2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadSAC aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreSAC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:51 · Korey Durkee punt for 41 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:13: Myles Gaskin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:24: Myles Gaskin run for 16 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +1.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:18: Dwayne Washington run for 11 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:59: Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 13 yds to the Wash 23 for a 1ST down — WASH win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:43: Dwayne Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7SAC made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 10:49SAC 4th & 3 at WASH 27, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.5%52% to convertField goalTheir call4.4%−0.162% to makePunt4.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:49WASH 4th & 1 at SAC 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.6%70% to convertField goal95.4%−0.228% to makePunt95.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 4:57SAC 4th & 1 at WASH 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.0%71% to convertField goal5.8%−0.254% to makePunt5.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 4:51WASH 4th & 17 at SAC 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snapGo for it94.0%−0.115% to convertField goal94.1%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call94.1%average punt
- Q1 3:22SAC 4th & 5 at SAC 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it6.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q2 13:13SAC 4th & 6 at SAC 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it6.1%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q2 7:24WASH 4th & 1 at SAC 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.0%71% to convertField goal92.5%−0.581% to makePunt91.2%−1.7average punt
- Q2 7:08WASH 4th & 1 at SAC 17, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.8%71% to convertField goal94.3%−0.580% to makePunt92.8%−2.0average punt
- Q2 4:11SAC 4th & 7 at WASH 45, down 21Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.7%37% to convertField goal2.4%−0.225% to makePuntTheir call2.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 14:52WASH 4th & 6 at SAC 43, up 28Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%40% to convertField goal99.3%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:58SAC 4th & 12 at WASH 46, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.123% to convertField goal0.4%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 9:57SAC 4th & 7 at SAC 41, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 6:42SAC 4th & 6 at SAC 36, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:39SAC 4th & 10 at SAC 22, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 3:35WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 37, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 15:00SAC 4th & 10 at WASH 44, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.0%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:53WASH 4th & 1 at SAC 29, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.8%−0.258% to makePunt99.5%−0.5average punt
- Q4 5:05SAC 4th & 14 at SAC 42, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q2 13:13WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:24WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:18WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:43WASH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:57WASH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:49WASH Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:45WASH Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSACDrive 1MISSED FG12 plays · 48 yds · 4:113% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.4%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Isiah Hennie for 3 yds to the SacSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
97.4%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Shane Harrison for 11 yds to the SacSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
97.4%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Stone Sander for 15 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+11
97.4%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Isiah Hennie for 11 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
97.4%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Isiah Hennie for 7 yds to the Wash 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2DOWNS5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
96.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 21 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-5
96.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for a loss of 5 yards to the Wash 44Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+13
96.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 13 yds to the SacSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 3DOWNS8 plays · 19 yds · 3:144% → 5%
WASHDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
SACDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.3%
Daniel Kniffin pass incomplete to Stone Sander, broken up by Budda BakerSimilar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+1
95.3%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Jordan Robinson for 1 yd to the SacSt 25Similar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+12
95.4%
Smith Heath punt for 50 yds , Dante Pettis returns for 12 yds to the Wash 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD9 plays · 63 yds · 3:4095% → 96%
SACDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 13:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
95.3%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Isiah Hennie for 3 yds to the SacSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD8 plays · 66 yds · 3:0695% → 96%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
94.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Brayden Lenius for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
50
+15
95.1%
Browning, Jake pass incomplete, PENALTY SAC personal foul (Hayes,Antonio) 15 yards to the SAC35, 1ST DOWN WASH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
95.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 10 yds to the SacSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+6
95.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 6 yds to the SacSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 9INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
96.0%
Daniel Kniffin pass intercepted Kevin King return for 5 yds to the SacSt 18 WASHINGTON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SacSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10TD7 plays · 26 yds · 2:5096% → 99%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
96.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 7 yds to the SacSt 19Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-10
96.4%
Washington, Dw. rush for 2 yards to the SAC17, out-of-bounds (Payne,Nicholas), PENALTY WASH holding (Hall, Marvin) 10 yards to the SAC29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 13
OPP 29
-7
96.3%
Jake Browning sacked by George Obinna for a loss of 7 yards to the SacSt 36Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 20
OPP 36
+19
96.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 19 yds to the SacSt 17Similar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.5%
Dwayne Washington run for 11 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 4:11
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+17
97.9%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Nnamdi Agude for 17 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 7
OPP 45
-5
97.8%
SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, delay of game (Smith Heath) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 12
50
+5
98.0%
Heath,Smith punt 26 yards to the WASH24, downed, PENALTY WASH offside defense (Mickens, Jaydon) 5 yards to the WASH45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
97.8%
Smith Heath punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12TD7 plays · 90 yds · 1:1699% → 100%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
98.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 13 yds to the Wash 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
98.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 15 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
98.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 8 yds to the Wash 46Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+30
98.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 30 yds to the SacSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
98.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 23 yds to the SacSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Dwayne Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 42 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
99.6%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Shane Harrison for 12 yds to the SacSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.6%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Shane Harrison for 5 yds to the SacSt 29Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+27
99.5%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Shane Harrison for 27 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16TD4 plays · 93 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
99.7%
Myles Gaskin run for no gain to the Wash 7 for a 1ST down SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Anthony Payne) to the Wash 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Jaydon Mickens, broken up by Nick CrouchSimilar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+78
99.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Marvin Hall for 78 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.7%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Isiah Hennie for 13 yds to the SacSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Daniel Kniffin pass incomplete to Shane Harrison, broken up by Darren GardenhireSimilar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
99.7%
Daniel Kniffin pass incomplete to Isiah Hennie, broken up by Brandon LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18TD5 plays · 70 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
99.8%
Browning, Jake pass incomplete to Perkins, Joshua (Scott-Anderson), PENALTY SAC holding (Jenkins,Ernest) 10 yards to the WASH40, 1ST DOWN WASH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+10
99.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Isaiah Renfro for 10 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
99.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 49 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:42
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+4
99.8%
Smith Heath punt for 46 yds , Chico McClatcher returns for 4 yds to the Wash 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20TD1 play · 78 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:39
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Daniel Kniffin pass incomplete to Jordan Robinson, broken up by Tevis BartlettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 23PUNT10 plays · 39 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
99.9%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Isiah Hennie for 7 yds to the SacSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Stone Sander for no gain to the SacSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.9%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Jeremiah Reddick for 4 yds to the SacSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+19
99.9%
Daniel Kniffin pass complete to Nnamdi Agude for 19 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24FUMBLE3 plays · -16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:26
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-10
99.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Malcolm Thomas for a loss of 10 yards to the Wash 4 K.J. Carta-Samuels fumbled, recovered by SacSt Terrance Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 25MISSED FG7 plays · -27 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-19
100.0%
Kolney Cassel run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 16 SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, personal foul (Lars Hanson) to the Wash 31Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 31
+48
100.0%
Brad Cornish 48 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Taniela Tupou Team return for no gain to the Wash 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 26DOWNS6 plays · 38 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 27PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-5
100.0%
SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, delay of game (Kolney Cassel) to the SacSt 26Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+7
100.0%
Kolney Cassel pass complete to Jeremiah Reddick for 7 yds to the SacSt 33Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+13
100.0%
Kolney Cassel pass complete to Justin Cox for 13 yds to the SacSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-6
100.0%
Kolney Cassel sacked by Connor O'Brien for a loss of 6 yards to the SacSt 42Similar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 14
OWN 42
+7
100.0%
Smith Heath punt for 43 yds , Chico McClatcher returns for 7 yds to the Wash 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 28END OF GAME1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:18
Dwayne Washington run for 11 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 7:24
Myles Gaskin run for 16 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
+1.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:59
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 13 yds to the Wash 23 for a 1ST down
+0.8