Try the model
LOU

Louisville 34 at Pittsburgh 45

PITT
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Acrisure Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:25 · Joshua Appleby punt for 30 yds, downed at the Pitt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Home team on offense+13.7Garbage-time factor+1.1Score differential+3.9Pregame prior+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1Blowout margin+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:48: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 32 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +8.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:02: Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +8.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:30: Kyle Bolin pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 18 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +9.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:55: Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +5.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:55: Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +12.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:50PITT 4th & 23 at PITT 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:52LOU 4th & 12 at PITT 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:04PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:42LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:04LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 33, down 11
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:41LOU 4th & 7 at PITT 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−7.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:41PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 26, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:43LOU 4th & 18 at LOU 40, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:09PITT 4th & 8 at LOU 44, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    84.7%−1.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:09LOU 4th & 19 at LOU 25, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−2.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:47PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 15, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:55PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−2.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:25LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−2.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:25PITT 4th & 1 at LOU 1, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−8.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:20LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 4:16PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:04LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:42PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:48PITT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:02PITT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:30LOU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:55PITT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:35PITT Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:03LOU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:55LOU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
55.2%
Kyle Bolin run for 7 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
55.2%
Joshua Appleby punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Avonte Maddox at the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
55.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 5 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
55.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
55.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 12
OWN 28
-9
55.3%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 17 Nathan Peterman fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 23
OWN 17
+18
55.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 36 , Jaire Alexander returns for 18 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:4045% → 45%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
55.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 15
OPP 41
0
55.3%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+9
55.3%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 9 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+19
55.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 19 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
55.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 12
OPP 15
0
55.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
55.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
55.2%
John Wallace 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 4:3655% → 59%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
54.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 15 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
55.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 26 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
55.7%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+7
55.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 7 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+24
55.6%
Tyler Boyd run for 24 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
56.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Lvile 12Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+10
56.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jordan Whitehead for 10 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
56.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Lvile 1Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:1243% → 47%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
56.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+22
56.6%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 22 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
56.0%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jamari Staples, broken up by Rori BlairSimilar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
53.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 29 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0054% → 55%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
54.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler Boyd, broken up by Keith BrownSimilar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
54.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense (DeAngelo Brown) to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
54.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+10
54.7%
Tyler Boyd run for 10 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
55.5%
Jordan Whitehead run for 5 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
55.7%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
55.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
54.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:1246% → 45%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
54.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
54.3%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+3
54.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 3 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
54.8%
Joshua Appleby punt for 19 yds, downed at the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
59.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 35 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.1%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-9
58.8%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Nicholas Grigsby for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 19 Kyle Bolin fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
59.4%
Joshua Appleby punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Avonte Maddox at the Pitt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:2560% → 69%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
59.7%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+8
59.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
60.0%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
60.0%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
59.7%
Nathan Peterman run for 4 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
60.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
60.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 1 yd to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+32
68.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 32 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4433% → 33%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.1%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to James Quick for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
66.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 3 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
67.0%
Joshua Appleby punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Avonte Maddox at the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:3168% → 79%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
68.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
68.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+21
68.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Zach Challingsworth for 21 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
69.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
69.8%
Jordan Whitehead run for 9 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
69.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+23
69.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 23 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3222% → 31%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
77.0%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+57
78.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 57 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
68.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 18 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:3572% → 83%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
72.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 12 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
73.1%
Nathan Peterman run for 11 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
73.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 16 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
74.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 16 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
74.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+16
74.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Elijah Zeise for 16 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15INT TD
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:2018% → 18%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
81.8%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+30
81.6%
Kyle Bolin pass intercepted for a TD Avonte Maddox return for 30 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:3216% → 19%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.9%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted by Jordan Whitehead at the 50 yardline, Jordan Whitehead return to the UL41 (Lukayus McNeil), PENALTY UP pass interference (Reggie Mitchell) 15 yards to the UL40, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
82.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 11 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
80.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 49 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
82.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Qadree OllisonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
82.5%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+46
81.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the PITTSBURGH 31 LOUISVILLE Penalty, delay of game (Jaire Alexander) to the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:5616% → 20%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+39
84.2%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 39 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
81.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+3
81.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
81.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 2
OPP 15
-5
81.2%
Brandon Radcliff rush for 7 yards to the UP8 (Nicholas Grigsby), PENALTY UL illegal formation 5 yards to the UP20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
81.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
82.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
80.5%
John Wallace 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
82.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez Ford, broken up by Shaq WigginsSimilar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
82.1%
Ryan Winslow punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-16
80.7%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 16 yards to the Lvile 32 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 26
OWN 32
-4
82.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 30
OWN 28
+12
82.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
82.9%
Joshua Appleby punt for 54 yds, downed at the Pitt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 50 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
85.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+5
85.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
85.7%
Tyler Boyd run for 13 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
85.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
85.7%
Nathan Peterman run for 9 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
86.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
86.5%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
86.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
86.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jordan WhiteheadSimilar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
86.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
85.2%
Ryan Winslow punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
87.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Skylar Lacy) to the Lvile 15Similar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+9
87.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 9 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
86.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
86.3%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 27Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 17
OWN 27
-2
87.5%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Tyrique Jarrett and Ejuan Price for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 19
OWN 25
0
87.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 19
OWN 25
-8
87.9%
Joshua Appleby punt for 47 yds , Avonte Maddox returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 17 PITTSBURGH Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Avonte Maddox) to the Pitt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
91.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+3
91.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 3 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
91.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott Orndoff, broken up by Keith KelseySimilar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+4
90.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 50 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:1310% → 23%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
89.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 24 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
89.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+16
90.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 16 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
89.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devonte Peete for 5 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+29
89.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 15 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, personal foul (Avonte Maddox) to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
88.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
88.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Geron Christian) to the Pitt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+2
88.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+14
89.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 14 yds to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
84.7%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
83.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Qadree Ollison, broken up by Trevon YoungSimilar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+44
83.2%
Ryan Winslow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the PITTSBURGH 35 LOUISVILLE Penalty, delay of game (Jaire Alexander) to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
82.6%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Khaynin Mosley-Smith and Ejuan Price for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 24 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile Keith Towbridge , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+7
83.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
84.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Devonte Peete, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
84.8%
Joshua Appleby punt for 30 yds, downed at the Pitt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:2988% → 94%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
87.7%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
87.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 7 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+35
87.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 35 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
88.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 5 yds to the Lvile 12Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+7
88.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 7 yds to the Lvile 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
88.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Lvile 2Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.7%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
93.9%
Chris Blewitt 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:057% → 7%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 15 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole Hikutini, broken up by Matt GalambosSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
92.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 7 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
92.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick, broken up by Terrish WebbSimilar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
92.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 30END OF GAME
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:4695% → 97%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
94.8%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+3
94.7%
Tyler Boyd run for 3 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+14
96.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 14 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
96.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+10
96.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 10 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
96.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Lvile 17Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
96.6%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:55
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q2 2:30
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 18 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q2 5:02
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com