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DUKE

Duke 34 at Virginia 42

UVA
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:30 · Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense+20.7Score differential+15.1Garbage-time factor+4.0Pregame prior+3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4Time remaining+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:27: Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +8.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:15: Dylan Sims kickoff for 59 yds , DeVon Edwards return for 94 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +8.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:30: Taquan Mizzell run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +12.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:03: Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 50 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +9.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:24: Parker Boehme run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +10.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 6 at UVA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.1%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:36DUKE 4th & 6 at UVA 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−4.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:55DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 9 at DUKE 49, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:30DUKE 4th & 2 at UVA 48, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:30DUKE 4th & 10 at UVA 44, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−1.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    6.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:03DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 22, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:02UVA 4th & 4 at DUKE 31, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:20UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 24, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:33UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:26DUKE 4th & 1 at UVA 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−3.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−6.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:38DUKE 4th & 15 at UVA 36, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%
    42% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:54UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 36, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:54DUKE 4th & 2 at UVA 6, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%−2.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−6.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 7:56UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:52UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:27UVA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:15DUKE Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:08UVA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:30UVA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:56DUKE Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:03UVA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:20DUKE Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:24DUKE Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 42 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
57.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+3
57.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+5
57.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 5 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
57.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 13 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
57.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
57.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-5
57.3%
DUKE Penalty, false start (T.J. Rahming) to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+13
57.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 13 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
57.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
57.3%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
57.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete, broken up by Mike MooreSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
57.3%
Will Monday punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:4758% → 61%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
57.5%
Daniel Hamm run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
57.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 10 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
57.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+48
57.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 48 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
58.1%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 8Similar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 5
OPP 8
-7
58.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Duke 5 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 15Similar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 12
OPP 15
+15
61.0%
Olamide Zaccheaus pass complete to Evan Butts for 15 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3INT
12 plays · 32 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
60.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
59.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jela Duncan for 13 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
59.5%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 9
50
-6
59.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the VIRGINIA 46 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+2
60.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 2 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+18
60.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 18 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
59.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+2
59.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-5
59.5%
DUKE Penalty, false start (T.J. Rahming) to the Virg 38Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 12
OPP 38
-5
59.9%
DUKE Penalty, false start (T.J. Rahming) to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 17
OPP 43
0
60.1%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted, touchback. Darious Latimore return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:5262% → 69%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+45
62.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to David Eldridge for 45 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
63.1%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 8 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+1
63.1%
Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+26
68.6%
T.J. Thorpe run for 26 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
66.6%
Parker Boehme run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 23 Parker Boehme fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by Virg Mike MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1569% → 77%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
69.1%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+22
68.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 22 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
68.4%
Albert Reid run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 3Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8INT
16 plays · 71 yds · 0:1568% → 70%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
68.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+13
68.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 13 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
68.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 9 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
69.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
69.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for no gain to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
69.2%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 7 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
68.8%
Matt Johns run for no gain to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+5
68.4%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 5 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
69.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 10 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
69.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+14
69.3%
Daniel Hamm run for 14 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
69.2%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
69.6%
Johns, M pass incomplete to Severin, C (Borders, B), PENALTY DU pass interference (Borders, B) 15 yards to the DU9, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
69.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 18 Taquan Mizzell fumbled, forced by Brandon Boyce, recovered by Virg Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+3
69.5%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Breon Borders return for 3 yds to the Duke 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 3:5428% → 28%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
72.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 8 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+5
71.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jela Duncan for 5 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
72.2%
Jela Duncan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+12
72.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Erich Schneider for 12 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
71.6%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+21
71.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 21 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
70.5%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+15
70.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Wilfred Wahee) to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
69.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-3
69.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+7
71.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 7 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+36
71.7%
Ross Martin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, broken up by Jeremy CashSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+14
72.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 14 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
73.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 5 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
73.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds Taquan Mizzell fumbled, forced by Tinashe Bere, recovered by Duke Deondre SingletonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete, broken up by Mike MooreSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
72.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
72.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
74.2%
Will Monday punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Olamide Zaccheaus at the Virg 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:2874% → 82%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
74.4%
Matt Johns run for 9 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+17
74.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 17 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
75.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 17 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
82.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 36 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 1:0418% → 24%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
81.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 11 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
81.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 10 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
81.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+16
82.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 16 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
79.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete, broken up by David DeanSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
80.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 11 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+42
75.8%
Ross Martin 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
82.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-2
82.2%
Albert Reid run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
81.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
80.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
80.9%
Jela Duncan run for 15 yds to the Duke 38 Jela Duncan fumbled, forced by Darious Latimore, recovered by Virg Kwontie MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:5483% → 95%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
83.0%
Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
82.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+12
82.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 12 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
83.0%
T.J. Thorpe run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+4
83.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+12
82.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 12 yds to the Duke 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
94.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
16 plays · 67 yds · 4:347% → 16%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
93.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 11 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
93.1%
DUKE Penalty, illegal shift (T.J. Rahming) to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+12
93.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 12 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-1
92.7%
Thomas Sirk sacked by David Dean and Mike Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 4
50
+2
93.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 2 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+4
93.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
93.0%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Trent Corney for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 48Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+4
93.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
93.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Darious LatimoreSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 10
OPP 44
+16
93.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 16 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
92.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 8 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+8
92.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 8 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
92.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton Deaver, broken up by Wilfred WaheeSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
92.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 5 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
84.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 7 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:5388% → 98%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
87.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 9 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+1
88.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
88.1%
Albert Reid run for 6 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
88.1%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
88.2%
Johns, M pass incomplete to Severin, C, PENALTY DU roughing passer (Cash, J) 15 yards to the VA48, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
88.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 8
50
0
88.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 8
50
+50
97.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 50 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
97.2%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+4
97.4%
Will Monday punt for 50 yds , Olamide Zaccheaus returns for 4 yds to the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:3398% → 99%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
97.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 21 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
98.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
98.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Albert Reid for no gain to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+6
98.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 6 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
98.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-1
98.9%
Daniel Hamm run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
98.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
98.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:072% → 8%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.4%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Jela DuncanSimilar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
98.5%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Jela Duncan for 9 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
98.4%
Parker Boehme run for 3 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+40
98.4%
Parker Boehme pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 40 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
98.1%
Parker Boehme sacked by Andrew Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+12
98.2%
Parker Boehme run for 12 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+12
92.1%
Parker Boehme pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 12 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
95.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
95.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Deondre SingletonSimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
94.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
94.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 44 yds , Ryan Smith returns for no gain to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 0:536% → 19%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+47
93.7%
Parker Boehme pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 47 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
92.1%
Boehme, P pass incomplete to McCaffrey, M, PENALTY VA pass interference (Canady, M) 15 yards to the VA6, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
92.1%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Wilfred WaheeSimilar
Q4 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
92.1%
Parker Boehme run for 5 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.2%
Parker Boehme run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:5189% → 92%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
88.6%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
88.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-11
89.7%
Matt Johns sacked by Tinashe Bere and Marquies Price for a loss of 11 yards to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 21
OWN 31
-1
88.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 22
OWN 30
+5
87.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 5 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
91.5%
Nicholas Conte punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 13 , Ryan Smith returns for no gain to the Duke 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 1:4810% → 7%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
90.1%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 0
+15
83.9%
Boehme, P pass incomplete to Nash, A, PENALTY VA pass interference (Latimore, D) 15 yards to the DU28, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY, PENALTY VA unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the DU43, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
87.8%
Parker Boehme run for 13 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
86.7%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
86.8%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Erich Schneider for 9 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
85.5%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Tim HarrisSimilar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
87.5%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Erich Schneider for 4 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
84.7%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Max McCaffrey, broken up by Maurice CanadySimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
85.0%
Parker Boehme sacked by Trent Corney for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 15
OPP 36
0
89.3%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, broken up by Tim HarrisSimilar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 15
OPP 36
0
92.8%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Darious LatimoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:3796% → 97%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
96.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+4
95.5%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+1
96.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+27
96.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the VIRGINIA 22 VIRGINIA Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 57 yds · 0:005% → 8%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+49
94.8%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Anthony Nash for 49 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
89.8%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+8
89.8%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Jela Duncan for 8 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
90.8%
Parker Boehme pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 2
OPP 6
0
92.5%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, broken up by Wilfred WaheeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:30
Taquan Mizzell run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
+12
TD · Q4 7:24
Parker Boehme run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q3 2:03
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 50 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com