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VT

Virginia Tech 23 at Virginia 20

UVA
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:41 · A.J. Hughes punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior−6.2Home team on offense−3.0Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:59: Albert Reid run for 57 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +28.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:55: Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 3 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +23.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:04: Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 27 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +26.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:40: Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 32 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +24.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:38: Joey Slye 41 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +27.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 11:37VT 4th & 3 at UVA 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:40UVA 4th & 15 at VT 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:40VT 4th & 4 at VT 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49VT 4th & 12 at VT 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:41UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:33VT 4th & 15 at VT 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:24UVA 4th & 2 at VT 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.9%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−5.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:18VT 4th & 2 at VT 22, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:16UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 34, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.1%−2.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:57VT 4th & 4 at UVA 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−5.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 15 at UVA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:15VT 4th & 6 at VT 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:42VT 4th & 10 at UVA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:06UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:41VT 4th & 4 at UVA 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:46UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 26, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−2.8
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:22UVA 4th & 7 at VT 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−8.6
    average punt
  19. Q3 4:22VT 4th & 3 at VT 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:40UVA 4th & 9 at VT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−2.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:38VT 4th & 9 at UVA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−5.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−30.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q3 0:59UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:55VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:04UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:40VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:2366% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
34.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 6 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-1
34.1%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+16
34.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 16 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
34.1%
Sam Rogers run for 4 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-5
34.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+8
34.1%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
34.1%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+48
35.2%
Joey Slye 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FG
18 plays · 51 yds · 7:5735% → 38%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
35.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 12 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
35.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+4
35.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Evan Butts for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+14
35.4%
Matt Johns run for 14 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
35.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+1
35.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+4
35.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
36.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the VTech 35Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
36.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+14
35.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 14 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
36.0%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 6 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-10
36.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the VTech 23Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 14
OPP 23
0
35.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 14
OPP 23
-5
35.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive offside (Taquan Mizzell) to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 19
OPP 28
+4
35.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+42
38.0%
Ian Frye 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
38.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 12 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
37.7%
Michael Brewer sacked by Mike Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+7
38.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 7 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+6
38.5%
Michael Brewer run for 6 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
38.2%
A.J. Hughes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Olamide Zaccheaus at the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2140% → 39%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
39.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
39.3%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 6 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+1
38.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
38.9%
Nicholas Conte punt for 44 yds, downed at the VTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
38.6%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-9
38.6%
Michael Brewer sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 9 yards to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 17
OWN 26
0
39.8%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 17
OWN 26
+5
40.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 12
OWN 31
+9
40.1%
A.J. Hughes punt for 54 yds , Olamide Zaccheaus returns for 9 yds to the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:2841% → 41%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
40.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+15
40.7%
Johns, M pass incomplete to Mizzell, T, PENALTY VT pass interference (Clark, C) 15 yards to the VA29, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
41.0%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for no gain to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
40.7%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+5
39.9%
Matt Johns run for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
40.9%
Nicholas Conte punt for 34 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
39.8%
Travon McMillian run for 16 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
38.7%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
38.2%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-8
38.8%
Michael Brewer sacked by David Dean for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 43 Michael Brewer fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
41.3%
A.J. Hughes punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Olamide Zaccheaus at the Virg 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:5943% → 49%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
42.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 7Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+11
42.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 11 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
42.7%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+25
42.6%
Matt Johns run for 25 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
44.5%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 3
50
+2
45.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+15
44.6%
Matt Johns run for 15 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
45.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Adonis AlexanderSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
45.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 7 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+1
44.8%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
48.7%
Ian Frye 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
50.5%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 14Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+8
50.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 8 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 2
OWN 22
0
50.7%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
51.9%
A.J. Hughes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Olamide Zaccheaus at the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:4752% → 48%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
51.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 15
OWN 35
0
50.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-5
49.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+4
49.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 4 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
49.0%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 16
OWN 34
+14
48.4%
Nicholas Conte run for 14 yds to the Virg 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1253% → 59%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
47.5%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
48.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kelvin Rainey) to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
45.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 2 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+4
45.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 4 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
47.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky Hodges, broken up by Maurice CanadySimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+44
40.6%
Joey Slye 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
45.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.4%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
47.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
46.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
46.8%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for no gain to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
46.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 11 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
49.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
48.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Olamide Zaccheaus) to the Virg 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
47.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 41
0
45.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Albert ReidSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 41
+16
44.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 53 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 16 yds to the VTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
44.3%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
43.9%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
45.3%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
46.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Maurice Canady at the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
47.9%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Adonis Alexander return for no gain to the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
42.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 16 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
40.9%
Sam Rogers run for no gain to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
40.9%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam Phillips, broken up by Darious LatimoreSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
42.1%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Kelvin RaineySimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
44.7%
A.J. Hughes punt for 40 yds, downed at the Virg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+12
47.9%
Albert Reid run for 12 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
48.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
47.9%
Matt Johns run for 3 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
46.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
45.7%
Nicholas Conte punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
42.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
43.4%
Isaiah Ford run for 6 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
42.2%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
44.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
49.2%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 10Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 17
OWN 10
+1
48.8%
T.J. Thorpe run for 1 yd to the Virg 11Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+15
47.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 15 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
47.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 57 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
46.2%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted Tim Harris return for no gain to the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21MISSED FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5956% → 51%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
55.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Evan ButtsSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
55.6%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
53.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, broken up by Greg StromanSimilar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
50.7%
Ian Frye 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
44.4%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
44.1%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
44.0%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
45.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 49 yds, downed at the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:3750% → 78%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
49.7%
Albert Reid run for 7 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+7
50.2%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 7 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
50.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, broken up by Greg StromanSimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
49.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 13 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
78.1%
Albert Reid run for 57 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0430% → 61%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+71
69.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 71 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
62.3%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Virg 3Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 3 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 4:5151% → 84%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
50.7%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
50.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+21
48.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Evan Butts for 21 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
51.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
54.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Albert Reid for 5 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
54.2%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 1 yd to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
55.3%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Adonis AlexanderSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
53.7%
Albert Reid run for 11 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
56.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 13 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
57.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
57.7%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+27
84.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 27 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2423% → 54%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.2%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Kelvin RaineySimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
77.6%
Travon McMillian run for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+38
75.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 38 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
69.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
70.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+32
45.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 32 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
52.9%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
50
+4
58.7%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-5
59.0%
Johns, M pass incomplete, PENALTY VA illegal shift 5 yards to the VA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+2
56.1%
Daniel Hamm run for 2 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
55.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
52.0%
Nicholas Conte punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:0053% → 88%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
47.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 6 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+21
45.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 21 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
41.7%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
41.3%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
40.7%
Michael Brewer run for 2 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
41.1%
Travon McMillian run for 9 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+8
38.4%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
38.4%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+4
39.3%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-1
39.7%
Sam Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
12.3%
Joey Slye 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 29INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
28.5%
Matt Johns sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 23 Matt Johns fumbled, recovered by Virg Jack English , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+12
27.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 12 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
29.5%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Chuck Clark return for no gain to the VTech 35 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the VTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
9.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 20Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 12
OWN 20
-2
10.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:59
Albert Reid run for 57 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
+28.5
FG · Q4 1:38
Joey Slye 41 yd FG GOOD
-27.4
TD · Q4 10:04
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 27 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
+26.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com