2015 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2015 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:50 · Ryan Rodwell punt for 35 yds, downed at the VTech 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:56: Travon McMillian run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +7.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:35: Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 17 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +16.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:00: Michael Brewer pass intercepted for a TD Brant Mitchell return for 32 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +15.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:58: Travon McMillian run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye PAT MISSED) — VT win probability +27.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:57: Timeout GEORGIA TECH, clock 00:57 — VT win probability +16.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 12:05VT 4th & 9 at VT 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snapGo for it34.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.6%average punt
- Q1 8:03GT 4th & 12 at VT 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it66.2%−0.124% to convertField goal66.3%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call66.3%average punt
- Q2 14:03VT 4th & 12 at VT 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snapGo for it25.7%−1.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.0%average punt
- Q2 10:35GT 4th & 5 at GT 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snapGo for it75.9%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.1%average punt
- Q2 3:50GT 4th & 10 at GT 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it69.8%−1.029% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.8%average punt
- Q3 8:42VT 4th & 3 at GT 12, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snapGo for it28.2%50% to convertField goalTheir call27.3%−0.886% to makePunt18.3%−9.9average punt
- Q3 5:02VT 4th & 23 at VT 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snapGo for it26.8%−3.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.4%average punt
- Q3 3:30GT 4th & 6 at GT 40, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snapGo for it69.8%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.3%average punt
- Q3 0:32VT 4th & 10 at GT 23, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snapGo for it29.5%−1.628% to convertField goalTheir call31.1%70% to makePunt21.7%−9.5average punt
- Q4 9:26VT 4th & 2 at VT 40, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 31.1% before the snapGo for it30.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.2%−2.2average punt
- Q4 5:42GT 4th & 6 at GT 29, down 2Close callPunted · 44.7% before the snapGo for it39.9%39% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:56VT 4th & 10 at VT 45, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snapGo for it61.7%−3.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.4%average punt
- Q4 0:43GT 4th & 27 at GT 39, down 2Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 30.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.1%−1.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt14.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 13:11GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.0%97% to makeGo for two65.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:00GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.7%97% to makeGo for two72.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:56VT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.8%97% to makeGo for two28.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:35VT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.4%97% to makeGo for two36.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:00GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.2%97% to makeGo for two71.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:58VT Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call57.3%97% to makeGo for two55.3%−2.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2756% → 57%
Q1 13:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+58
56.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 58 yds to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0243% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 23 yds · 3:4757% → 59%
VTDrive 4FUMBLE6 plays · 44 yds · 2:2841% → 40%
Q1 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+21
59.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 21 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+14
59.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 14 yds Cam Phillips fumbled, forced by Tyler Marcordes, recovered by GTech Jamal GoldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5TD8 plays · 45 yds · 4:0061% → 69%
Q1 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+13
62.5%
Justin Thomas run for 5 yds to the VTech 16 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 1:4733% → 31%
GTDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:0571% → 71%
Q2 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+5
70.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Luther Maddy) to the GTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 5
OWN 27
-4
70.9%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 44 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 23 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (Greg Stroman) to the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:3429% → 36%
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
71.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 10 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
71.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 5 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+45
72.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 45 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
70.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 3 yds to the GTech 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4067% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD10 plays · 76 yds · 2:5832% → 52%
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
66.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 8 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
65.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 4 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+13
65.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 13 yds to the GTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
62.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 6 yds to the GTech 22Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
48.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 17 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12INT TD4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3546% → 30%
Q3 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+32
69.7%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted for a TD Brant Mitchell return for 32 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13FG11 plays · 69 yds · 4:5731% → 37%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
68.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 5 yds to the VTech 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14FUMBLE7 plays · 27 yds · 2:1367% → 71%
VTDrive 15FUMBLE4 plays · -13 yds · 1:0840% → 33%
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-13
61.8%
Michael Brewer sacked by Anree Saint-Amour for a loss of 13 yards to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 23
OWN 35
+3
67.3%
A.J. Hughes punt for 37 yds , Jamal Golden returns for 3 yds to the GTech 36 Jamal Golden fumbled, recovered by GTech Lance Austin , return for 5 yds to the GTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2468% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17MISSED FG8 plays · 40 yds · 2:2837% → 36%
GTDrive 18FUMBLE11 plays · 45 yds · 4:1969% → 75%
Q4 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+15
67.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Broderick Snoddy for 15 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+5
70.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Deon Clarke) to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
75.2%
Broderick Snoddy run for 3 yds to the VTech 32 Broderick Snoddy fumbled, forced by D Nicolas, recovered by VTech Luther MaddySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0435% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20FUMBLE1 play · -2 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
70.6%
Marcus Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 18 Marcus Allen fumbled, forced by Woody Baron, recovered by VTech D NicolasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21TD5 plays · 12 yds · 2:0243% → 70%
Q4 7:50
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
59.6%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Lawrence Austin) to the GTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1246% → 41%
Q4 5:42
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
40.5%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 36 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 10 yds to the VTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2470% → 67%
Q4 3:56
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
33.0%
A.J. Hughes punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24DOWNS10 plays · 18 yds · 2:5240% → 22%
Q4 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+20
40.6%
Justin Thomas run for 5 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Deon Clarke) to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+13
38.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Isiah Willis for 13 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-15
43.9%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the GTech 39 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Errin Joe) to the GTech 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:58
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye PAT MISSED)
-27
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:57
Timeout GEORGIA TECH, clock 00:57
-16.6
TD · Q2 0:35
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 17 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
-16.5