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:57UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:03STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:42UCF 4th & 9 at STAN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    17.9%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:43STAN 4th & 1 at UCF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.8%−0.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:34STAN 4th & 7 at UCF 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:23UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:52STAN 4th & 6 at UCF 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00UCF 4th & 10 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:44STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:02UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00STAN 4th & 3 at UCF 4, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−3.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:23UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:58UCF 4th & 10 at STAN 49, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:00UCF 4th & 21 at STAN 40, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:00STAN 4th & 4 at UCF 40, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 4:23STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:15STAN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:06STAN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:13STAN Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:22UCF Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
88.1%
Michael Rector run for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+2
88.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 18
0
88.1%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
88.1%
Alex Robinson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
87.7%
Justin Holman run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
87.7%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
87.7%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
87.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
15 plays · 51 yds · 3:0988% → 86%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
87.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 17Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+10
87.6%
Remound Wright run for 10 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
87.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
87.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 13 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
87.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 15 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
87.7%
PENALTY STAN holding (Wright,R) 10 yards to the STAN45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+8
87.6%
Bryce Love run for 8 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+21
86.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 21 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
86.9%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 15
OPP 31
-2
86.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+15
86.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 15 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 2
OPP 18
-15
86.8%
Hogan,K rush for 8 yards to the UCF10 (SPENCER, D.), PENALTY STAN illegal block (Garnett,J) 15 yards to the UCF33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 17
OPP 33
0
86.7%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon Cajuste, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 17
OPP 33
0
86.4%
Jake Bailey punt for 33 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
85.5%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
85.3%
Bo Schneider pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
85.6%
Bo Schneider pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+16
85.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 56 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 16 yds to the Stanf 41 STANFORD Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Stanf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.2%
Barry Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 24Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
85.2%
Hogan,K pass incomplete to Cajuste,D (BURKETT, C.), PENALTY UCF pass interference (BURKETT, C.) 9 yards to the STAN33, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
85.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
85.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
85.1%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
84.9%
Alex Robinson punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
84.5%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-1
84.4%
Bo Schneider run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+11
84.7%
SCHNEIDER, Bo pass incomplete to AKINS, Jordan, PENALTY STAN pass interference (Lloyd,D) 11 yards to the UCF45, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
84.2%
Taj McGowan run for 9 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+10
84.0%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Taj McGowan for a loss of 5 yards to the STANFORD 49 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
84.0%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-2
83.8%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 35Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
84.1%
Bo Schneider pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
84.6%
Bo Schneider pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 27 yds · 3:3384% → 82%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+10
83.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 10 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
83.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+6
84.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 6 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
83.9%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Devon CajusteSimilar
Q2 13:43
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+3
83.1%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
83.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+7
82.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
83.1%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael Rector, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
82.4%
Jake Bailey punt for 34 yds, downed at the UCF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8FUMBLE
14 plays · 60 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
81.1%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+5
81.2%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 5 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+6
81.5%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Jordan Akins for 6 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
80.9%
Taj McGowan run for 9 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+2
80.4%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
80.7%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Chris Johnson for 7 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
80.2%
Taj McGowan run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 3
OPP 0
0
79.5%
SCHNEIDER, Bo pass complete to STANBACK, W. for no gain to the UCF35 (Perez,J), PENALTY STAN personal foul off-setting, PENALTY UCF holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+8
80.6%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Jordan Akins for 8 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
79.9%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
79.8%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Blake Martinez UCF Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+14
80.2%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Jordan Akins for 14 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
79.5%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
79.6%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the Stanf 36 William Stanback fumbled, forced by Dallas Lloyd, recovered by Stanf Brennan ScarlettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:1980% → 86%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
79.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
80.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
80.2%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
86.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 53 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
Q2 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
85.9%
STANFORD Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Michael Rector) to the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
84.3%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
84.2%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to William StanbackSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
84.7%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Blake MartinezSimilar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+16
85.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 50 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 16 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:3486% → 88%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
86.0%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+6
85.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Remound Wright for 6 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+9
86.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 9 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
86.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 6 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
87.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 6 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.1%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
87.0%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+4
86.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Remound Wright for 4 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+52
87.9%
Conrad Ukropina 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
87.8%
Bo Schneider run for 1 yd to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
88.0%
Bo Schneider run for no gain to the UCF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.6%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
85.0%
Taj McGowan run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-1
84.5%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+1
85.1%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
50
0
85.4%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
50
0
86.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 49 yds, downed at the Stanf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
86.9%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 4Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+12
86.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 12 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
87.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+1
87.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 21Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+25
86.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 25 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
88.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-2
88.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 49Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
87.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
86.4%
Alex Robinson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Akins at the UCF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
86.9%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-1
86.9%
Nick Patti run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+13
87.6%
SCHNEIDER, Bo pass incomplete to SMITH, Tre'Quan, PENALTY STAN pass interference (Holder,A) 13 yards to the UCF27, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
86.5%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+1
86.4%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
87.0%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Nick PattiSimilar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
87.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:1088% → 96%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+42
87.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for 42 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
88.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
88.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+8
88.2%
Kevin Hogan run for 8 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
88.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+11
88.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 11 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
88.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
96.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 7 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
95.2%
MCGOWAN, Taj rush for 8 yards to the UCF30 (Martinez,B), PENALTY UCF holding (COOK, Tarik) 10 yards to the UCF12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+10
95.3%
Bo Schneider pass intercepted Blake Martinez return for 10 yds to the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3196% → 96%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
96.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+1
96.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+2
96.2%
Kevin Hogan run for 2 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+2
95.8%
Kevin Hogan run for 2 yds to the UCF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
96.3%
SCHNEIDER, Bo pass incomplete to SMITH, Tre'Quan, QB hurry by Alfieri,J, PENALTY STAN pass interference (Murphy,A) 15 yards to the UCF17, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
96.1%
Taj McGowan run for no gain to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
96.2%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Tristan Payton for 11 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
96.0%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
95.9%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
96.0%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Nick PattiSimilar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
96.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 2:2597% → 99%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
96.8%
McCaffrey,C rush for 10 yards to the STAN27 (MUTCHERSON, TJ), PENALTY STAN holding (Cajuste,D) 8 yards to the STAN9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+4
96.7%
Barry Sanders run for 4 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 14
OWN 13
-1
96.7%
Barry Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 12Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 15
OWN 12
-5
96.7%
STANFORD Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 7Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 20
OWN 7
+93
99.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for 93 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 21 yds · 2:061% → 1%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.0%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Jordan Akins for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
99.0%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Nick Patti for 8 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Chris JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by Ronnie HarrisSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+16
99.2%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Jordan Akins for 16 yds to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.1%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Jordan PerezSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
99.1%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by Ronnie HarrisSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.2%
Tyler Harris sacked by Solomon Thomas for a loss of 11 yards to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Solomon Thomas) to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.0%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete, broken up by Alijah HolderSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-22
99.1%
Tyler Harris sacked by Peter Kalambayi for a loss of 22 yards to the UCF 39 Tyler Harris fumbled, recovered by UCF Aaron Evans , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 42
OWN 39
+21
99.5%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Cedric Thompson for 21 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 21
OPP 40
0
99.5%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:47100% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.5%
Barry Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 39Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+15
99.5%
Barry Sanders run for 15 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.5%
Ryan Burns run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+3
99.5%
Barry Sanders run for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
99.5%
Barry Sanders run for no gain to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+20
99.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Rollins Stallworth for 20 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
100.0%
Barry Sanders run for 20 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
100.0%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Cedric Thompson for 3 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Ben EdwardsSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+17
100.0%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Tristan Payton for 17 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
99.6%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 36 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
99.7%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-1
99.7%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:15
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 7 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q2 4:23
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 53 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q4 9:06
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Bryce Love for 93 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com