Try the model
MIA

Miami 21 at North Carolina 59

UNC
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:45 · Brad Kaaya pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 8 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Home team on offense+34.1Pregame prior+9.6Score differential+28.2Blowout margin+16.4Garbage-time factor+6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:40: Marquise Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +2.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:28: Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +3.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 10:22: Nick Weiler 25 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +2.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:24: Marquise Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +7.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:18: Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:59MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:32UNC 4th & 11 at MIA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01MIA 4th & 18 at MIA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:02UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:31MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:22UNC 4th & 8 at MIA 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:50MIA 4th & 3 at UNC 15, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.0%−0.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:15UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 26, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:40MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:08MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 25, down 38
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:45MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 44, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:26MIA 4th & 1 at UNC 1, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:00MIA 4th & 4 at UNC 45, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:40UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:28UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:24UNC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:18UNC Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:26UNC Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:30MIA Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:14UNC Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:26MIA Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:31UNC Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:05MIA Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5319% → 19%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
81.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
81.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:2281% → 80%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.2%
Ryan Switzer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.0%
Ryan Switzer run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
81.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
81.0%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
80.9%
Elijah Hood run for 10 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
80.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 9 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+4
80.9%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
80.8%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-5
80.7%
Marquise Williams sacked by Calvin Heurtelou and Ufomba Kamalu for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
80.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
80.2%
Joey Mangili punt for 39 yds, downed at the MiaFl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:2620% → 21%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
80.2%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+1
80.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+14
80.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 14 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
79.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 13 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
79.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 14 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
79.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
78.6%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-5
78.4%
Walton, Mark rush for 8 yards to the UNC40, PENALTY MIAMIFL illegal formation 5 yards to the MIAMIFL47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-11
78.5%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Jeremiah Clarke for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 18
OWN 36
+25
79.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the UNC 24 MIAMI FL Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Ryan Mayes) to the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5379% → 78%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
79.0%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+2
78.8%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
78.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
78.1%
Joey Mangili punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2522% → 23%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+22
78.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 22 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
77.5%
Trayone Gray run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+7
77.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 7 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
77.1%
Gray, Trayone rush for 4 yards to the UNC42, PENALTY MIAMIFL illegal formation 5 yards to the MIAMIFL49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 15
OWN 49
-13
77.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the MiaFl 36 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro Cayson CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:4279% → 82%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
78.9%
Marquise Williams run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
79.0%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Rayshawn Jenkins) to the MiaFl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
81.8%
Marquise Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5919% → 19%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
80.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
80.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
81.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
81.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 36 yds, downed at the MiaFl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:5682% → 85%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
81.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 12 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
81.5%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+13
81.6%
T.J. Logan run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
81.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
81.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 8 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+4
81.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
81.6%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
81.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 2 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.4%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1616% → 16%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
84.1%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
84.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10FG
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:2885% → 89%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
85.4%
Williams, Marquise pass incomplete to Hollins, Mack, PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Burns, Artie) 10 yards to the UNC44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+51
86.1%
Marquise Williams run for 46 yds to the UNC 10 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Artie Burns) to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
86.2%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
86.3%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 8 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by NCaro Marquise WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
88.6%
Nick Weiler 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:4414% → 13%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
86.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 34 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Stacy Coley) to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
87.3%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
86.9%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+5
87.4%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
87.0%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
86.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+7
87.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 7 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+60
86.6%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Jeff Schoettmer return for 60 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
93.9%
Marquise Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:238% → 7%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
92.1%
Yearby, Joseph rush for 16 yards to the UNC28, PENALTY MIAMIFL holding (McDermott, Kc) 10 yards to the MIAMIFL46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+32
92.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 32 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
91.9%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
92.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
92.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
92.7%
Michael Badgley 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2794% → 94%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
94.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 12 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
94.6%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-5
94.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 16
OWN 26
0
94.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 16
OWN 26
+5
94.4%
Joey Mangili punt for 46 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 5 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:246% → 2%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
93.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for no gain to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-2
93.8%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 12
OWN 31
0
94.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 12
OWN 31
+78
98.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 47 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 78 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:372% → 2%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
98.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
50
+13
98.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 13 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
98.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 23 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
97.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-12
97.9%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Andre Smith for a loss of 12 yards to the NCaro 26 Brad Kaaya fumbled, recovered by NCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
98.5%
Elijah Hood run for 18 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 1:2799% → 99%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.8%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+32
98.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 32 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
98.9%
Elijah Hood run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.0%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.0%
Williams, Marquise pass incomplete to Davis, Quinshad, PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Burns, Artie) 3 yards to the MIAMIFL2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 6 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+1
99.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
99.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Damien Washington for 12 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.3%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
50
+8
99.4%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
99.4%
Elijah Hood run for 22 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
99.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 17 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:511% → 0%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+16
99.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 16 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.5%
Mark Walton run for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+2
99.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
99.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 16 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
99.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Tyre Brady for 6 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+2
99.5%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 3
-5
99.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 8Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
99.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.6%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+34
99.6%
Elijah Hood run for 34 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.7%
Williams, Marquise pass incomplete to Davis, Quinshad, PENALTY MIAMIFL roughing passer (Thomas, Chad) 15 yards to the MIAMIFL19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
99.7%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+6
99.7%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+3
99.7%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.7%
T.J. Logan run for 9 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
14 plays · 94 yds · 3:390% → 0%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+30
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 30 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+8
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 8 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+38
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 28 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jeff Schoettmer) to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.8%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Tyre Brady for 7 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 14:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Brad Kaaya run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:29100% → 100%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.8%
Charles Brunson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-8
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Jermaine Grace for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+20
99.8%
Mitch Trubisky run for 20 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.9%
Charles Brunson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Fieulleteau for 5 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+10
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Damien Washington for 10 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.9%
Charles Brunson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+1
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+7
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Fieulleteau for 7 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Fieulleteau for 15 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Charles Brunson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:150% → 0%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.9%
Kaaya, Brad pass incomplete to Cager, Lawrence, PENALTY UNC roughing passer 15 yards to the MIAMIFL35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIFL.Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
99.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 14 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+6
99.9%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+15
99.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 15 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 4 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+10
99.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 10 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+15
99.9%
Trayone Gray run for 15 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Trayone Gray run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26END OF GAME
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
100.0%
Romar Morris run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+47
100.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Fieulleteau for 47 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
100.0%
Romar Morris run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+2
100.0%
Romar Morris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
100.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 15
OPP 32
-11
100.0%
Francis, Khris rush for no gain to the MIAMIFL32, PENALTY UNC holding 11 yards to the MIAMIFL43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 26
OPP 43
+1
100.0%
Khris Francis run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 25
OPP 42
-1
100.0%
Khris Francis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:24
Marquise Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q2 13:28
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q1 2:40
Marquise Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com