Try the model
MIA

Miami 30 at Duke 27

DUKE
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Wallace Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDSAFETYTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+23.3DUKE 32.2%Johnell Barnes 13 Yd pass from ThomasSirk (Ross Martin Kick)AWAY 24 - HOME 19 · Q4 2:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:40 · Johnell Barnes 13 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Ross Martin Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 191Home team on offense−9.8Pregame prior+0.7Garbage-time factor−9.8Score differential−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:51: Jela Duncan 24 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick) — DUKE win probability +15.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q4 11:02: Stacy Coley 19 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +17.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:40: Johnell Barnes 13 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Ross Martin Kick) — DUKE win probability +23.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:06: Thomas Sirk 1 Yd Run (Thomas Sirk Run for Two-Point Conversion) — DUKE win probability +75.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Ross Martin kickoff for 39 yds , Dallas Crawford return for a loss of 5 yards , Corn Elder return for 1 yd , Jaquan Johnson return for a loss of 7 yards , Mark Walton return for 7 yds , Jaquan Johnson return for a loss of 4 yards , Tyre Brady return for a loss of 8 yards , Corn Elder return for a loss of 7 yards , Dallas Crawford return for 6 yds , Corn Elder return for 91 yds for a TD — MIA win probability +82.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:01DUKE 4th & 1 at MIA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:47MIA 4th & 22 at MIA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:44DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:32MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:01DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:22DUKE 4th & 9 at MIA 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:56MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:14DUKE 4th & 5 at MIA 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−1.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:19MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:56DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:53DUKE 4th & 6 at MIA 45, down 2
    Close callPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−4.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:24DUKE 4th & 3 at MIA 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.9%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:54MIA 4th & 14 at DUKE 20, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−8.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:00DUKE 4th & 8 at MIA 40, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:50MIA 4th & 7 at DUKE 45, up 5
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    85.2%−1.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 11:54MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:18MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:51DUKE Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:02MIA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:40DUKE Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:06DUKE Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    80.7%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4466% → 66%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
66.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 12 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
66.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
66.3%
Shaquille Powell run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
66.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Terrence Alls for 4 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.2%
Parker Boehme run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
13 plays · 45 yds · 6:1334% → 34%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
66.1%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
66.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+14
66.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Herb Waters for 14 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
65.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
65.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
65.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+6
65.3%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mike Ramsay) to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
65.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to David Njoku for 3 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
65.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 9 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
64.8%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-7
64.7%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 15
OPP 47
-7
65.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mark Walton for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 22
OWN 46
0
65.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds, downed at the Duke 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4665% → 65%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
65.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Erich Schneider for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+3
65.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+10
64.8%
Sirk, Thomas pass incomplete to Barnes, Johnell, PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Burns, Artie) 10 yards to the DUKE33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
65.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
65.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
65.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
64.8%
Will Monday punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Corn Elder at the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 18 yds · 3:4835% → 36%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
64.7%
Malik Rosier run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+9
64.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+9
64.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 9 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
63.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
63.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-4
63.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+5
63.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
50
0
62.6%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
50
0
62.7%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 10
50
0
63.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 10
50
-5
64.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Herb Waters) to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
64.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:2765% → 66%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
64.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
64.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+15
65.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 15 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
66.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+31
66.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 31 yds Max McCaffrey fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Rayshawn JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 1:5636% → 45%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+23
63.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Herb Waters for 23 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
62.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
62.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+26
62.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to David Njoku for 26 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
54.6%
Herb Waters 33 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4957% → 55%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
56.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
56.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 5 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
55.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
55.3%
Will Monday punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:4246% → 58%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
54.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Stacy Coley for 11 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
53.4%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
52.9%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+19
53.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Stacy Coley for 19 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.3%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.3%
Sunny Odogwu 0 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9FG
21 plays · 69 yds · 4:4844% → 45%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
44.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
43.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+15
43.8%
Sirk, Thomas pass incomplete to McCaffrey, Max, PENALTY MIAMIFL personal foul (Burns, Artie) 15 yards to the DUKE44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
45.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+6
45.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Terrence Alls for 6 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
45.2%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+2
44.9%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+6
44.4%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
44.8%
Duncan, Jela rush for 2 yards to the MIAMIFL29, PENALTY MIAMIFL substitution infraction 5 yards to the MIAMIFL26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 5
OPP 26
-5
44.7%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Gabe Brandner) to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
44.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 4 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+7
44.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
43.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+4
43.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+4
44.3%
Powell, Shaquille rush for no gain to the MIAMIFL8, PENALTY MIAMIFL offside 4 yards to the MIAMIFL4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
42.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 0
OPP 4
-5
44.1%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
42.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q2 3:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
41.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell Barnes, broken up by Corn ElderSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
44.9%
Ross Martin 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:0455% → 58%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
44.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
44.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
43.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 9 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 42
-15
41.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (Kc McDermott) to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 16
OWN 27
0
41.5%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+8
42.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 8 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 8
OWN 35
-5
41.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Jamal Carter) to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+7
41.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 54 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 7 yds to the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 0:4941% → 43%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
40.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 4 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
41.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+11
40.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 11 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
42.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 4 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+16
42.5%
Sirk, Thomas pass incomplete to Nash, Anthony (Howard, Tracy), PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Howard, Tracy) 16 yards to the MIAMIFL42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
43.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 10 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
44.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 7 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+5
43.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 5 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+38
43.2%
Ross Martin 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
39.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0441% → 59%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
40.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
39.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 14 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
41.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+19
42.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 19 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
44.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+7
43.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 7 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
59.2%
Jela Duncan 24 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14INT
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:5348% → 51%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
52.4%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+10
52.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+1
52.8%
Malik Rosier run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
51.5%
Waters, Herb rush for 4 yards to the MIAMIFL24, PENALTY MIAMIFL holding (Linder, Nick) 10 yards to the MIAMIFL10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
51.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for no gain to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+20
51.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 20 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
50.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+32
49.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Stacy Coley for 32 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
46.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Stacy Coley) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
50
-3
47.4%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+35
48.8%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted Jeremy McDuffie return for 25 yds to the DUKE 28 DUKE Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1153% → 52%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
53.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
54.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
54.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
54.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
53.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+3
51.6%
Will Monday run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3654% → 51%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
46.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
45.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Stacy Coley, broken up by DeVon EdwardsSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
46.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+1
49.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 43 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 1 yd to the Duke 20 Ryan Smith fumbled, recovered by Duke Ryan SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0448% → 44%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
48.3%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
48.1%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
47.9%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
47.5%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+2
45.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
44.2%
Will Monday punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18SF
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:3357% → 49%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
42.9%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-13
50.7%
Malik Rosier sacked by Marquies Price for a loss of 13 yards for a SAFETY MIAMI FL Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Malik Rosier) to the MiaFl 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0757% → 54%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
57.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
57.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+2
57.8%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
57.4%
Shaquille Powell run for no gain to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+4
53.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 4 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
53.9%
Will Monday punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Corn Elder at the MiaFl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:4852% → 79%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
47.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Stacy Coley for 6 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+27
47.2%
Mark Walton run for 27 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
42.3%
Mark Walton run for 9 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+15
40.7%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Alonzo Saxton II) to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
39.6%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
38.9%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+4
40.6%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
38.3%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the Duke 19Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
20.8%
Stacy Coley 19 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:3125% → 21%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
25.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 6 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+14
22.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 14 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
23.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
24.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 2 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
23.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
20.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, broken up by Artie BurnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:2683% → 91%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
17.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
15.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+31
15.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 31 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mike Ramsay) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
14.0%
Malik Rosier run for 3 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-5
13.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 18Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 12
OPP 18
-6
12.8%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 24Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 18
OPP 24
+4
12.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+37
8.8%
Michael Badgley 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 3:1310% → 32%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+5
10.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
9.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
9.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
9.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 6 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
10.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 7 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+5
11.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
11.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Erich Schneider for 2 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
10.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Erich Schneider, broken up by Artie BurnsSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
9.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+13
8.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 13 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
9.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Erich Schneider for 2 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-6
9.3%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Al-Quadin Muhammad for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+15
7.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Terrence Alls for 15 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
8.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 3 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
32.2%
Johnell Barnes 13 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:4489% → 91%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
10.8%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-3
10.7%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+7
8.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Herb Waters for 7 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
9.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 1:3917% → 95%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
17.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Terrence Alls for 11 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
15.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton Deaver, broken up by Rayshawn JenkinsSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+13
15.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 13 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
16.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Artie Burns) to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
17.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
16.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Terrence AllsSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+15
13.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 15 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
18.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
18.3%
Sirk, Thomas pass incomplete to McCaffrey, Max (Elder, Corn), PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Elder, Corn) 8 yards to the MIAMIFL26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
21.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Corn Elder) to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
21.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Terrence Alls for 9 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+1
19.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.4%
Thomas Sirk 1 Yd Run (Thomas Sirk Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Ross Martin kickoff for 39 yds , Dallas Crawford return for a loss of 5 yards , Corn Elder return for 1 yd , Jaquan Johnson return for a loss of 7 yards , Mark Walton return for 7 yds , Jaquan Johnson return for a loss of 4 yards , Tyre Brady return for a loss of 8 yards , Corn Elder return for a loss of 7 yards , Dallas Crawford return for 6 yds , Corn Elder return for 91 yds for a TD
-82.5
TD · Q4 0:06
Thomas Sirk 1 Yd Run (Thomas Sirk Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+75.7
TD · Q4 2:40
Johnell Barnes 13 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Ross Martin Kick)
+23.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com