Try the model
UTC

Chattanooga 13 at Florida State 52

FSU
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadUTC aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreUTC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:23 · Henrique Ribeiro punt for 46 yds , Nyqwan Murray returns for 8 yds to the FlaSt 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Pregame prior+28.8Home team on offense+29.4Score differential+23.1Blowout margin+12.6Garbage-time factor+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:12: Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:24: Dalvin Cook run for 13 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 3:29: Roberto Aguayo 18 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:35: Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 26 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:14: Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 13 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UTC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:39UTC 4th & 7 at FSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:41FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:16UTC 4th & 7 at UTC 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:45UTC 4th & 5 at FSU 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:36UTC 4th & 21 at UTC 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:29FSU 4th & 1 at UTC 1, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:03UTC 4th & 8 at UTC 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:23UTC 4th & 18 at UTC 28, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:04UTC 4th & 5 at UTC 42, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:24FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 44, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UTC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:12FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:24FSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:35FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:14FSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:45FSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:01FSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:11UTC Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:34FSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTCDrive 2FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 5:132% → 3%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
97.6%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Derrick Craine for 1 yd to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-3
97.5%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to C.J. Board for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+22
97.4%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Derrick Craine for 22 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
97.2%
Jacob Huesman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+10
97.2%
Alejandro Bennifield pass complete to James Stovall for 10 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
97.1%
CHATTANOOGA Penalty, false start (Brandon Morgan) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+7
97.0%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to C.J. Board for 7 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
96.9%
Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to C.J. BoardSimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+1
96.9%
Derrick Craine run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
96.8%
Henrique Ribeiro 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4597% → 97%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
96.8%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
96.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
96.6%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Jesus Wilson, broken up by Justin KingSimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
96.6%
Cason Beatty punt for 52 yds, fair catch by C.J. Board at the Chatt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:564% → 4%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
96.5%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Alejandro Bennifield for 4 yds to the Chatt 11Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+4
96.4%
Jacob Huesman run for 4 yds to the Chatt 15Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 2
OWN 15
0
96.3%
Derrick Craine run for no gain to the Chatt 15Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 2
OWN 15
-5
96.2%
CHATTANOOGA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Chatt 10Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
96.2%
Alejandro Bennifield punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the Chatt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:5696% → 96%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.2%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
96.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 8 yds to the Chatt 38Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+10
96.0%
Sean Maguire thrown away pass incomplete, QB hurry by Justin King, PENALTY UTC holding (Isaiah Mack) 10 yards to the UTC28, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 05:29.Similar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
96.0%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the Chatt 31Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 13
OPP 31
-10
95.9%
Jacques Patrick rush left for 9 yards to the UTC22, out-of-bounds, PENALTY FS holding (Ryan Izzo) 10 yards to the UTC41, NO PLAY, clock 04:52.Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 23
OPP 41
+12
95.7%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 12 yds to the Chatt 29Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-5
95.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Roderick Johnson) to the Chatt 34Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+33
95.4%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 33 yds to the Chatt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 6FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 5:074% → 6%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.8%
Richardre Bagley run for 9 yds to the Chatt 34Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
95.5%
Jacob Huesman run for 10 yds to the Chatt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
95.2%
Richardre Bagley run for 1 yd to the Chatt 45Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+2
95.1%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Richardre Bagley for 2 yds to the Chatt 47Similar
Q1 0:09
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+25
94.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to C.J. Board for 25 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.6%
Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Alejandro Bennifield, broken up by Ro'Derrick HoskinsSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
94.6%
Richardre Bagley run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+9
94.5%
Derrick Craine run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
94.1%
Alex Trotter run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
94.0%
Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Xavier BorishadeSimilar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
94.1%
Jacob Huesman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
94.1%
Henrique Ribeiro 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1594% → 95%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.2%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 15 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
94.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 15 yds to the Chatt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
94.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the Chatt 39Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+13
94.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 13 yds to the Chatt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
94.3%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the Chatt 23Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+5
94.2%
CHATTANOOGA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Chatt 18Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+5
94.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the Chatt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
95.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 13 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:355% → 5%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
95.1%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to James Stovall for 15 yds to the Chatt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
94.7%
Derrick Craine run for 2 yds to the Chatt 42Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
94.8%
Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Richardre BagleySimilar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-13
94.9%
Jacob Huesman sacked by Nate Andrews for a loss of 13 yards to the Chatt 29Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 21
OWN 29
+6
95.2%
Alejandro Bennifield punt for 23 yds , Jalen Ramsey returns for 6 yds to the Chatt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:1695% → 95%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
95.2%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 4 yds to the Chatt 42Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
95.2%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+7
95.0%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 7 yds to the Chatt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+30
95.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 30 yds to the Chatt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
95.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the Chatt 1Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
95.0%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Chatt 2Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
94.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the Chatt 1Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
95.3%
Roberto Aguayo 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 0:225% → 4%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
95.3%
Derrick Craine run for no gain to the Chatt 13Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
95.2%
Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to James StovallSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-5
95.7%
CHATTANOOGA Penalty, false start (Brandon Morgan) to the Chatt 8Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 15
OWN 8
+7
95.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Alejandro Bennifield for 7 yds to the Chatt 15Similar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
95.8%
Alejandro Bennifield punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:1496% → 97%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
95.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 12 yds to the Chatt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
95.5%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 14 yds to the Chatt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
95.6%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the Chatt 26Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
97.4%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 26 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
96.8%
Jacob Huesman run for 6 yds to the Chatt 20Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+6
96.8%
Derrick Craine run for 6 yds to the Chatt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
96.7%
Jacob Huesman run for 9 yds to the Chatt 35Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
96.4%
Derrick Craine run for no gain to the Chatt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
96.7%
Jacob Huesman pass intercepted Lamarcus Brutus return for 37 yds to the Chatt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:1197% → 99%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
97.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Chatt 11Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-2
97.5%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the Chatt 13Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.2%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 13 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
98.8%
Derrick Craine run for 5 yds to the Chatt 36 Derrick Craine fumbled, forced by DeMarcus Walker, recovered by FlaSt Tyler HunterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:4699% → 100%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
99.2%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 18 yds to the Chatt 18 for a 1ST down CHATTANOOGA Penalty, roughing passer (Keionta Davis) to the Chatt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
99.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the Chatt 3Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.2%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete, broken up by C.J. FritzSimilar
Q3 11:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.2%
Sean Maguire thrown away pass incomplete to Dalvin Cook, PENALTY UTC personal foul (Dee Virgin) 1 yards to the UTC2, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 11:48.Similar
Q3 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.6%
Alex Trotter run for 11 yds to the Chatt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-14
99.6%
Alex Trotter run for 1 yd to the Chatt 37 CHATTANOOGA Penalty, tripping (Corey Levin) to the Chatt 22Similar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 24
OWN 22
+2
99.6%
Derrick Craine run for 2 yds to the Chatt 24Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 22
OWN 24
+4
99.6%
Alejandro Bennifield pass complete to Richardre Bagley for 4 yds to the Chatt 28Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Alejandro Bennifield pass incomplete to James StovallSimilar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+8
99.6%
Henrique Ribeiro punt for 46 yds , Nyqwan Murray returns for 8 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 66 yds · 5:53100% → 100%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
99.8%
J.J. Cosentino pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 4 yds to the Chatt 47Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+12
99.8%
J.J. Cosentino pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 12 yds to the Chatt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the Chatt 32Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the Chatt 27Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 2
OWN 0
+5
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the Chatt 22 for a 1ST down CHATTANOOGA Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Chatt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the Chatt 16Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+5
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the Chatt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the Chatt 9Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
99.8%
J.J. Cosentino pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+7
99.8%
J.J. Cosentino crossing pass intercepted by Montrell Pardue at the UTC2, Montrell Pardue return to the UTC17, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UTC pass interference (C.J. Fritz) 7 yards to the UTC2, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 03:04.Similar
Q3 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Colton Plante run for 2 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:270% → 0%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Alex Trotter run for 7 yds to the Chatt 32Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Alejandro Bennifield pass incomplete to C.J. BoardSimilar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+24
99.9%
Alejandro Bennifield run for 24 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.9%
Alejandro Bennifield run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-1
99.9%
Derrick Craine run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+19
99.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Montrell Pardue for 4 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, personal foul (Lorenzo Featherston) to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
99.9%
Derrick Craine run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+6
99.9%
Derrick Craine run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
99.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to James Stovall for 4 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+6
99.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Wil Young for 6 yds to the FlaSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Jacob Huesman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Henrique Ribeiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
99.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 11 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 8
50
+32
99.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 32 yds to the Chatt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
99.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 14 yds to the Chatt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.9%
Kyle Nalls run for 12 yds to the Chatt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Tyler Roberson run for 1 yd to the Chatt 38Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-4
99.9%
Kyle Nalls run for a loss of 4 yards to the Chatt 34Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Tyler Roberson run for 8 yds to the Chatt 42Similar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 5
OWN 42
-2
99.9%
Henrique Ribeiro punt for 44 yds , Nyqwan Murray returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
99.9%
Steven Williams run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+4
99.9%
Steven Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+24
99.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ja'Vonn Harrison for 24 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Steven Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Steven Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-2
99.9%
Everett Golson sacked by D.J. Prather for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 37 yds, downed at the Chatt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:200% → 0%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
100.0%
Tyler Roberson run for 3 yds to the Chatt 22Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Tyler Roberson run for no gain to the Chatt 22Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+8
100.0%
Tyler Roberson run for 8 yds to the Chatt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
100.0%
Tyler Roberson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Chatt 28Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+2
100.0%
Alex Trotter run for 2 yds to the Chatt 30Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
100.0%
Tyler Roberson run for 15 yds to the Chatt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
100.0%
Kyle Nalls run for a loss of 1 yard to the Chatt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:35
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 26 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q3 13:14
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 13 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 9:24
Dalvin Cook run for 13 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com