View as
Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:18 · Cole Murphy 24 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:34: Zack Mahoney 10 Yd Run (Cole Murphy Kick) — SYR win probability +1.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:54: Deon Cain 40 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Greg Huegel Kick) — CLEM win probability +1.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:48: Zack Mahoney 12 Yd Run (Cole Murphy Kick) — SYR win probability +10.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- FG · Q4 10:18: Cole Murphy 24 Yd Field Goal — SYR win probability +5.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:58: Greg Huegel 42 Yd Field Goal — CLEM win probability +3.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 9 of 9CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 11:33SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q1 7:38SYR 4th & 11 at CLEM 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snapGo for it7.5%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call7.6%54% to makePunt7.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:35CLEM 4th & 13 at CLEM 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snapGo for it91.6%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.9%average punt
- Q2 13:38SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.6%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.0%average punt
- Q2 9:14SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 40, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q2 6:52CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 24, up 14Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snapGo for it91.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.0%−0.5average punt
- Q2 3:20SYR 4th & 12 at CLEM 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snapGo for it8.7%−0.223% to convertField goalTheir call8.9%54% to makePunt8.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:37CLEM 4th & 8 at SYR 21, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snapGo for it89.2%−0.432% to convertField goalTheir call89.6%74% to makePunt88.0%−1.6average punt
- Q3 11:56SYR 4th & 28 at SYR 17, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it7.8%−1.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q3 9:51CLEM 4th & 8 at SYR 36, up 14Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snapGo for it92.1%34% to convertField goal92.0%−0.242% to makePuntTheir call91.8%−0.4average punt
- Q3 1:31SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snapGo for it16.4%−1.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.1%average punt
- Q4 14:50CLEM 4th & 2 at SYR 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.2%57% to convertField goal82.0%−2.130% to makePunt82.6%−1.6average punt
- Q4 13:33CLEM 4th & 8 at SYR 14, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snapGo for it83.3%−0.931% to convertField goalTheir call84.2%84% to makePunt78.3%−5.9average punt
- Q4 10:18SYR 4th & 4 at CLEM 7, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.4%−0.341% to convertField goalTheir call12.7%91% to makePunt6.3%−6.4average punt
- Q4 6:58CLEM 4th & 1 at SYR 25, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snapGo for it85.7%71% to convertField goalTheir call83.1%−2.666% to makePunt76.6%−9.1average punt
- Q4 5:57SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 37, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it8.8%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 14:27CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 13:01CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:17SYR Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.8%97% to makeGo for two6.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:34SYR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.3%97% to makeGo for two10.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:05CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:54CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.4%97% to makeGo for two91.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:48SYR Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.9%97% to makeGo for two14.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1896% → 96%
SYRDrive 2FUMBLE2 plays · -2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
3.9%
Zack Mahoney run for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 23 Zack Mahoney fumbled, recovered by Clem Kevin DoddSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD6 plays · 23 yds · 1:1496% → 96%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
4.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 25Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+5
4.0%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ron Thompson) to the Syrac 20Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+11
4.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 11 yds to the Syrac 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:224% → 4%
Q1 12:06
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+2
4.2%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Josh Parris for 2 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.3%
Kelly Bryant run for 3 yds to the Clem 28 Kelly Bryant fumbled, recovered by Syrac Ron ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6TD2 plays · 28 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 34 yds · 0:4795% → 95%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
4.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 9 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
4.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 21 yds Hunter Renfrow fumbled, forced by Antwan Cordy, recovered by Syrac Marqez HodgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8MISSED FG7 plays · 23 yds · 2:325% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5595% → 94%
SYRDrive 10TD4 plays · 56 yds · 1:566% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1793% → 93%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
7.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 9 yds to the Clem 34Similar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
7.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 17 yds to the Syrac 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
7.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 9 yds to the Syrac 36Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+5
7.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 5 yds to the Syrac 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+13
7.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 13 yds to the Syrac 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+8
7.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 8 yds to the Syrac 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:227% → 7%
Q2 13:38
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
7.4%
Riley Dixon punt for 45 yds , Germone Hopper returns for no gain to the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD3 plays · 70 yds · 0:3793% → 94%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
7.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 6 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 3:316% → 7%
CLEMDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1894% → 93%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
6.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for no gain to the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16FG9 plays · 28 yds · 3:257% → 9%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
7.1%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Ben Lewis for 15 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 10
OPP 44
+15
7.1%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-3
7.8%
Zack Mahoney sacked by Shaq Lawson for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17FG13 plays · 52 yds · 2:3391% → 93%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
8.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 12 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
8.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 7 yds to the Clem 48Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
8.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 12 yds to the Syrac 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
8.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 16 yds to the Syrac 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18END OF HALF2 plays · 7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19PUNT8 plays · -7 yds · 2:517% → 7%
Q3 11:56
4TH & 28
OWN 17
0
7.1%
Riley Dixon punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Germone Hopper at the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 1:5494% → 94%
SYRDrive 21TD9 plays · 97 yds · 2:587% → 20%
CLEMDrive 22INT10 plays · 42 yds · 3:1386% → 87%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
14.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 1 yd to the Clem 15Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+19
15.2%
Deshaun Watson run for 4 yds to the Clem 21 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
13.8%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
13.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 2 yds to the Syrac 47Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+1
13.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 1 yd to the Syrac 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3617% → 17%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
17.4%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-13 Yards) to the Syrac 12Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+1
17.6%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to George Morris II for 1 yd to the Syrac 14Similar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+2
16.7%
Riley Dixon punt for 49 yds , Germone Hopper returns for 2 yds to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24FG11 plays · 47 yds · 2:5286% → 86%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
14.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
12.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 5 yds to the Syrac 23Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+7
12.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 7 yds to the Syrac 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25FG7 plays · 68 yds · 3:0413% → 21%
Q4 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+7
15.9%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Brisly Estime for 7 yds to the Clem 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26FG8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5785% → 91%
SYRDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0110% → 8%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
10.0%
CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28END OF GAME22 plays · 69 yds · 5:3092% → 98%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
8.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 1 yd to the Clem 21Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
8.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 10 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
5.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 14 yds to the Syrac 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+10
3.6%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Syrac 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+5
1.9%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Syrac 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:48
Zack Mahoney 12 Yd Run (Cole Murphy Kick)
+10.6
FG · Q4 10:18
Cole Murphy 24 Yd Field Goal
+5.7
FG · Q4 6:58
Greg Huegel 42 Yd Field Goal
-3.4