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ORE

Oregon 28 at Michigan State 31

MSU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:23 · Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Byron Marshall
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense+4.4Pregame prior+6.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:11: Bralon Addison 81 Yd Punt Return (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +11.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:11: LJ Scott 6 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +18.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:20: Vernon Adams Jr. 2 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +19.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 10:51: LJ Scott 38 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:25: Byron Marshall 15 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +30.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 7:55ORE 4th & 20 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:28MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:07ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:36MSU 4th & 8 at ORE 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:54MSU 4th & 1 at ORE 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.4%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:59ORE 4th & 1 at MSU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−7.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:29MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 21, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:23ORE 4th & 11 at MSU 34, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:11MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 34, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:19MSU 4th & 6 at ORE 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:37ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:08MSU 4th & 10 at ORE 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−1.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−8.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:45ORE 4th & 7 at MSU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:36ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:53ORE 4th & 1 at MSU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−2.7
    28% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:14MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:13MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−10.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:59ORE 4th & 16 at MSU 43, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.5 ptsWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%−5.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%
    28% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−7.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 11:10ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:02MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:45MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:11ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:11MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:20ORE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:51MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:25ORE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:3537% → 39%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.7%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
62.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 19 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
62.6%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
62.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+10
62.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 10 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
62.4%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
62.3%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-5
62.3%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Matt Pierson) to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+11
62.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 11 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
62.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
62.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 12 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
62.1%
Royce Freeman run for 15 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
62.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 2 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.7%
Royce Freeman 2 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5761% → 63%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+62
61.1%
Madre London run for 62 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
61.6%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the Oregn 12Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
63.2%
Josiah Price 12 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:4938% → 38%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
61.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 11 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
61.8%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-11
61.6%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 11 yards to the MchSt 49 Royce Freeman fumbled, forced by Joel Heath, recovered by Oregn Matt HegartySimilar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 19
OPP 49
-1
62.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 20
50
0
62.4%
Ian Wheeler punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1762% → 62%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
62.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-2
61.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 55 yds , Bralon Addison returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1138% → 37%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
62.1%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
62.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 7
OWN 14
-4
62.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Chris Frey and Demetrius Cooper for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 10Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 11
OWN 10
0
62.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:2163% → 63%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
63.4%
Madre London run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+13
63.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 13 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
63.4%
Madre London run for 11 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
63.5%
Madre London run for no gain to the Oregn 13Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
63.5%
Madre London run for 6 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-4
63.3%
Damion Terry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 11Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
62.5%
Michael Geiger 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2739% → 39%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
61.1%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+30
61.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass intercepted Montae Nicholson return for 30 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1164% → 69%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
63.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
63.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+10
63.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 10 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
62.6%
Connor Cook run for 2 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
63.9%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
68.7%
Aaron Burbridge 17 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9DOWNS
13 plays · 82 yds · 3:3933% → 34%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
66.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+10
67.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 10 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
66.9%
Royce Freeman run for 17 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
66.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 12 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
65.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 25 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
64.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Evan Baylis for 16 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
64.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
64.7%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Johnny Mundt) to the MchSt 6Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
64.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 5 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.7%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.2%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 4:1268% → 68%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
67.6%
Connor Cook run for 2 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 3
-1
67.5%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 2Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+11
66.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 11 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
69.1%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+4
69.1%
R.J. Shelton run for 4 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+3
68.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 3 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
68.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 53 yds , Bralon Addison returns for no gain to the Oregn 21 OREGON Penalty, Illegal Block (TEAM) to the Oregn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11INT
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:0431% → 32%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
69.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
69.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 4 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+25
70.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 25 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
67.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass intercepted Rj Williamson return for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:2970% → 73%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
70.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 10 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
71.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 9 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
72.5%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
72.7%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
72.8%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Seisay) to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
73.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+25
72.9%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Ugo Amadi return for 25 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:1833% → 29%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
67.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Byron Marshall for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 9
50
+17
67.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 17 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
65.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Craig Evans and Lawrence Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+2
68.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 2 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
69.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
70.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
71.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4072% → 60%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.2%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+81
59.5%
Bralon Addison 81 Yd Punt Return (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5061% → 79%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
60.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Paul Lang for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
59.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 6 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
61.2%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
62.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
63.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 14 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
63.9%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+3
63.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 3 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
63.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+28
61.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 28 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
79.4%
LJ Scott 6 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2428% → 26%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
72.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
71.8%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
72.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for no gain to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
73.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:2177% → 83%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
77.3%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+8
77.6%
Madre London run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
78.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aj TroupSimilar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
77.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to DeAnthony ArnettSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+12
76.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 12 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
79.6%
OREGON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 5
50
+3
80.2%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+10
80.4%
Madre London run for 10 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
80.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 18 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
82.2%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-3
82.4%
Madre London run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 19Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
83.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
83.4%
Michael Geiger 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 3:4118% → 40%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
82.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 8 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+1
81.0%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
83.2%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
83.2%
Charles Nelson run for 4 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+9
82.6%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
82.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 21 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
80.2%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Cameron Hunt) to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+1
82.4%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 14
OPP 37
0
82.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+7
84.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 7 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+25
83.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Byron Marshall for 25 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
80.1%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. 2 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:1371% → 88%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
71.1%
R.J. Shelton run for 18 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
74.3%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+38
87.6%
LJ Scott 38 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 40 yds · 2:4313% → 13%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
87.5%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
87.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 7 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
86.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
86.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 8 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
86.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
87.1%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
88.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Evan Baylis for 1 yd to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
86.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 9 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
85.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
86.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
86.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1891% → 91%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
91.1%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+1
91.7%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
91.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
91.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 2:389% → 41%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
91.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
50
+15
88.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 5 yds to the MICHIGANST 45 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Rj Williamson) to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+21
87.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 21 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
86.9%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+8
87.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 8 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
87.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
87.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Matt Hegarty) to the MchSt 10Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
88.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Malik McDowell) to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
88.6%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Johnstone) to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
89.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
59.4%
Byron Marshall 15 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0179% → 81%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
78.6%
Madre London run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
82.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 15
OWN 17
0
81.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 15
OWN 17
+19
80.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 50 yds , Bralon Addison returns for 19 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:0234% → 24%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
66.3%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
64.5%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
60.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-10
67.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Chris Frey and Lawrence Thomas for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
76.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5492% → 96%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
92.1%
OREGON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 5
OWN 48
+3
92.4%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
94.3%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:25
Byron Marshall 15 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Aidan Schneider Kick)
-30
TD · Q4 12:20
Vernon Adams Jr. 2 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)
-19.9
TD · Q3 8:11
LJ Scott 6 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)
+18.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com