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DUKE

Duke 27 at Wake Forest 21

WAKE
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:30 · Will Monday punt for 26 yds, downed at the WFrst 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Home team on offense−25.8Score differential−12.2Pregame prior−4.0Garbage-time factor−6.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:06: Tyler Bell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +5.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:48: Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +6.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:39: Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 28 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +12.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:20: John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 10 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +7.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:46: John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 22 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +25.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 11:31DUKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:31WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:14DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:48WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:50DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:53WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00DUKE 4th & 16 at WAKE 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:52WAKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−6.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:30DUKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−3.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:30DUKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 36, up 17
    Close callPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:23WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 37, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:20DUKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:33DUKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 17, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%−0.9
    80% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−5.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:07DUKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 43, up 6
    Close callPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    90.6%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:24DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:06WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:48DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:39DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:20WAKE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:46WAKE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:2961% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
39.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 7 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
39.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
39.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
39.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+30
39.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 30 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
39.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+2
39.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
39.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
40.3%
Ross Martin 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
40.6%
Tyler Bell run for 9 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+5
40.8%
Tyler Bell run for 5 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.6%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
40.6%
John Wolford run for 3 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+3
40.5%
John Wolford run for 3 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+9
40.5%
Alexander Kinal punt for 44 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 9 yds to the Duke 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
41.2%
Parker Boehme pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
41.1%
Parker Boehme run for 3 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
41.1%
Parker Boehme run for 1 yd to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
41.4%
Will Monday punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
41.7%
Tyler Bell run for 4 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
41.8%
Tyler Bell run for 1 yd to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+5
41.5%
John Wolford run for 5 yds to the WFrst 36 John Wolford fumbled, forced by Dwayne Norman, recovered by Duke Deondre SingletonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:4559% → 63%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
41.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
41.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jela Duncan for 2 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+9
41.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 9 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
40.8%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the WFrst 24Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+10
40.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 10 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
40.8%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 19Similar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+1
40.9%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the WFrst 18Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 14
OPP 18
+18
37.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 18 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1839% → 46%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
38.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 49 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
40.6%
John Wolford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-2
40.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+25
39.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 25 yds to the Duke 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
40.6%
Tyler Bell run for 2 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
40.6%
Tyler Bell run for 2 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q1 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.8%
Tyler Bell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:1857% → 65%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
42.5%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
42.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 9 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
41.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
42.0%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+9
42.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 9 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
41.8%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+3
42.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+9
42.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
41.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+9
41.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Erich Schneider for 9 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
41.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 7 yds to the WFrst 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+9
41.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 9 yds to the WFrst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.0%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.3%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Isaiah Robinson for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
37.1%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
36.7%
Alexander Kinal punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
37.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 12 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
36.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Brad WatsonSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
36.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 11 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
35.4%
Sirk, T crossing pass incomplete, PENALTY WF pass interference (Dancel, Z) 6 yards to the DU47, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
35.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
35.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, broken up by Brad WatsonSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
35.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
37.1%
Will Monday punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
35.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 17 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
36.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Tyler Bell for 5 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+2
37.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 2 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
37.2%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
35.9%
Alexander Kinal punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:1365% → 69%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
35.2%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+7
34.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 7 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
34.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Brad WatsonSimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
35.1%
T.J. Rahming run for 1 yd to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+10
35.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 10 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
33.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-1
33.4%
Thomas Sirk run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+15
33.7%
Sirk, T deep pass incomplete to Rahming, T.J., PENALTY WF pass interference (Glenn, C) 15 yards to the WF40, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
33.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 13 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
32.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
32.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 9
OPP 26
-7
33.4%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Josh Okonye for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 33
+51
31.1%
Ross Martin 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:0830% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
29.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 27 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
31.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 20 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
33.0%
Wolford, J post pass incomplete to Serigne, C, PENALTY DU pass interference (Norman, D) 15 yards to the DU13, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
33.0%
Tyler Bell run for 3 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
33.0%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam Serigne, broken up by Phillip CarterSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
31.7%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cortez Lewis, broken up by DeVon EdwardsSimilar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+28
28.9%
Mike Weaver 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1371% → 85%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
28.9%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+15
28.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jela Duncan for 15 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
27.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 17 yds to the WFrst 40 Thomas Sirk fumbled, forced by Zach Dancel, recovered by Duke Jela Duncan for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
27.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 4 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+8
27.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 8 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
14.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 28 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14INT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0018% → 20%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
17.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Steve Donatell for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
18.6%
Tyler Bell run for 4 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
18.9%
John Wolford run for 13 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
19.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Tyler Bell for 5 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
20.1%
Tyler Bell run for 4 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
20.0%
Tyler Bell run for 1 yd to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
19.8%
John Wolford pass intercepted Allen Jackson return for no gain to the Duke 39 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
13.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
13.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 10 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
13.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
13.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to David Reeves, broken up by Jaboree WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
13.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 4 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
14.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
13.5%
Anthony Nash pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Dionte AustinSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
13.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the WFrst 36Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
13.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, broken up by Brad WatsonSimilar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
14.6%
Will Monday punt for 26 yds, downed at the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
13.9%
John Wolford pass incomplete to K.J. BrentSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+18
13.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 18 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
14.2%
John Wolford sacked by Carlos Wray for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 18Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+13
13.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Isaiah Robinson for 13 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+6
14.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 6 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+30
14.8%
Alexander Kinal punt for 53 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 30 yds to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4391% → 91%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
8.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+13
8.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 13 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
8.5%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the WFrst 41Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+1
8.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 1 yd to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
7.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 40
-5
8.7%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Thomas Hennessy) to the WFrst 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
8.7%
Will Monday punt for 36 yds, downed at the WFrst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 3:2210% → 21%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
10.2%
John Wolford pass incomplete to K.J. BrentSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+20
10.1%
Tyler Bell run for 20 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
10.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 13 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
11.8%
Tyler Bell run for 4 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-10
12.0%
Wolford, J sideline pass incomplete, QB hurry by Wolf, A.J., PENALTY WF holding (Herron, J) 10 yards to the WF36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+7
10.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tyler Bell for 7 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+19
11.4%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 19 yds to the WAKEFOREST 38 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
12.5%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Breon Borders) to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
13.8%
Tyler Bell run for 19 yds to the Duke 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
13.8%
Tyler Bell run for no gain to the Duke 10Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
13.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to K.J. BrentSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
21.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 10 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
19.0%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+12
18.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 12 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
17.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, broken up by Brad WatsonSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
17.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+10
18.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 10 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
17.1%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 8
50
+6
16.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-5
17.3%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Brandon Chubb and Tylor Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 49Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
19.2%
Will Monday punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20INT
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:0014% → 17%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
14.1%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 14 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
14.7%
John Wolford run for 3 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+15
15.0%
Tyler Bell run for 15 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
16.7%
John Wolford pass intercepted Breon Borders return for no gain to the Duke 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:3987% → 97%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
13.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
11.7%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 7
50
+13
11.5%
Jela Duncan run for 13 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
11.5%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
11.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
11.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
11.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
11.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+3
5.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+35
3.2%
Ross Martin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:474% → 30%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.1%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cortez Lewis, broken up by DeVon EdwardsSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
4.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 29 yds Cam Serigne fumbled, forced by Zavier Carmichael, recovered by WFrst Cam Serigne for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
4.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 7 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+17
5.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 17 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
30.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 22 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 1:3994% → 95%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
6.3%
Shaquille Powell run for no gain to the WFrst 45Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
4.8%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+1
4.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 8
OPP 43
+4
5.5%
Will Monday punt for 42 yds , Tabari Hines returns for 4 yds to the WFrst 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:46
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 22 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+25.2
TD · Q3 10:39
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 28 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q4 11:20
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 10 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com