Try the model
UVA

Virginia 21 at Miami 27

MIA
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYFGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of GameFG-9MIA 87.3%Ian Frye 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 21 - HOME 27 · Q4 0:35
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:35 · Ian Frye 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 178Pregame prior+0.2Home team on offense+17.7Garbage-time factor+6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.5Score differential−1.9Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:17: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 67 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +7.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:28: Olamide Zaccheaus run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +16.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:52: Mark Walton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +13.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:08: Ian Frye 36 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +7.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:35: Ian Frye 47 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +9.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 9 at MIA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:31MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:12UVA 4th & 8 at MIA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:25UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:49UVA 4th & 8 at MIA 8, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:20UVA 4th & 15 at UVA 20, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:19MIA 4th & 4 at UVA 17, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−7.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:08MIA 4th & 2 at UVA 11, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%−2.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−16.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:08UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 37, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−3.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:15MIA 4th & 18 at UVA 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−4.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:35UVA 4th & 3 at MIA 30, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%−0.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:25MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:17MIA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:28UVA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:52MIA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Jay Whitmire) to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
73.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
73.9%
Matt Johns run for 4 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+28
73.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 28 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
73.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-1
73.9%
Matt Johns sacked by Tyriq McCord for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
73.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
73.9%
Nicholas Conte punt for 37 yds, downed at the MiaFl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+33
73.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 33 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
73.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
73.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-5
73.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Brad Kaaya) to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-5
73.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
73.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete, broken up by Darious LatimoreSimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
73.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 50 yds, downed at the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
72.7%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 15 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
72.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
72.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
72.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
72.4%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
72.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
72.2%
Albert Reid run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
72.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
72.3%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Charlie HopkinsSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
72.7%
Nicholas Conte punt for 42 yds, downed at the MiaFl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
18 plays · 95 yds · 6:3772% → 76%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
71.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+5
71.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb Waters, PENALTY VA OFF (Corney, T) 5 yards to the UM12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+1
71.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+20
71.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 20 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
71.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
71.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+17
71.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 17 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
72.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 5 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+15
72.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 15 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
72.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 7 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
72.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+5
72.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Tyre Brady, PENALTY VA OFF 5 yards to the VA16, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
72.8%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 3
OPP 9
-1
72.8%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+4
71.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 4 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
72.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 1 yd to the Virg 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.4%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the Virg 5Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.8%
Albert Reid run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
74.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the Virg 29 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
75.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 16 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
74.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
74.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Charlie HopkinsSimilar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 12
OWN 43
+3
75.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 44 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46 MIAMI FL Penalty, illegal block (8 Yards) to the MiaFl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6SF
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
71.6%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7FG
16 plays · 66 yds · 6:1628% → 31%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
71.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+19
71.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 19 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
70.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 8 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-15
69.9%
Mizzell, T rush for 7 yards to the UM36 (Tracy Howard;Juwon Young), PENALTY VA illegal block (Whitmire, J) 15 yards to the VA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+19
71.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 19 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
70.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+6
69.3%
Matt Johns run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
69.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 4 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+13
69.3%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, face mask (9 yards) (Ufomba Kamalu) to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Albert Reid, broken up by Al-Quadin MuhammadSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
72.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 1 yd to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
68.9%
Ian Frye 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3271% → 78%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
70.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
70.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 11 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
77.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 67 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:5722% → 21%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
78.2%
Matt Johns sacked by Trent Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-5
78.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+1
78.5%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+6
79.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 6 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+2
79.2%
Nicholas Conte punt for 40 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 2 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
79.3%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Darious Latimore return for 8 yds to the 50 yard line VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (David Dean) to the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:5623% → 25%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
77.5%
Matt Johns run for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+18
77.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 18 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
75.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 2 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+15
77.4%
Johns, M pass incomplete to Severin, C, PENALTY UM pass interference (Deon Bush) 15 yards to the UM31, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
76.3%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Evan Butts, broken up by Jermaine GraceSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
76.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for no gain to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+48
75.1%
Ian Frye 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Trevor Darling) to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
75.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 6 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
75.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 18 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
77.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-7
77.9%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
75.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for no gain to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
74.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Olamide Zaccheaus at the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
73.7%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+2
74.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
75.1%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Jaquan Johnson return for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1178% → 77%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
78.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+10
78.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
78.5%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+9
78.2%
Brad Kaaya run for 9 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
77.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
76.5%
Michael Badgley 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:5126% → 48%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
73.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 25 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
71.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 5
50
+27
70.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 27 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
68.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+13
68.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 13 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.3%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:2059% → 69%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
59.4%
Mark Walton run for 26 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+30
63.8%
Mark Walton run for 15 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Quin Blanding) to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
65.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 5 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-2
65.5%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+5
63.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 5 yds to the Virg 11Similar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+28
68.8%
Michael Badgley 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
66.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
65.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 12 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
63.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Daniel HammSimilar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
64.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-2
66.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Albert Reid for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
68.7%
Nicholas Conte punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:5068% → 86%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
67.5%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+7
67.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 7 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
67.9%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+58
68.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 58 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
72.7%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.7%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.2%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 5:4415% → 19%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
83.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
83.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 18 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
82.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+6
81.7%
Daniel Hamm run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
81.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Evan Butts for 18 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
80.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+7
80.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
80.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
86.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
87.9%
Johns, M pass complete to Severin, C for 4 yards to the UM0, clock 07:21, PENALTY VA pass interference (Hopkins, C) 15 yards to the UM19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
89.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Evan Butts, broken up by Deon BushSimilar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+36
81.5%
Ian Frye 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 4:5388% → 95%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
88.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 13 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
88.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
89.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+23
88.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 23 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
89.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
90.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+10
90.4%
Herb Waters run for 10 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
90.4%
Brad Kaaya run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 18 Brad Kaaya fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Joseph YearbySimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 14
OPP 18
0
94.6%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the Virg 18Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 14
OPP 18
-5
94.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Herb Waters) to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 19
OPP 23
+1
94.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the Virg 22Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 18
OPP 22
+39
95.0%
Michael Badgley 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 1:403% → 13%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
96.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
96.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
97.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Evan Butts for 11 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
96.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 17 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
96.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
96.2%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+8
96.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 8 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+47
87.3%
Ian Frye 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:28
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
-16.3
TD · Q4 12:52
Mark Walton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+13.5
FG · Q4 0:35
Ian Frye 47 yd FG GOOD
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com