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ND

Notre Dame 42 at Pittsburgh 30

PITT
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.5PITT 33.3%Chris Blewitt 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 3 · Q1 2:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:48 · Chris Blewitt 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Home team on offense−0.5Pregame prior−17.2Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:35: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 46 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +13.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:19: Jordan Whitehead run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +11.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:53: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 14 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +9.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:06: Jordan Whitehead run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +10.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:30: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 5 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +9.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 9:36PITT 4th & 23 at PITT 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:04ND 4th & 15 at ND 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:48PITT 4th & 4 at ND 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:45PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:17ND 4th & 14 at ND 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−1.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:05PITT 4th & 16 at PITT 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:06ND 4th & 13 at ND 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:47PITT 4th & 1 at midfield, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.8%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:48ND 4th & 1 at ND 10, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:57PITT 4th & 17 at PITT 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:42PITT 4th & 10 at ND 42, down 18
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:19PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00ND 4th & 4 at PITT 36, up 12
    Close callWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:49ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:48ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:35ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:19PITT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:53ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:06PITT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:30ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:47ND Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:44PITT Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5171% → 71%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
29.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 19 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
29.4%
C.J. Prosise run for 9 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+47
29.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 47 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 3:5630% → 30%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
29.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
29.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 6 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
29.7%
Jordan Whitehead run for 5 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-2
30.0%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+8
30.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Zach Challingsworth for 8 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-13
30.3%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Romeo Okwara for a loss of 13 yards to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 23
OWN 44
0
30.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 23
OWN 44
0
29.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to J.P. HoltzSimilar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 23
OWN 44
+9
29.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 49 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 9 yds to the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:2170% → 70%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
29.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 8 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+1
29.6%
C.J. Prosise run for 1 yd to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
29.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 3 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-9
29.7%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 9 yards to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 19
OWN 19
+4
30.0%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 15
OWN 23
0
30.3%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 15
OWN 23
+55
30.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 55 yds , Jordan Whitehead returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4FG
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0730% → 33%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+37
30.2%
Tyler Boyd run for 37 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
31.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
31.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+26
31.5%
Nathan Peterman run for 26 yds to the NDame 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
32.1%
Tyler Boyd run for 3 yds to the NDame 4Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
32.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q1 2:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
31.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
33.3%
Chris Blewitt 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5267% → 74%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
32.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 11 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
32.4%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Lafayette Pitts for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 33 DeShone Kizer fumbled, forced by Lafayette Pitts, recovered by NDame C.J. Prosise , return for 2 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+10
33.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 10 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+10
32.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 10 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
32.3%
Josh Adams run for 25 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
31.9%
Kizer, DeShone pass incomplete to Fuller, Will, PENALTY NOTREDAME ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the PITTSBURGH27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 15
OPP 27
-1
32.2%
DeShone Kizer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 16
OPP 28
+15
32.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 15 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+1
32.6%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
26.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 12 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4728% → 27%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
27.7%
Chris James run for 6 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
27.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to J.P. HoltzSimilar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
27.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to J.P. HoltzSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
26.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 40 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for no gain to the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1973% → 72%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
26.8%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
26.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-7
27.2%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 31 Josh Adams fumbled, recovered by NDame Josh AdamsSimilar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+11
28.4%
Tyler Newsome punt for 40 yds , Avonte Maddox returns for 11 yds to the Pitt 40 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:0428% → 27%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
28.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-10
27.9%
James, Chris rush for 5 yards to the PITTSBURGH35, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+4
27.7%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 16
OWN 24
0
27.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Chris JamesSimilar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
26.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 41 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5473% → 71%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
27.7%
DeShone Kizer run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
28.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+17
28.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 57 yds , Avonte Maddox returns for 17 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10INT
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:0227% → 29%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
26.9%
Jordan Whitehead run for 9 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
27.4%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
27.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
27.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 1
50
0
27.9%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 1
50
+2
27.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+27
28.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 27 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
28.9%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted Matthias Farley return for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0273% → 73%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
27.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the NDame 3Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+6
27.1%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+1
27.6%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+1
27.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 55 yds , Avonte Maddox returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:2526% → 24%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
26.1%
Nathan Peterman sacked by James Onwualu for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
25.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to J.P. HoltzSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 17
OWN 29
0
24.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+9
23.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 50 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 9 yds to the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:1774% → 87%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
25.8%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+24
25.8%
Josh Adams run for 24 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
12.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 46 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:3716% → 17%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+42
16.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 27 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
18.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to J.P. HoltzSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
17.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Zach ChallingsworthSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
17.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
17.0%
Ryan Winslow punt for 39 yds, downed at the NDame 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
13.2%
DeShone Kizer run for 3 yds to the NDame 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:3415% → 27%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
15.1%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 18Similar
Q3 14:37
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+2
14.9%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 13
OWN 20
0
14.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+21
14.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 21 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
15.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+6
14.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 6 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
15.1%
Tyler Boyd run for 2 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+37
14.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 37 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
26.7%
Jordan Whitehead run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1677% → 91%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
23.0%
DeShone Kizer run for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+23
21.8%
Josh Adams run for 23 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
20.9%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
20.0%
Josh Adams run for 8 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
19.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 19 yds to the Pitt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
19.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Nic WeisharSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
19.0%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the Pitt 14Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
9.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 14 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3612% → 22%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
11.5%
Nathan Peterman run for 20 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
12.7%
Tyler Boyd pass incomplete to Zach ChallingsworthSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
12.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 6
50
+24
12.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 24 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
13.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
13.0%
Nathan Peterman run for 10 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
13.0%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 17Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+10
12.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 10 yds to the NDame 7Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
12.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
12.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the NDame 3Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
11.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to George AstonSimilar
Q3 2:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.8%
Jordan Whitehead run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:1283% → 96%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
50
-1
17.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 49Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+4
17.3%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+13
15.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 13 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
15.2%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+12
15.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Robinson for 12 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+6
15.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 6 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
13.7%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+12
13.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 12 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
4.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 5 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:036% → 5%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Chris James for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
5.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
5.1%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Romeo Okwara for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
4.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 37 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:1096% → 100%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
3.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+12
3.8%
Josh Adams run for 12 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+12
3.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 12 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
3.2%
Josh Adams run for 8 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+6
3.1%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
3.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 6 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+3
2.7%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+7
2.3%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
1.9%
Josh Adams run for 9 yds to the Pitt 2Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:440% → 2%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
0.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 21 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
0.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 4 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+51
2.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 51 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23FUMBLE TD
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:5198% → 98%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
1.7%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+17
1.7%
Brandon Wimbush run for 17 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
1.3%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
1.2%
Brandon Wimbush run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+32
1.9%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Matt Galambos for a loss of 12 yards Brandon Wimbush fumbled, forced by Ejuan Price, recovered by Pitt Ejuan Price , return for 0 yards , return for 32 yds, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3898% → 98%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
1.8%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+3
1.8%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+2
1.7%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
1.8%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:35
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 46 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-13
TD · Q3 11:19
Jordan Whitehead run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q3 2:06
Jordan Whitehead run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com