Try the model
SYR

Syracuse 17 at Louisville 41

LOU
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreSYR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:20 · Joshua Appleby punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior+20.6Home team on offense−1.4Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:14: Cole Murphy 36 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +3.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:42: Eric Dungey pass intercepted for a TD Trumaine Washington return for 39 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +5.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 1:23: Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 13 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +7.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:25: Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 10 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +8.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:42: John Wallace 19 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +2.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7SYR made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 13:19SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:14LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:07SYR 4th & 1 at LOU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.4%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:14SYR 4th & 9 at LOU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:56SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:20LOU 4th & 17 at LOU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:42SYR 4th & 4 at SYR 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:32LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.7%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:10SYR 4th & 15 at SYR 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:45LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 48, up 11
    Close callPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:22SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:12SYR 4th & 5 at LOU 35, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:25SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 37, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:42LOU 4th & 4 at SYR 47, up 18
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:11SYR 4th & 4 at SYR 20, down 18
    Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:42LOU 4th & 2 at SYR 2, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−3.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00SYR 4th & 8 at LOU 15, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−2.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:32LOU 4th & 9 at SYR 9, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:32SYR 4th & 20 at SYR 15, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:26SYR 4th & 9 at LOU 9, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SYR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:19LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:14SYR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:42LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:23LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:25LOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:51LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:26SYR Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4180% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 8 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+52
80.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to L.J. Scott for 52 yds to the Syrac 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
80.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 11 yds to the Syrac 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
80.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
80.1%
Jordan Fredericks run for 2 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-3
80.1%
Eric Dungey sacked by Trevon Young and Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 21Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+3
80.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Josh Parris for 3 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
80.2%
Riley Dixon punt for 34 yds, downed at the Lvile 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
80.4%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
80.3%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+18
80.2%
Kyle Bolin pass intercepted Cordell Hudson return for 18 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:3620% → 22%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+36
79.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Brisly Estime for 36 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
78.4%
Ervin Philips run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.0%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
78.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 9 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
79.0%
L.J. Scott run for no gain to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
78.8%
Joshua Appleby punt for 47 yds , Brisly Estime returns for no gain to the Syrac 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6FG
17 plays · 62 yds · 7:5322% → 26%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
78.2%
Ervin Philips run for 3 yds to the Syrac 23Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
78.2%
Jordan Fredericks run for 8 yds to the Syrac 31 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
78.1%
Eric Dungey run for 3 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-1
78.1%
Ervin Philips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 33Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+22
78.3%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 22 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
77.7%
George Morris II run for 3 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
77.7%
Dontae Strickland run for 1 yd to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-5
77.8%
SYRACUSE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+10
78.0%
Eric Dungey run for 10 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
78.0%
Eric Dungey run for 3 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
77.6%
Jordan Fredericks run for 2 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
77.6%
Jordan Fredericks run for 7 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+5
77.7%
Eric Dungey run for 5 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
77.5%
Ervin Philips run for 1 yd to the Lvile 18Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
77.5%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Ervin PhilipsSimilar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
77.8%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Brisly EstimeSimilar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+36
74.1%
Cole Murphy 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FUMBLE
12 plays · 72 yds · 0:1474% → 76%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
74.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
74.1%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 9 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
74.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 6 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
74.3%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 24 yds to the Syrac 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
75.6%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
75.5%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 11 yds to the Syrac 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
76.0%
Jeremy Smith run for 11 yds to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
76.0%
Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Syrac 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+6
76.0%
Jeremy Smith run for 6 yds to the Syrac 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
76.0%
Jeremy Smith run for 4 yds to the Syrac 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
76.0%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Syrac 3 Jeremy Smith fumbled, forced by Zaire Franklin, recovered by Syrac Steven ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
72.1%
Jordan Fredericks run for 2 yds to the Syrac 5Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
72.2%
Eric Dungey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+1
72.7%
Jordan Fredericks run for 1 yd to the Syrac 6 Jordan Fredericks fumbled, forced by Keith Kelsey,Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
73.2%
Riley Dixon punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0073% → 70%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
73.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Syrac 44Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
73.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
73.0%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jamari Staples, broken up by Chris SlaytonSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-15
72.1%
Bolin, K. slant pass complete to Staples, J. for 11 yards to the SU29 (Whitner, K.;Dowels, J.), PENALTY LOU pass interference (Crum, M.) 15 yards to the LOU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
70.2%
Joshua Appleby punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10INT TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:5231% → 26%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
69.0%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Brisly Estime, broken up by Shaq WigginsSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
69.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Josh Parris for 9 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
68.9%
Jordan Fredericks run for 3 yds to the Syrac 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
68.7%
Ervin Philips run for 9 yds to the Syrac 36Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+39
74.0%
Eric Dungey pass intercepted for a TD Trumaine Washington return for 39 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
73.8%
Jordan Fredericks run for 2 yds to the Syrac 43Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
73.7%
Eric Dungey run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 1
50
-3
73.3%
Eric Dungey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 47Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
74.8%
Riley Dixon punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 2:0975% → 86%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
75.3%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 13 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
75.5%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to James Quick for 16 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
76.7%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Donnie Simmons for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 18
OWN 32
0
75.3%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Kielan WhitnerSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+16
74.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 16 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+32
75.6%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 32 yds to the Syrac 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
77.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to James Quick for 7 yds to the Syrac 13Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+13
85.6%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 13 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 0:1316% → 16%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.9%
SYRACUSE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 20Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
83.8%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Ervin Philips, broken up by Pio VatuveiSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
84.0%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Brisly Estime, broken up by Trevon YoungSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-5
84.5%
SYRACUSE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 15Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+5
84.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 5 yds to the Syrac 20Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
84.5%
Riley Dixon punt for 40 yds , Alphonso Carter returns for no gain to the Lvile 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:1785% → 84%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
84.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to L.J. Scott for 5 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-5
84.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Jaylen Smith) to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
84.6%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+8
83.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 8 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
83.9%
Joshua Appleby punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:1616% → 16%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
83.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Josh Parris for 4 yds to the Syrac 17Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
83.7%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Ervin PhilipsSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+5
84.3%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Josh Parris for 5 yds to the Syrac 22Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
84.0%
Riley Dixon punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Alphonso Carter at the Lvile 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
85.3%
L.J. Scott run for 11 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+26
85.5%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 26 yds to the Syrac 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17MISSED FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:4816% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
83.8%
Jordan Fredericks run for 2 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
83.8%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Brisly EstimeSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+30
84.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 30 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
82.5%
Ervin Philips run for 4 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
82.3%
Eric Dungey run for 1 yd to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
82.7%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Steve IshmaelSimilar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+52
83.9%
Cole Murphy 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:4785% → 94%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+18
85.3%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to James Quick for 18 yds to the Syrac 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
85.8%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
85.7%
Jeremy Smith run for 11 yds to the Syrac 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+23
85.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to James Quick for 23 yds to the Syrac 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
85.7%
L.J. Scott run for 5 yds to the Syrac 5 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Keith Towbridge) to the Syrac 15Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+5
85.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 5 yds to the Syrac 10Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.7%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
94.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 10 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
92.5%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Brisly Estime, broken up by Shaq WigginsSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
92.8%
Dontae Strickland run for 1 yd to the Syrac 29Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+8
92.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 8 yds to the Syrac 37Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
92.3%
Riley Dixon punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Alphonso Carter at the Lvile 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
94.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 19Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+28
94.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 28 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
94.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+8
94.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to James Quick for 8 yds to the Syrac 47Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
94.6%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
94.2%
Joshua Appleby punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
94.1%
Eric Dungey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+8
94.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 8 yds to the Syrac 22Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 2
OWN 22
-2
94.0%
Eric Dungey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 20Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
94.2%
Riley Dixon punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Alphonso Carter at the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22FG
6 plays · 70 yds · 3:0295% → 98%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+46
95.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 46 yds to the Syrac 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
95.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 16 yds to the Syrac 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
95.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Syrac 3Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
95.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 4Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
95.6%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Syrac 2Similar
Q3 0:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
98.2%
John Wallace 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:422% → 2%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
97.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 17 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
97.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 8 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+18
97.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Josh Parris for 3 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, roughing passer (Sheldon Rankins) to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
97.9%
Devante McFarlane run for no gain to the Lvile 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
98.0%
Eric Dungey run for 2 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
98.2%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Dontae StricklandSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 15
-1
98.3%
Riley Dixon pass complete to Ron Thompson for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
98.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 17 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
98.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 7 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+25
98.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 25 yds to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
98.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 40Similar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+5
98.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 5 yds to the Syrac 35Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
98.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 9 yds Jaylen Smith fumbled, forced by Kielan Whitner, recovered by Syrac Steven ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
98.8%
Eric Dungey run for 4 yds to the Syrac 12 Eric Dungey fumbled, forced by Devonte Fields, recovered by Lvile James Burgess , return for 31 yds to the Syrac 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 12 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Devante McFarlane run for 4 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+27
99.9%
Eric Dungey pass intercepted Trevon Young return for 27 yds to the Syrac 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28FG
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
99.9%
Corvin Lamb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 7Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
99.9%
Lamb, C. rush up middle for 7 yards to the SU0, clock 08:24, PENALTY LOU holding (Standberry, C.) 10 yards to the SU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+8
99.9%
L.J. Scott run for 8 yds to the Syrac 9Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete, broken up by Steven ClarkSimilar
Q4 7:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
99.9%
John Wallace 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Josh ParrisSimilar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to George Morris II for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 22Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-7
99.9%
Eric Dungey sacked by Trumaine Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 15Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Riley Dixon punt for 45 yds , Alphonso Carter returns for no gain to the Lvile 38 Alphonso Carter fumbled, recovered by Syrac Ben LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 30TD
13 plays · 38 yds · 5:190% → 1%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.9%
Dungey, E. sideline pass complete to Ishmael, S. for 20 yards to the LOU18 (Culver, D.), PENALTY SU ineligible downfield on pass (Trudo, R.) 5 yards to the LOU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 3 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+16
99.9%
Eric Dungey run for 16 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.9%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Alvin Cornelius for 4 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+14
99.9%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Alvin Cornelius for 14 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Ervin PhilipsSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Steve Ishmael, broken up by Pat ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Alvin CorneliusSimilar
Q4 5:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
Mahoney, Z. sideline pass incomplete to Ishmael, S., PENALTY LOU pass interference (Culver, D.) 4 yards to the LOU2, 1ST DOWN SU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
99.9%
Zack Mahoney run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 3Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Zack Mahoney run for no gain to the Lvile 3Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
99.9%
George Morris II run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.4%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
99.8%
L.J. Scott run for 12 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.8%
Malin Jones run for 2 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:25
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 10 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q2 1:23
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 13 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+7.8
TD · Q2 5:42
Eric Dungey pass intercepted for a TD Trumaine Washington return for 39 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com