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PITT

Pittsburgh 31 at Duke 13

DUKE
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Nicodem Pierre pass incomplete to Braxton Deaver, broken up by Matthew Steinbeck
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense+1.0Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Pregame prior+5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:28: Parker Boehme run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +5.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:43: Chris Blewitt 51 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +8.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:37: Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +14.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:34: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +18.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:25: Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +14.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 6 at PITT 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:21PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 1 at PITT 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:57PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:59DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:49PITT 4th & 10 at DUKE 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:52DUKE 4th & 7 at PITT 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:43PITT 4th & 9 at DUKE 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:37DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:24DUKE 4th & 13 at PITT 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:00PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:43DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:37PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 19, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:02PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:28DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:37PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:34PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:25PITT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
56.7%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 22 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
56.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 11 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
56.7%
Parker Boehme pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+2
56.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+1
56.7%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Anthony Nash for 1 yd to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
56.7%
Will Monday punt for 36 yds, downed at the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 6:1443% → 47%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
56.9%
Nathan Peterman run for 6 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+2
56.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+13
57.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 13 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
56.8%
Tyler Boyd run for 2 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+21
56.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 21 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
56.6%
Tyler Boyd run for 2 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+17
56.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 17 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
56.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
56.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+8
56.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
56.5%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the Duke 15Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+2
56.5%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
52.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Zach Challingsworth for 13 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:2854% → 59%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
53.6%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-2
53.7%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Max McCaffrey for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 22Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+11
53.2%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 11 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
53.8%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
54.1%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+15
53.6%
Boehme, P pass incomplete to Deaver, B, PENALTY UP pass interference (Whitehead, J.) 15 yards to the UP48, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
54.7%
Boehme, P pass complete to Deaver, B for 8 yards to the UP40 (Whitehead, J.), PENALTY DU illegal formation 5 yards to the DU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
54.0%
Jela Duncan run for no gain to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
53.9%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+52
53.6%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Anthony Nash for 52 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.1%
Parker Boehme run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
56.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
56.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
56.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 8
OWN 29
-3
57.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 52 yds , Ryan Smith returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:2457% → 58%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+77
57.4%
Parker Boehme run for 77 yds to the Pitt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
59.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
59.3%
Parker Boehme run for 1 yd to the Pitt 2Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.7%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 1 yd to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.2%
Nicodem Pierre pass incomplete to Braxton Deaver, broken up by Matthew SteinbeckSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
56.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 7
OWN 4
-2
56.9%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 2Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+11
57.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Zach Challingsworth for 11 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
56.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 15 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
56.3%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
56.1%
Jordan Whitehead run for 3 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
56.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
56.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:2758% → 58%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
57.7%
Parker Boehme run for 5 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+12
57.9%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 12 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
58.0%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
58.7%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
58.7%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Max McCaffrey, broken up by Justin MoodySimilar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
58.2%
Will Monday punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Avonte Maddox at the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
56.8%
Tyler Boyd run for 15 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
56.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott Orndoff, broken up by Deondre SingletonSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
56.4%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+6
55.8%
Nathan Peterman run for 6 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
54.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 9 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+3
54.4%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
54.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
54.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler Boyd, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
55.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Qadree OllisonSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
56.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9FG
11 plays · 76 yds · 2:4659% → 63%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
58.8%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
58.7%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 5 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+36
58.0%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Anthony Nash for 36 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
61.5%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+4
61.5%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Anthony Nash for 4 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+7
61.2%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 7 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
62.2%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 18 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
62.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
62.2%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Quintin WirginisSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
61.4%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Terrence Alls, broken up by Jordan WhiteheadSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
62.9%
Ross Martin 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 3:0239% → 46%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
61.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 12 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
59.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 13 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
58.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 4 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
58.6%
Tyler Boyd run for 4 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
58.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
57.8%
Nathan Peterman run for 6 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
58.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-5
59.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Pitt Qadree OllisonSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+51
54.1%
Chris Blewitt 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
58.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 5:1646% → 65%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+43
54.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 43 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
51.0%
Jordan Whitehead run for 9 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+3
49.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
49.9%
Nathan Peterman run for 5 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-5
49.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
50.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler Boyd, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+10
51.6%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive holding (Jeremy Cash) to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
49.9%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 13
OPP 19
0
50.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+15
52.2%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Breon Borders) to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
49.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Duke 3Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
49.9%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Duke 3Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.7%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Erich Schneider for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
40.4%
Parker Boehme sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
38.3%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
37.6%
Will Monday punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Avonte Maddox at the Pitt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:5363% → 85%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
37.4%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 21Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+19
38.4%
Tyler Boyd run for 19 yds to the Pitt 48 Tyler Boyd fumbled, forced by Deondre Singleton, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
34.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+10
34.6%
Tyler Boyd run for 10 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
34.5%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
34.6%
Quadree Henderson run for 2 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-5
35.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+33
36.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Zach Challingsworth for 33 yds to the Duke 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
33.9%
Tyler Boyd run for 3 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
15.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 3:0419% → 22%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
19.1%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Joseph Ajeigbe for 11 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
19.9%
Parker Boehme run for 10 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
21.2%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete, broken up by Rori BlairSimilar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
21.0%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Anthony Nash for 8 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
21.7%
Parker Boehme run for 5 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
21.7%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Jela Duncan for 8 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
22.5%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Johnell Barnes, broken up by Lafayette PittsSimilar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+2
22.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
22.3%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Max McCaffrey, broken up by Reggie MitchellSimilar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
22.1%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-3
21.2%
Parker Boehme sacked by Mike Caprara for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 33Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+51
22.2%
Ross Martin 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5978% → 96%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
21.8%
Chris James run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+28
22.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
19.6%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+16
19.7%
Tyler Boyd run for 16 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
19.3%
Chris James run for 5 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+7
19.1%
Chris James run for 7 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
19.1%
Jordan Whitehead run for 18 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17INT
10 plays · 53 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.8%
Parker Boehme run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
5.9%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 9 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
6.1%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 5 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-3
6.3%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Shaquille Powell for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+9
5.9%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
50
+4
6.3%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 4 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
6.5%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+24
6.4%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 24 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
7.2%
Parker Boehme pass intercepted Jordan Whitehead return for no gain to the Pitt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:3496% → 98%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
4.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+7
4.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 7 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
4.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 9 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+4
4.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
4.2%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-5
4.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+1
4.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+3
4.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+1
2.0%
Ryan Winslow punt for 36 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 1 yd to the Duke 34 Ryan Smith fumbled, recovered by Pitt Nicholas GrigsbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
1.8%
Chris James run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 39 Chris James fumbled, recovered by Duke Deion WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
2.6%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
2.6%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to David Reeves, broken up by Mike CapraraSimilar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
2.5%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 10
OWN 39
-3
2.5%
Will Monday punt for 48 yds , Avonte Maddox returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4198% → 99%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
2.0%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 10Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+8
2.2%
Jordan Whitehead run for 8 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
2.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 19Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+5
1.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 56 yds , Johnell Barnes returns for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
1.8%
Parker Boehme sacked by Mike Caprara for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 17
OWN 23
0
1.8%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Terrence Alls, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+10
1.8%
Boehme, P pass complete to Nash, A for 16 yards to the DU39, PENALTY UP holding (Pitts, L.) 10 yards to the DU33, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.8%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-8
1.8%
Parker Boehme run for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 23 Parker Boehme fumbled, recovered by Pitt Mike CapraraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 12
OPP 25
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 13
OPP 26
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:34
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-18.9
TD · Q4 11:25
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q3 9:37
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com