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ORST

Oregon State 7 at Michigan 35

MICH
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:26 · Blake O'Neill punt for 46 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37 OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the OrgSt 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+26.7Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:03: De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +6.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:57: Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 02:57 — ORST win probability +3.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 0:12: De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +5.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:25: Kenny Allen 29 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +3.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:18: De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Rudock pass to De'Veon Smith for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 8:20MICH 4th & 6 at ORST 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:38ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 34, up 4
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:54MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:44ORST 4th & 6 at MICH 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:26MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:04ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:03MICH 4th & 5 at ORST 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:12ORST 4th & 13 at MICH 49, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:25MICH 4th & 7 at ORST 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:36ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 48, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:14MICH 4th & 5 at ORST 47, up 13
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:24ORST 4th & 23 at ORST 2, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−3.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:21ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:50ORST 4th & 18 at ORST 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:24ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:01ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:03MICH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:12MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:18MICH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:19MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 1:3716% → 17%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
83.7%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 2 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+26
83.5%
Chris Brown run for 26 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
83.5%
Seth Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+21
83.4%
Victor Bolden run for 21 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
83.3%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 12 yds to the Mich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
83.2%
Seth Collins sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 21Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+21
82.7%
Seth Collins pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 21 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:2583% → 83%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
82.7%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+36
82.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-17
82.6%
Jake Rudock sacked by Rommel Mageo for a loss of 17 yards to the Mich 24 Jake Rudock fumbled, recovered by OrgStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0918% → 18%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
82.3%
Victor Bolden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
82.2%
Victor Bolden run for 5 yds to the Mich 37 Victor Bolden fumbled, recovered by Mich Joe Bolden , return for 18 yds to the Mich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:4882% → 81%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
82.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 22 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
82.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
82.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+6
81.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 6 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
81.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Graham Glasgow) to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+3
81.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Harris for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+6
81.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
80.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Drake HarrisSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
81.3%
Kenny Allen 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2819% → 20%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.0%
Chris Brown run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.8%
Chris Brown run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
80.7%
Seth Collins run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
80.5%
Nick Porebski punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brian Cole at the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3780% → 79%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
80.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Joe Kerridge for 3 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-10
80.0%
Rudock, Jake rush for 6 yards to the MICHIGAN41, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Poggi, Henry) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+4
79.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 4 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
79.1%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
78.9%
Blake O'Neill punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:5921% → 22%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
79.4%
Chris Brown run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+9
79.2%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 9 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
78.8%
Seth Collins sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+17
78.8%
Seth Collins run for 17 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
78.1%
Collins, Seth pass incomplete to Villamin, Jordan, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Peppers, Jabrill) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST.Similar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
78.0%
Chris Brown run for no gain to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
77.5%
Deltron Sands run for 4 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
77.4%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+5
77.9%
Seth Collins pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 5 yds to the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1378% → 77%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
78.3%
Joe Kerridge run for 3 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
78.0%
Drake Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
77.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+3
77.3%
Blake O'Neill punt for 46 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37 OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:5722% → 25%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
77.6%
Seth Collins run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+5
77.0%
Seth Collins run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
77.0%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 5 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
76.5%
Chris Brown run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+9
76.4%
Seth Collins pass complete to Caleb Smith for 9 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
75.4%
Chris Brown run for no gain to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
74.9%
Deltron Sands run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-1
74.5%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+3
75.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 43 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 3 yds to the Mich 47 OREGON ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Paul Lucas) to the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
14 plays · 33 yds · 6:5476% → 80%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
75.5%
Jake Rudock run for 7 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+1
76.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+9
75.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 9 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
75.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 4 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
75.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+10
74.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
75.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+8
73.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 8 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-21
73.7%
Rudock, Jake pass complete to Butt, Jake for 6 yards to the OREGONST22, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Chesson, Jehu) 21 yards to the OREGONST43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 20
OPP 43
+15
71.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 15 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+20
72.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 20 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-25
74.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11FUMBLE
14 plays · -17 yds · 2:4522% → 24%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
77.6%
Seth Collins pass complete to Victor Bolden for 16 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.8%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
77.1%
Victor Bolden run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
76.8%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor BoldenSimilar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+15
78.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Jeremy Clark) to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
74.2%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
74.2%
Seth Collins run for 8 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-1
73.9%
Seth Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-5
74.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 44Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 8
OPP 44
-5
75.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 13
OPP 49
-48
76.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 48 yards to the OrgSt 3 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Nick PorebskiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4079% → 85%
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.3%
Joe Kerridge run for no gain to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
85.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
15 plays · 78 yds · 5:1584% → 89%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
84.4%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 12 De'Veon Smith fumbled, forced by Titus Failauga, recovered by Mich Jake Butt , return for 2 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+10
84.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 10 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
84.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 9 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+22
85.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to A.J. Williams for 22 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
86.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ty Isaac for 9 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+5
86.1%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
86.6%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+19
86.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
86.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+3
86.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 2
OPP 6
-5
85.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Graham Glasgow) to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
85.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
89.3%
Kenny Allen 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3712% → 12%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
88.4%
Storm Woods run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.0%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Caleb SmithSimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
87.2%
Storm Woods run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-1
87.0%
Seth Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
87.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:0290% → 91%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
89.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+3
89.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
90.1%
Jake Rudock run for 5 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
90.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
91.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 14 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
92.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+4
92.1%
Jehu Chesson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
91.8%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
91.3%
Blake O'Neill punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:4511% → 9%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
89.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
89.6%
Victor Bolden run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-5
89.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Dustin Stanton) to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 14
OWN 11
-9
90.1%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 23
OWN 2
+5
91.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 42 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 2:0093% → 99%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
92.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-8
93.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 20 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (Drake Harris) to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 18
OPP 35
+21
94.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ian Bunting for 21 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
94.6%
Derrick Green run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
99.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Rudock pass to De'Veon Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:401% → 1%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
98.6%
Storm Woods run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
98.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
98.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Storm WoodsSimilar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
98.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 40 yds, downed at the Mich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20INT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1999% → 99%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+13
99.2%
Sione Houma run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
99.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
99.2%
Jake Rudock pass intercepted Rommel Mageo return for no gain to the OrgSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.7%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
98.7%
Seth Collins pass complete to Chris Brown for no gain to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-8
98.7%
Seth Collins sacked by Desmond Morgan for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 18
OWN 38
+6
98.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 41 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 6 yds to the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 7:1399% → 100%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.2%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+12
99.2%
Derrick Green run for 12 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.3%
Derrick Green run for 7 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
99.4%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 1
50
+6
99.3%
Ty Isaac run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.4%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
99.4%
Ty Isaac run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
99.5%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
99.5%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+12
99.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ian Bunting for 12 yds to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
99.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+7
99.6%
Sione Houma run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+12
99.6%
Ty Isaac run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.6%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Deltron Sands run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
99.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Daniel Rodriguez) to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Ross Taylor-Douglas run for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:03
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q2 0:12
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q4 14:18
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Rudock pass to De'Veon Smith for Two-Point Conversion)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com