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UVA

Virginia 31 at Louisville 38

LOU
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:14 · Joshua Appleby punt for 50 yds , Olamide Zaccheaus returns for no gain to the Virg 2 Olamide Zaccheaus fumbled, forced by James Quick, recovered by Lvile Stacy Thomas VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (T.J. Thorpe) to the Virg 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+4.3Home team on offense+1.1Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:24: Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 30 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +7.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:56: Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +9.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:14: Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 23 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +27.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:30: L.J. Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +22.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:16: Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 16 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +9.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 2:07LOU 4th & 3 at UVA 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.5%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−4.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00UVA 4th & 10 at LOU 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:46LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:57UVA 4th & 6 at LOU 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:47UVA 4th & 7 at LOU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00UVA 4th & 15 at LOU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:56UVA 4th & 19 at UVA 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−3.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:00LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:30UVA 4th & 19 at UVA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−2.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:14UVA 4th & 7 at LOU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−11.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:14LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−1.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:30UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:57UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:16UVA 4th & 10 at LOU 16, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:08UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:54LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:24UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:47LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:56LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:14UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:30LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:57LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:16UVA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:5225% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
74.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
74.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 12 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
74.6%
Mizzell, T rush right for 1 yard to the VA46 (Burgess, J.), PENALTY VA illegal motion 5 yards to the VA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+3
74.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
74.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+22
74.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 22 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
74.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 10 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
74.6%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
74.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan Mizzell, broken up by Jermaine ReveSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+8
74.6%
Matt Johns run for 8 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
74.6%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+8
74.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 8 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
74.6%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 4 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
74.6%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 2Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Evan Butts for 2 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:0170% → 70%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
70.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+8
70.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 8 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
70.8%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jamari Staples, broken up by Tim HarrisSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
70.6%
Traveon Samuel run for 13 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
71.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 10 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
71.2%
Bolin, K. slant pass incomplete to Staples, J. (Harris, T), PENALTY VA pass interference (Harris, T) 11 yards to the VA26, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
71.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+10
71.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 10 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
71.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 5 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q1 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
71.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 8Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
71.1%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
70.1%
John Wallace 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0731% → 31%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
69.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+15
69.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 15 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
68.6%
Daniel Hamm run for 7 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-7
68.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
68.1%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
69.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 40 yds, downed at the Lvile 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
68.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 6 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 12
OWN 6
0
68.3%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 12
OWN 6
0
67.7%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jamari Staples, broken up by Andrew BrownSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 12
OWN 6
+5
67.5%
Joshua Appleby punt for 49 yds , Olamide Zaccheaus returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
50
0
67.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
50
+4
67.0%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
67.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+20
68.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 39 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 20 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:2768% → 73%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
67.6%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
67.3%
Kyle Bolin run for 8 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+45
68.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 45 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
73.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 20 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:3029% → 37%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
71.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+35
71.1%
Albert Reid run for 35 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
63.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 30 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 2:3766% → 74%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
65.6%
Bailey, D. deep pass incomplete to Staples, J. (Harris, T), PENALTY VA pass interference (Harris, T) 15 yards to the LOU26, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
65.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 8 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+17
67.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Kwontie Moore) to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
68.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
68.1%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+17
68.0%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 17 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
74.0%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 21 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9FG
18 plays · 53 yds · 6:4729% → 35%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
71.2%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
71.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+16
71.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 1 yd to the Virg 25 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (James Burgess) to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
69.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+12
69.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 12 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
69.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Virg Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+1
70.1%
Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+6
70.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+14
70.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 14 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
68.2%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 14
OPP 28
-5
69.2%
Matt Johns sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 19
OPP 33
-5
69.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 24
OPP 38
+9
69.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Albert Reid for 9 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+46
65.2%
Ian Frye 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 3:0468% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
67.6%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 26 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
70.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+22
70.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 22 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
70.9%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 6 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+8
70.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Devonte Peete for 8 yds to the Virg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
80.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
76.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 14 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
75.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for no gain to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
75.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-7
77.0%
Matt Johns sacked by Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 19
OWN 33
0
78.2%
Nicholas Conte punt for 43 yds, downed at the Lvile 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:5079% → 78%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
79.4%
Traveon Samuel run for 17 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
80.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
79.9%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
79.6%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+4
78.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
78.3%
Joshua Appleby punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Olamide Zaccheaus at the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:2929% → 21%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+15
70.8%
Zaccheaus, O rush right for 1 yard to the VA26, out-of-bounds (Harvey-Clemons), PENALTY VA holding (Hopkins, C) 10 yards to the VA15, NO PLAY, PENALTY LOU personal foul (Harvey-Clemons) 15 yards to the VA30, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
75.7%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
78.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 8 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+10
76.0%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 10 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
75.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 10 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
74.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 49 Taquan Mizzell fumbled, recovered by Virg Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 17
OPP 49
0
77.0%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 17
OPP 49
-2
78.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 19
OWN 49
0
79.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
80.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Jamari Staples) to the Lvile 3Similar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 13
OWN 3
0
80.1%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Lvile 3Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 13
OWN 3
+15
79.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 15 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
80.6%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Kwontie Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 20 Kyle Bolin fumbled, recovered by Virg Micah Kiser , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15MISSED FG
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:0527% → 21%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
73.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 11 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
73.1%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
73.1%
T.J. Thorpe run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 13Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
77.0%
Matt Johns run for 6 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q3 0:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
79.2%
Ian Frye 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:1485% → 87%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.9%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
84.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
83.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 15 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
85.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 8 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
86.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
86.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-5
86.8%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Zach Bradshaw for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 44 Kyle Bolin fumbled, recovered by Virg Zach Bradshaw , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:5420% → 49%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
79.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 18 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
77.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-1
77.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 23Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+23
50.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 23 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0061% → 58%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
60.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete, broken up by Andrew BrownSimilar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.1%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
58.4%
Joshua Appleby punt for 50 yds , Olamide Zaccheaus returns for no gain to the Virg 2 Olamide Zaccheaus fumbled, forced by James Quick, recovered by Lvile Stacy Thomas VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (T.J. Thorpe) to the Virg 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4467% → 89%
Q4 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.4%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 14%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
82.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
84.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
85.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
85.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 67 yds, downed at the Lvile 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 96 yds · 4:2189% → 98%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
88.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 3
OWN 11
-4
88.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 7Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+11
87.6%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 11 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
88.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 16Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+11
88.4%
Kyle Bolin run for 11 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+31
88.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 31 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
90.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+36
98.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 36 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:413% → 12%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
97.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
97.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+11
97.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 11 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
97.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (James Hearns) to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
96.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+26
96.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 26 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
96.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
96.5%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
96.9%
Matt Johns run for no gain to the Lvile 16Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+16
87.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 16 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0296% → 97%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 13
OPP 44
-1
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:14
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 23 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
-27
TD · Q4 8:30
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q4 1:16
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 16 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com