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BC

Boston College 16 at Notre Dame 19

ND
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Fenway Park
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:06 · Alex Howell punt for 44 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+11.3Home team on offense+18.5Garbage-time factor+4.5Score differential+7.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 13:10: Colton Lichtenberg 43 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +2.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:10: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ND win probability +4.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:17: Jeff Smith run for 80 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BC win probability +5.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:54: Jeff Smith pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +26.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:47: Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the BC 35 — ND win probability +15.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 9:32BC 4th & 13 at BC 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:59ND 4th & 5 at BC 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:42BC 4th & 12 at BC 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:00BC 4th & 5 at BC 37, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:30BC 4th & 6 at BC 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:28ND 4th & 14 at ND 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:46BC 4th & 18 at BC 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:43ND 4th & 13 at ND 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:51BC 4th & 5 at BC 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:27BC 4th & 1 at BC 40, down 10
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:10BC 4th & 8 at ND 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:22BC 4th & 18 at BC 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−3.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:06BC 4th & 11 at BC 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:35ND 4th & 5 at BC 18, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:43ND 4th & 11 at ND 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:15BC 4th & 9 at BC 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:59ND 4th & 4 at BC 44, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BC made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q1 0:04ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:10ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:17BC Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:54BC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%−2.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1INT
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:2589% → 89%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
89.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 9 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-4
89.1%
Prosise, C.J. rush for 3 yards to the NOTREDAME47, PENALTY NOTREDAME illegal formation 4 yards to the NOTREDAME40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
89.0%
C.J. Prosise run for no gain to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
88.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 7 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+31
88.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 31 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
88.7%
Kizer, DeShone pass incomplete to Fuller, Will, PENALTY BOSTCOLL pass interference (McClary, Gabriel) 15 yards to the BOSTCOLL7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
88.7%
DeShone Kizer pass intercepted, touchback. John Johnson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:4112% → 12%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
88.5%
John Fadule run for 3 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
88.3%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (Aaron Monteiro) to the BC 18Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+20
88.2%
John Fadule run for 20 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
88.0%
Tyler Rouse run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 33Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
87.9%
John Fadule pass incomplete to David DudeckSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+2
87.9%
John Fadule run for 2 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
87.8%
Alex Howell punt for 42 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for no gain to the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:2688% → 87%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
87.7%
C.J. Prosise run for 9 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+26
87.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 26 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
87.7%
DeShone Kizer run for 8 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+5
87.6%
Kizer, DeShone pass complete to Fuller, Will for 3 yards to the BOSTCOLL31, PENALTY BOSTCOLL offside 5 yards to the BOSTCOLL29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
87.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 11 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
87.4%
C.J. Prosise run for 2 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+3
87.3%
DeShone Kizer run for 3 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
86.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Alize JonesSimilar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
87.1%
Justin Yoon 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0013% → 13%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
87.0%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the BC 18Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+2
86.9%
Tyler Rouse run for 2 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-5
86.8%
John Fadule sacked by Sheldon Day for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 15Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
86.9%
Alex Howell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · 19 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
86.7%
C.J. Prosise run for 19 yds to the BC 32 C.J. Prosise fumbled, forced by Justin Simmons, recovered by BC Justin SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1714% → 14%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
86.2%
Tyler Rouse run for 3 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
85.9%
Tyler Rouse run for 2 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
85.7%
John Fadule pass incomplete to David DudeckSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+3
86.0%
Justin Simmons run for 3 yds to the BC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:4186% → 88%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
86.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 17 yds C.J. Prosise fumbled, forced by John Johnson, recovered by NDame Nick Martin for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
86.3%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 26Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 13
OPP 26
0
86.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Alize JonesSimilar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 13
OPP 26
0
85.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will Fuller, broken up by Matt MilanoSimilar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+13
84.9%
Yoon, Justin field goal attempt from 44 MISSED - hit right upright, spot at BOSTCOLL26, clock 00:30, PENALTY BOSTCOLL roughing the kicker (Johnson, John) 13 yards to the BOSTCOLL13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
86.0%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
88.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 10 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2213% → 12%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.5%
Myles Willis run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
87.3%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 29Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
87.7%
John Fadule pass incomplete to Elijah Robinson, broken up by Cole LukeSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
88.0%
Alex Howell punt for 28 yds, downed at the NDame 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5488% → 87%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
87.8%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 13
OWN 40
-3
87.5%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 16
OWN 37
+2
86.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
86.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 55 yds, downed at the BC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:3213% → 12%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
87.4%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+8
87.4%
John Fadule pass complete to Thadd Smith for 8 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
87.1%
Myles Willis run for 4 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+2
87.3%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+17
87.5%
John Fadule run for 17 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
86.6%
Sherman Alston run for 1 yd to the BC 40Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+1
86.7%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-10
86.9%
John Fadule sacked by Max Redfield for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 31Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 18
OWN 31
+60
87.7%
Alex Howell punt for 55 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NOTREDAME 14 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (C.J. Sanders) to the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:5687% → 86%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
86.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 14 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
87.1%
C.J. Prosise run for 2 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+18
87.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 18 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
87.7%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
87.3%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
86.7%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 13
OWN 40
-6
86.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 50 yds , Sherman Alston returns for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 4 Sherman Alston fumbled, recovered by NDame Scott DalySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:0988% → 88%
Q2 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
87.9%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the BC 3Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
87.9%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+13
87.7%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 16 Josh Adams fumbled, forced by Matt Milano, recovered by BC Matt Milano , return for 13 yds to the BC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:2513% → 13%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
86.9%
John Fadule pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 22 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.5%
John Fadule pass incomplete to Thadd SmithSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
86.6%
John Fadule pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
87.1%
John Fadule pass complete to David Dudeck for 5 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
87.1%
Alex Howell punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:3887% → 87%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
87.3%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris Brown, broken up by Gabriel McClarySimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+14
87.2%
DeShone Kizer run for 14 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
88.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
87.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
87.3%
DeShone Kizer pass intercepted Justin Simmons return for no gain to the BC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3313% → 14%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.7%
John Fadule pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
86.9%
John Fadule pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 9 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
85.7%
John Fadule pass incomplete to David DudeckSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
86.4%
Alex Howell punt for 34 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for no gain to the NDame 26 C.J. Sanders fumbled, recovered by NDame C.J. SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
87.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17FG
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3016% → 16%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
84.4%
Myles Willis run for no gain to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
84.5%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
87.2%
John Fadule pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
84.5%
Colton Lichtenberg 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18INT
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:2186% → 88%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
85.5%
Josh Adams run for 12 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris Brown, broken up by John JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+38
86.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 38 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
87.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 13 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
87.5%
Torii Hunter Jr. run for 4 yds to the BC 5Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
87.5%
DeShone Kizer run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 6Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
87.6%
DeShone Kizer pass intercepted Justin Simmons return for no gain to the BC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:5315% → 15%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
85.3%
Richard Wilson run for 7 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+4
84.8%
Richard Wilson run for 4 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
84.6%
Richard Wilson run for 3 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+12
84.5%
Jeff Smith run for 12 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
84.0%
Tyler Rouse run for 4 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+6
83.4%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Thadd Smith for 6 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
82.9%
Jeff Smith run for 5 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-6
82.0%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Thadd Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 38Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-7
84.4%
Jeff Smith run for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 31 Jeff Smith fumbled, recovered by BC Jeff SmithSimilar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 18
OWN 31
0
85.5%
Alex Howell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:5887% → 95%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
86.8%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
87.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Alize Jones for 4 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+9
87.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 9 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
88.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
88.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+32
87.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 32 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
90.5%
Josh Adams run for 9 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+12
94.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:487% → 6%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
92.9%
Richard Wilson run for 1 yd to the BC 32Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-5
93.3%
Smith, Jeff pass complete to Dudeck, David for 20 yards to the NOTREDAME48, PENALTY BOSTCOLL illegal formation 5 yards to the BOSTCOLL27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+8
93.9%
Richard Wilson run for 8 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-15
93.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the BC 20Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 21
OWN 20
+10
94.0%
Jeff Smith run for 10 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 11
OWN 30
-4
94.2%
Alex Howell punt for 44 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:0495% → 97%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+33
95.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 33 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
96.0%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
96.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+15
96.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Robinson for 15 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
96.1%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 25Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+4
96.0%
Amir Carlisle run for 4 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+3
96.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 3 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
96.8%
Justin Yoon 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
91.5%
Jeff Smith run for 80 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1591% → 92%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
90.5%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 17Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+31
90.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 31 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
92.4%
Adams, Josh rush for 3 yards to the BOSTCOLL49, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding 10 yards to the NOTREDAME38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 20
OWN 38
0
91.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+9
92.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 9 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
92.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will Fuller, broken up by Gabriel McClarySimilar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
91.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:197% → 6%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.9%
Richard Wilson run for 2 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
93.0%
Richard Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 21Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
94.1%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete to Elijah RobinsonSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
94.3%
Alex Howell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Will Fuller at the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0194% → 94%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
93.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 9 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
94.0%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
50
+6
94.1%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
94.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
94.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
93.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Thadd Smith at the BC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 2:586% → 33%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
94.1%
John Fadule pass incomplete to Elijah Robinson, broken up by Jaylon SmithSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-7
94.4%
Fadule, John pass complete to Callinan, Charlie for 11 yards to the BOSTCOLL25, PENALTY BOSTCOLL personal foul 7 yards to the BOSTCOLL7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 17
OWN 7
+9
95.0%
John Fadule pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 9 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+14
95.9%
John Fadule run for 14 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
95.2%
John Fadule pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 6 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
94.9%
John Fadule pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 5 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
95.0%
John Fadule run for 23 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
94.4%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Harrison Jackson for 9 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+12
93.6%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 12 yds Tyler Rouse fumbled, forced by KeiVarae Russell, recovered by BC Elijah Robinson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
93.6%
Smith, Jeff pass incomplete to Jackson, Harrison, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Shumate, Elijah) 12 yards to the NOTREDAME3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOSTCOLL.Similar
Q4 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
67.2%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:4794% → 96%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
94.3%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+1
95.1%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the BC 34Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-4
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:54
Jeff Smith pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
-26.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:47
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the BC 35
+15.6
TD · Q4 10:17
Jeff Smith run for 80 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com