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DUKE

Duke 31 at North Carolina 66

UNC
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:07 · Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 10 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Home team on offense+34.9Pregame prior+6.6Score differential+25.1Blowout margin+10.5Garbage-time factor+12.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:14: Marquise Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +1.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:27: Elijah Hood run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +5.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:04: Jela Duncan run for 52 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +6.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:30: Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 74 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +10.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:01: Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 49 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:05DUKE 4th & 4 at UNC 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:45UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:40UNC 4th & 1 at DUKE 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.1%−1.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:40UNC 4th & 1 at DUKE 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:23DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 4, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:26UNC 4th & 3 at DUKE 18, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:26DUKE 4th & 4 at UNC 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:19DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 43, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:07UNC 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:50DUKE 4th & 8 at UNC 40, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:37UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 15, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 9 of 9DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:42UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:14UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:27UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:04DUKE Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:30UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:01UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:19UNC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:38DUKE Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:37UNC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:47UNC Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:41DUKE Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 10:50UNC Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:56DUKE Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
76.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 7 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
76.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+7
76.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 7 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
76.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
76.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 4 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
76.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
76.7%
Will Monday punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
76.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 89 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:3723% → 24%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.8%
Jela Duncan run for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
76.7%
Jela Duncan run for 7 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
76.7%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
76.7%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+34
76.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 34 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
76.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 8 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+6
76.5%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
76.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the NCaro 4Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
76.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q1 12:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
76.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q1 9:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
75.9%
Ross Martin 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5176% → 78%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.8%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
75.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 17 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
76.2%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+49
76.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 49 yds to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
76.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q1 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.1%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FUMBLE
11 plays · 45 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
77.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 12 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
77.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 9 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
76.8%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
50
+9
76.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 9 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+4
76.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 4 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
76.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
76.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+5
76.7%
Thomas Sirk middle pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 4 yards to the NC28 (Malik Simmons), PENALTY NC offside defense (Mikey Bart) 5 yards to the NC27, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
76.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-2
76.6%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 30 Joseph Ajeigbe fumbled, forced by Jeff Schoettmer, recovered by NCaro Jeff SchoettmerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 2:5678% → 84%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
78.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
78.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 10 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
78.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 2 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
78.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 6 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
78.3%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
78.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Lucas Crowley) to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
78.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+36
78.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 36 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
78.7%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+13
78.7%
Ryan Switzer run for 13 yds to the Duke 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
78.6%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the Duke 4Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.8%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2717% → 16%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 15 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
83.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-2
82.7%
Shaquille Powell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
83.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
83.9%
Will Monday punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0684% → 84%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
84.1%
T.J. Logan run for 13 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
84.2%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
84.5%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-6
84.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+32
83.5%
Joey Mangili punt for 42 yds, downed at the UNC 24 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (Mack Hollins) to the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:3016% → 23%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
83.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 14 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
77.3%
Jela Duncan run for 52 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10DOWNS
16 plays · 74 yds · 2:2479% → 80%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.3%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
79.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 11 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
80.2%
Romar Morris run for 2 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+23
80.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 23 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
80.5%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
80.4%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
80.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+4
80.1%
Nick Weiler field goal attempt from 47 MISSED - hit right upright,, clock 09:40, PENALTY DU offside defense (Jeremy Cash) 4 yards to the DU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
80.3%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
81.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+10
81.2%
Marquise Williams run for 10 yds to the Duke 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
81.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
81.2%
Elijah Hood run for 9 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.7%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.2%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
80.0%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Duke 2Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
80.1%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
80.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
81.0%
Will Monday punt for 35 yds, downed at the Duke 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3682% → 83%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
81.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 14 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
81.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 4 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
81.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
81.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
82.6%
Nick Weiler 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 15 yds to the Duke 40 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+16
82.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 16 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
81.8%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-5
81.5%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Justin Thomason for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+8
82.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 8 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
82.3%
Will Monday punt for 40 yds, downed at the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
3 plays · 92 yds · 0:4183% → 94%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
83.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+15
83.7%
Marquise Williams sideline pass incomplete to Ryan Switzer, PENALTY DU pass interference (Phillip Carter) 15 yards to the NC26, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
94.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 74 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15INT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:518% → 8%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
92.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 6 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
92.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
92.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 8 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
91.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
50
0
92.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
50
+14
92.8%
Thomas Sirk I pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, PENALTY NC pass interference (Malik Simmons) 14 yards to the NC36, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
92.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton Deaver, broken up by Junior GnonkondeSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+12
92.3%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted Dominquie Green return for 12 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:1895% → 99%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
95.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 16 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
95.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+49
98.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 49 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4199% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.5%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
98.5%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
98.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 16 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad Davis, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
98.6%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+25
98.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 25 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
98.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete, QB hurry by Dwayne Norman, PENALTY DU face mask (Marquies Price) 15 yards to the DU16, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.1%
Elijah Hood run for 16 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) DUKE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:411% → 1%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Jela Duncan run for no gain to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 9 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
98.9%
Thomas Sirk run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+4
98.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 4 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
99.0%
Thomas Sirk run for 53 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:5999% → 100%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+36
99.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 36 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.2%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+1
99.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 1 yd to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
99.0%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.2%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
99.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
99.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21INT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
99.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 14 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, broken up by Malik SimmonsSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-10
99.5%
Thomas Sirk rush quarterback draw for 11 yards to the NC44 (Donnie Miles), PENALTY DU holding (Tanner Stone) 10 yards to the DU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+21
99.5%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted Des Lawrence return for 21 yds to the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
99.5%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+7
99.5%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+6
99.5%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the Duke 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:060% → 0%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 7 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 8 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
99.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+10
99.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 10 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
99.6%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+18
99.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 18 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
99.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffrey, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+26
99.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 26 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:51100% → 100%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.7%
Ty'Son Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.7%
Ty'Son Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
99.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Fieulleteau for 20 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.7%
Ty'Son Williams run for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 4 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
99.8%
Ty'Son Williams run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+10
99.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 10 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.8%
Ty'Son Williams run for no gain to the Duke 24Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Dalton Stogner for 6 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+11
99.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Dalton Stogner for 3 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, roughing passer (Jeremy Cash) to the Duke 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.8%
Ty'Son Williams run for 4 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.8%
Ty'Son Williams run for 1 yd to the Duke 2Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:540% → 0%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Parker Boehme run for 8 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Parker Boehme run for 6 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+7
99.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 7 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.9%
Parker Boehme run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Parker Boehme run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Parker Boehme pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+11
99.9%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Terrence Alls for 11 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
99.8%
Jela Duncan run for 20 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
Jela Duncan rush left for no gain to the NC9 (Junior Gnonkonde;Jeremiah Clarke), PENALTY NC face mask (Junior Gnonkonde) 5 yards to the NC4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Erich Schneider for 4 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
99.9%
Ty'Son Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+2
99.9%
Ty'Son Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+5
99.9%
Ty'Son Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Joey Mangili punt for 49 yds, downed at the Duke 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 5 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 5 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 5 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+8
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 8 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:30
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 74 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q2 12:04
Jela Duncan run for 52 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
-6.5
TD · Q1 1:27
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com