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UNC

North Carolina 30 at Virginia Tech 27

VT
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:30 · A.J. Hughes punt for 36 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 35 Ryan Switzer fumbled, recovered by NCaro M.J. Stewart
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−18.9Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:44: Michael Brewer 3 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +18.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:32: Elijah Hood 13 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick) — UNC win probability +23.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:54: Bucky Hodges 8 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +18.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:07: Isaiah Ford 4 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +36.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Quinshad Davis 5 Yd pass from Marquise Williams — UNC win probability +57.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 10UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 13:30VT 4th & 3 at VT 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:04VT 4th & 6 at VT 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:13UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 20, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:05VT 4th & 4 at UNC 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15UNC 4th & 11 at VT 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:50VT 4th & 4 at UNC 15, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−5.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:55VT 4th & 23 at UNC 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:23UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 29, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:39VT 4th & 6 at VT 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:43UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 45, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:13VT 4th & 11 at VT 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−2.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:02UNC 4th & 1 at midfield, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:48VT 4th & 11 at VT 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:16UNC 4th & 3 at VT 3, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−12.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:22UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−2.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:51UNC 4th & 2 at VT 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−2.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−4.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:54VT 4th & 7 at UNC 8, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−2.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:07VT 4th & 2 at UNC 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−6.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−10.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:26UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−3.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:19UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:44VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:32UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:56UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:54VT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−1.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:07VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−4.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2531% → 31%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
30.8%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
31.0%
Michael Brewer run for 4 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
31.3%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+1
31.3%
A.J. Hughes punt for 36 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 35 Ryan Switzer fumbled, recovered by NCaro M.J. StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:5669% → 69%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
31.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
31.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Lucas Crowley) to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
31.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+32
31.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 32 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
31.7%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+11
31.7%
T.J. Logan run for 11 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
31.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
30.8%
Marquise Williams 18 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:0031% → 32%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
31.2%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
31.3%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
31.3%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
31.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 7 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
31.8%
Michael Brewer run for 2 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
31.8%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
31.7%
Michael Brewer sacked by Shakeel Rashad for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+11
31.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 11 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
31.9%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Ryan MalleckSimilar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
31.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 39 yds, downed at the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4769% → 68%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
31.3%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
31.4%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-5
31.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Lucas Crowley) to the NCaro 11Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 11
OWN 11
+9
31.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 9 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 2
OWN 20
-3
31.9%
Joey Mangili punt for 48 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:5832% → 32%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
31.7%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+8
31.8%
J.C. Coleman run for 8 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
32.4%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
32.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 8 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
33.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 14 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
33.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 7 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
33.0%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-3
32.5%
Michael Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
31.7%
Joey Slye 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:4069% → 69%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
30.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 24 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
29.7%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-5
29.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro Marquise WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
31.1%
Joey Mangili punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1631% → 36%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
31.0%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
31.0%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
30.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+44
31.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 44 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
33.9%
Sam Rogers run for 8 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 2
OPP 13
-2
34.0%
Sam Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
33.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
35.6%
Joey Slye 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4365% → 67%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
34.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 20 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
33.3%
Marquise Williams sacked by Corey Marshall for a loss of 15 yards to the NCaro 30 Marquise Williams fumbled, forced by Corey Marshall, recovered by VTech Andrew Motuapuaka , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:5938% → 33%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
37.5%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
37.5%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-10
36.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Augie Conte) to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 15
OPP 35
-8
35.2%
Michael Brewer sacked by Tyler Powell and Junior Gnonkonde for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 23
OPP 43
0
32.9%
A.J. Hughes punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2266% → 65%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
34.0%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
33.4%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
34.4%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
34.9%
Joey Mangili punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3934% → 34%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
34.4%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
35.8%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
35.9%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-5
34.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 6
OWN 36
-2
33.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 39 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4466% → 67%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
34.5%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+3
34.2%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+7
34.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 7 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
32.6%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
33.1%
Marquise Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
31.8%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
33.1%
Joey Mangili punt for 46 yds, downed at the VTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:2533% → 32%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
33.1%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
32.9%
Sam Rogers run for 3 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 7
OWN 12
-4
32.7%
Michael Brewer sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 8Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 11
OWN 8
-4
31.7%
A.J. Hughes punt for 47 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:0568% → 68%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
31.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
32.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
33.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+14
35.3%
Marquise Williams run for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 1
50
+27
32.5%
Joey Mangili punt for 36 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 27 yds to the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
35.4%
Michael Brewer sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3765% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
35.1%
Elijah Hood run for 12 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
34.3%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
33.9%
Ryan Switzer run for 1 yd to the NCaro 39Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
34.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
36.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1639% → 35%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
39.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+10
36.6%
Travon McMillian run for 10 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
37.8%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-1
36.9%
Michael Brewer sacked by Mikey Bart and Justin Thomason for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 39Similar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+1
35.4%
TEAM punt blocked by Bug Howard, recovered at the VTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:1467% → 73%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
33.2%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+4
34.5%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+5
34.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+14
33.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (14 Yards) to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
32.0%
Marquise Williams run for 19 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.1%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the VTech 1Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
32.1%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 3Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
33.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q3 8:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
27.3%
Nick Weiler 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:1730% → 53%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
29.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 5 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+8
30.0%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
30.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 15 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
32.6%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
32.3%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+10
31.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 10 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
33.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
35.3%
Sam Rogers run for 18 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
34.8%
Sam Rogers run for 4 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
34.8%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the NCaro 3Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.2%
Michael Brewer 3 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2255% → 51%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
45.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
44.4%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
47.0%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
48.7%
Joey Mangili punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0850% → 53%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
50.3%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+9
53.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 9 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
54.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+10
50.8%
Sam Rogers run for 10 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
53.1%
Sam Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 45 Sam Rogers fumbled, forced by Nazair Jones, recovered by NCaro Nazair JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:2858% → 81%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
41.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
40.7%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
40.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+21
42.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 21 yds to the VTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
19.0%
Elijah Hood 13 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:4026% → 27%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
26.1%
Travon McMillian run for 9 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
28.7%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
27.0%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted Des Lawrence return for no gain to the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 4:1977% → 95%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
22.7%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 18 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by NCaro Marquise WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+32
22.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
50
-5
19.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+7
20.7%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+9
18.8%
Marquise Williams run for 9 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
18.7%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
16.7%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+1
16.3%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+4
18.8%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the VTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
15.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
15.7%
Marquise Williams run for 13 yds to the VTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
15.4%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the VTech 7Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
5.4%
Elijah Hood 7 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 1:587% → 7%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
6.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 8 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
6.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 12 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
7.0%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
6.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 8 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+2
7.3%
Michael Brewer run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
6.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
6.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 6 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+10
6.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
7.4%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted M.J. Stewart return for no gain to the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:0495% → 97%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+31
4.9%
Elijah Hood run for 31 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
4.3%
T.J. Logan run for 8 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+10
3.8%
Elijah Hood run for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
3.5%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 37 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by VTech Woody BaronSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:203% → 22%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
3.4%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+25
3.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 25 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
3.7%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+26
3.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 26 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
4.2%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
4.0%
Michael Brewer run for 3 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
3.8%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+8
22.1%
Bucky Hodges 8 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28FUMBLE
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
10.4%
T.J. Logan run for 21 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:0519% → 59%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+36
19.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 36 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
25.6%
Sam Rogers run for 3 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
25.1%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
21.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
58.5%
Isaiah Ford 4 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:3452% → 48%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
47.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 16 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
42.9%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
44.3%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+3
50.1%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
51.6%
Joey Mangili punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
57.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 32FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
64.7%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-2
64.7%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
62.2%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
79.0%
Joey Slye 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 33TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
70.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 18 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
70.9%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the VTech 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
70.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
70.9%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 5Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
12.3%
Quinshad Davis 5 Yd pass from Marquise Williams Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Quinshad Davis 5 Yd pass from Marquise Williams
-57.5
TD · Q4 1:07
Isaiah Ford 4 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)
+36.9
TD · Q4 13:32
Elijah Hood 13 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)
-23.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com