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MIA

Miami 29 at Pittsburgh 24

PITT
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2015 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:38 · Ryan Winslow punt for 40 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Home team on offense−24.5Pregame prior+3.9Score differential−12.0Garbage-time factor−9.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:34: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +8.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Michael Badgley 23 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +7.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:52: Darrin Hall run for 35 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +14.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:34: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 2 yds for a TD, (N. Peterman Run For Two-point Conversion) — PITT win probability +15.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:34: Nathan Peterman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — PITT win probability +21.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 8:48MIA 4th & 1 at PITT 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:57MIA 4th & 3 at PITT 16, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:16PITT 4th & 12 at MIA 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:36MIA 4th & 4 at PITT 39, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    50.7%−1.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:50PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 2, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−2.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:49MIA 4th & 9 at PITT 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:02PITT 4th & 7 at MIA 7, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:00MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.7%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00PITT 4th & 3 at MIA 48, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00PITT 4th & 11 at MIA 43, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:17MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−2.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:38MIA 4th & 6 at PITT 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−9.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:38PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 36, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:51MIA 4th & 6 at PITT 12, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−3.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:26MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:22PITT 4th & 7 at MIA 29, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.5%−1.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−3.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:11MIA 4th & 20 at MIA 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:11MIA 4th & 2 at PITT 40, up 5
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.5
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:48MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:34MIA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:52PITT Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:34PITT Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:34PITT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1233% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
67.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
67.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-5
67.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Rashawn Scott) to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+15
67.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 15 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+10
67.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
67.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
67.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+7
67.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 7 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
67.2%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+35
67.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 35 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
67.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.2%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.2%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.8%
Brad Kaaya run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
64.3%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted Artie Burns return for 19 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0337% → 38%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
63.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
63.1%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Pitt 18Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
63.0%
Trayone Gray run for 2 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
63.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
62.5%
Michael Badgley 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:4163% → 60%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.1%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete, broken up by Rayshawn JenkinsSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
62.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Zach Challingsworth for 12 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
63.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+15
63.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Rayshawn Jenkins) to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
63.8%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+8
63.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
64.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Darrin HallSimilar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-2
64.1%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Al-Quadin Muhammad for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 12
OPP 30
0
63.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Darrin HallSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+48
59.9%
Chris Blewitt 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:4240% → 48%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+48
60.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 48 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
51.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:3453% → 50%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
53.2%
Qadree Ollison rush for 18 yards to the UP37, out-of-bounds (Dallas Crawford), PENALTY UP illegal formation 5 yards to the UP14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+6
53.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 6 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-8
53.2%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Corn Elder for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 12Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+10
53.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 10 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+4
49.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 27 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 4 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1452% → 54%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
47.7%
Braxton Berrios run for no gain to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
47.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
45.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for no gain to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
45.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds, downed at the Pitt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
47.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 2Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
47.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler Boyd, broken up by Rayshawn JenkinsSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
47.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+3
47.0%
Ryan Winslow punt for 50 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 3 yds to the MiaFl 5 MIAMI FL Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the MiaFl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:0458% → 65%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
42.0%
Mark Walton run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 1
50
+3
41.7%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
41.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 15 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
41.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
41.8%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
42.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+48
35.5%
Michael Badgley 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:4739% → 41%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.7%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+30
39.3%
Tyler Boyd run for 30 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
40.5%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+1
41.0%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+9
40.7%
Darrin Hall run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
41.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, personal foul (Al-Quadin Muhammad) to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
41.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
41.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jordan Whitehead for no gain to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.7%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to J.P. HoltzSimilar
Q2 5:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
41.1%
Chris Blewitt 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FG
22 plays · 72 yds · 5:0265% → 82%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
35.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 8 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+1
34.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
33.6%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+1
34.3%
Brad Kaaya run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
33.3%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
33.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+8
33.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 8 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
29.2%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+22
29.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 22 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
28.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 3 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
28.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+7
28.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 7 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
28.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 6 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
28.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb Waters, broken up by Jordan WhiteheadSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+15
28.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn Scott, PENALTY UP pass interference (Avonte Maddox) 15 yards to the UP6, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
25.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb Waters, broken up by Jordan WhiteheadSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
25.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
17.6%
Michael Badgley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
15 plays · 49 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
26.4%
Tyler Boyd run for 5 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+3
26.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+14
26.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 14 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
27.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 15 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
28.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
28.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 5 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
29.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete, broken up by Tracy HowardSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+6
28.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 6 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
29.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
29.4%
Darrin Hall run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
29.7%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 33
-5
29.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 38
-5
28.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
27.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
15.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
15.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 8 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
13.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
13.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-2
13.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
14.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn Scott, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
14.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:5914% → 30%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
14.1%
Darrin Hall run for 9 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
14.9%
Darrin Hall run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
14.7%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
15.3%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+35
29.7%
Darrin Hall run for 35 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 5:1480% → 88%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
20.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 20 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
19.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+8
19.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 8 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+6
19.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
18.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 9 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+1
18.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
15.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
15.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+3
15.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
11.7%
Michael Badgley 45 yd FG GOOD PITTSBURGH Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
15.0%
Tyler Boyd run for 12 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
16.0%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-1
16.9%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Tyriq McCord for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 41 Nathan Peterman fumbled, recovered by Pitt Nathan Peterman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
16.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 6
OWN 41
-5
16.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+40
14.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 40 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:4991% → 97%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
8.7%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+17
8.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 17 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-12
8.3%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 41 MIAMI FL Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 22
OWN 26
+15
8.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb Waters (Nicholas Grigsby), PENALTY UP pass interference (Nicholas Grigsby) 15 yards to the UM41, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
8.2%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+41
8.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 41 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
7.8%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
7.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 4 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 3
OPP 9
-3
8.1%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 12Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
2.7%
Michael Badgley 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q4 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 2 yds for a TD, (N. Peterman Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0889% → 89%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David Njoku, broken up by Jordan WhiteheadSimilar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
10.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
10.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:5312% → 10%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
11.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler Boyd, broken up by Corn ElderSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
11.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 12 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
12.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Elijah Zeise for 17 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
15.2%
Nathan Peterman run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 31 PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal forward pass (Nathan Peterman) to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 14
OPP 36
0
11.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Qadree Ollison, broken up by Jermaine GraceSimilar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+7
11.1%
Nathan Peterman run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
10.2%
Chris Blewitt 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21PUNT
8 plays · -10 yds · 0:1192% → 92%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
8.1%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-5
7.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Stacy Coley) to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-6
7.6%
Brad Kaaya run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 18
OWN 21
-2
8.1%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 20
OWN 19
+25
7.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 47 yds , Avonte Maddox returns for 25 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 0:395% → 28%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+36
4.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 36 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
6.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q4 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
6.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q4 2:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
27.8%
Nathan Peterman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:2390% → 95%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
10.0%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
10.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+5
10.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (Tyrique Jarrett) to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+1
10.5%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
5.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
9.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 10 yds to the Pitt 33 lat. to Jester Weah for 2 yds to the Pitt 33 lat. to Nathan Peterman for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 33 lat. to Dontez Ford for no gain to the Pitt 33 lat. to Dontez Ford for no gain Dontez Ford fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Chad ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:34
Nathan Peterman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+21.7
TD · Q4 6:34
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 2 yds for a TD, (N. Peterman Run For Two-point Conversion)
+15.7
TD · Q3 3:52
Darrin Hall run for 35 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com