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LOU

Louisville 20 at Wake Forest 19

WAKE
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2015 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDSAFETYTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:17: Jamari Staples 14 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +7.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. SAFETY · Q2 2:15: Team Safety — WAKE win probability +5.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 0:55: Tabari Hines 58 Yd pass from John Wolford (Mike Weaver Kick) — WAKE win probability +9.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:22: Jamari Staples 22 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +13.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:25: John Wallace 39 Yd Field Goal — LOU win probability +6.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10LOU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 14:33WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:14LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:14WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:07LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:58WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:20LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:23LOU 4th & 2 at WAKE 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:37LOU 4th & 6 at WAKE 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:04WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:40WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:05LOU 4th & 3 at WAKE 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−2.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:46WAKE 4th & 5 at LOU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:00WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:41LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 30, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:40LOU 4th & 3 at WAKE 46, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−3.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:45WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 22, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:29LOU 4th & 23 at LOU 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−5.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:25LOU 4th & 10 at WAKE 22, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−10.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:22LOU 4th & 19 at WAKE 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−9.6
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−23.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:06WAKE 4th & 3 at LOU 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−7.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:42LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 48, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 10.2 ptsPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%−10.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:17WAKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 15, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:36WAKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:17LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:55WAKE Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:22LOU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2324% → 24%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.1%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
24.2%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
24.2%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:33
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
24.3%
Alexander Kinal punt for 40 yds, downed at the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1276% → 75%
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
24.3%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 7 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-2
24.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamar JacksonSimilar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
24.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari Staples, broken up by Brad WatsonSimilar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
25.0%
Joshua Appleby punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tabari Hines at the WFrst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:4625% → 26%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
25.1%
Tyler Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 18Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+2
25.3%
Tyler Bell run for 2 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 9
OWN 20
-8
25.5%
John Wolford sacked by Trevon Young for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 12Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 17
OWN 12
-4
25.7%
Alexander Kinal punt for 44 yds , Cornelius Sturghill returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5574% → 73%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
25.7%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-2
25.9%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Marquel Lee and Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
26.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
26.6%
Joshua Appleby punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:0227% → 28%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
26.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 20 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
27.1%
Tyler Bell run for 2 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
27.4%
John Wolford pass incomplete to K.J. Brent, broken up by Shaq WigginsSimilar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+5
27.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 5 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
27.6%
Alexander Kinal punt for 43 yds , Cornelius Sturghill returns for no gain to the Lvile 8 Cornelius Sturghill fumbled, recovered by WFrst Zack WarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6FG
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:2529% → 30%
Q1 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
28.6%
Kendall Hinton run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 12Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
28.7%
Kendall Hinton run for no gain to the Lvile 12Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-6
28.8%
Kendall Hinton sacked by Trevon Young for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 18Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+36
29.5%
Mike Weaver 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:3171% → 69%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
29.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+9
29.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
29.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
30.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+4
30.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
31.0%
Joshua Appleby punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tabari Hines at the WFrst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:3030% → 35%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
30.4%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+78
34.6%
Cortez Lewis 78 Yd pass from Kendall Hinton (Mike Weaver Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FG
17 plays · 62 yds · 5:5966% → 63%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
34.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 13Similar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+14
34.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 14 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 1
OWN 27
-4
34.5%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+23
35.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 23 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
34.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 5 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
34.9%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the WFrst 48Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+12
35.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 12 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
35.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to L.J. Scott for 1 yd to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
35.9%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the WFrst 35Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+7
36.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 7 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 14:23
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+4
37.0%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Charles Standberry for 4 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
36.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the WFrst 23Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
36.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+3
38.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
37.3%
John Wallace 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2139% → 38%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
38.7%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-5
39.1%
Tyler Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 14
OWN 15
0
38.9%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to Cortez LewisSimilar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 14
OWN 15
+3
38.4%
Alexander Kinal punt for 38 yds , Alphonso Carter returns for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:1462% → 69%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
50
+20
37.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 5 yds to the WAKEFOREST 45 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Personal Foul (Tylor Harris) to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
37.0%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
37.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+26
38.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 26 yds to the WFrst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-13
37.6%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 1 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Skylar Lacy) to the WFrst 16Similar
Q2 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+2
38.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 2 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
31.1%
Jamari Staples 14 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:2735% → 34%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
35.3%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to K.J. BrentSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+13
35.2%
Kendall Hinton run for 13 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
35.8%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
35.5%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Cam Serigne for 1 yd to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
34.8%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
34.4%
Alexander Kinal punt for 24 yds, downed at the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2069% → 67%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
31.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 7 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
30.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-2
30.9%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
32.6%
Joshua Appleby punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tabari Hines at the WFrst 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:1137% → 39%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
37.1%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+2
37.3%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+15
36.5%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cortez Lewis for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devonte Fields) to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
38.2%
Wolford, John pass incomplete to Brent, K.J., PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Wiggins, Shaq) 14 yards to the WAKEFOREST48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
40.5%
John Wolford run for 6 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
41.3%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cortez LewisSimilar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
40.5%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cortez LewisSimilar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
38.6%
Alexander Kinal punt for 38 yds, downed at the Lvile 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15SF
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:1865% → 59%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
35.2%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the Lvile 9Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
40.9%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:1142% → 54%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
42.0%
Tyler Bell run for 6 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+2
44.2%
Tyler Bell run for 2 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+58
53.7%
Tabari Hines 58 Yd pass from John Wolford (Mike Weaver Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 0:1847% → 64%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
53.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
50
+10
50.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to L.J. Scott for 10 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
48.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 18 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
35.8%
Jamari Staples 22 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:1743% → 42%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
42.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 12Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+1
42.5%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the WFrst 13Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+2
41.3%
Kendall Hinton run for 2 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 15
-7
41.5%
Alexander Kinal punt for 41 yds , Alphonso Carter returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1057% → 54%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
41.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
43.5%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Thomas Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
45.7%
Joshua Appleby punt for 50 yds , Tabari Hines returns for 15 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4345% → 45%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
45.3%
Tyler Bell run for 3 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
47.0%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to Cam SerigneSimilar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
45.0%
Kendall Hinton pass intercepted Dee Smith return for no gain to the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0559% → 56%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
41.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
41.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 3 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-5
41.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+5
42.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
44.0%
Joshua Appleby punt for 45 yds, downed at the WFrst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:4846% → 47%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
46.0%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the WFrst 1Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
46.4%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to K.J. BrentSimilar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+16
45.2%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to K.J. Brent for 16 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
47.5%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the WFrst 18Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-6
47.6%
Kendall Hinton run for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 12Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+10
46.8%
Tyler Bell run for 10 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
46.8%
Alexander Kinal punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Alphonso Carter at the Lvile 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 7 yds · 3:0752% → 48%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
47.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
48.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+7
49.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 7 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
46.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+9
46.6%
Bonnafon, Reggie pass incomplete to Towbridge, Keith, PENALTY WAKEFOREST pass interference (Lee, Marquel) 9 yards to the WAKEFOREST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
44.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Lukayus McNeil) to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 15
OWN 46
-15
47.4%
Smith, Jeremy rush for 9 yards to the WAKEFOREST45, PENALTY LOUISVILLE illegal block 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 30
OWN 31
+4
49.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 26
OWN 35
0
50.0%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 26
OWN 35
+3
51.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 23
OWN 38
0
52.4%
Joshua Appleby punt for 50 yds, downed at the WFrst 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+20
51.2%
John Wolford pass intercepted Chucky Williams return for 20 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3956% → 60%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
43.9%
L.J. Scott run for 5 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-4
44.2%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 21Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-1
47.0%
L.J. Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
40.4%
John Wallace 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26INT
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:1341% → 50%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
40.9%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
41.3%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tyler BellSimilar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-5
39.2%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Justin Herron) to the WFrst 21Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+12
38.9%
John Wolford run for 12 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
41.9%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+32
41.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 32 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
49.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 12 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
49.4%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+13
49.8%
John Wolford pass intercepted Trumaine Washington return for 5 yds to the Lvile 16 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the Lvile 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27MISSED FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 7:2459% → 59%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+22
41.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 22 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
40.0%
Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+19
38.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 19 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
37.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 45Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+11
36.5%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 11 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
35.1%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 8 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+3
35.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
33.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+11
33.4%
Jeremy Smith run for 11 yds to the WFrst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
33.0%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-12
32.2%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Hunter Williams for a loss of 12 yards to the WFrst 19Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
37.0%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+36
41.2%
John Wallace 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Josh BanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4555% → 59%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
55.3%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
55.9%
John Wolford pass incomplete to K.J. BrentSimilar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+3
55.1%
Tyler Bell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+4
52.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 4 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+36
59.3%
John Wolford pass intercepted Shaq Wiggins return for 36 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3866% → 71%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
34.4%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
33.6%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
29.6%
L.J. Scott run for 5 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
28.9%
Joshua Appleby punt for 34 yds, downed at the WFrst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 30FUMBLE
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:2147% → 37%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
46.6%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to Cam SerigneSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
46.0%
Kendall Hinton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-3
44.1%
Kendall Hinton sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 13
OWN 15
-10
37.4%
Kendall Hinton sacked by Trevon Young for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 5 Kendall Hinton fumbled, forced by Trevon Young, recovered by Lvile Devonte Fields , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 31END OF GAME
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:1681% → 95%
Q4 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
19.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 8Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
16.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 11Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-3
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:22
Jamari Staples 22 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick)
-13
TD · Q2 0:55
Tabari Hines 58 Yd pass from John Wolford (Mike Weaver Kick)
+9.5
TD · Q2 8:17
Jamari Staples 14 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick)
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com