Try the model
UNC

North Carolina 26 at Pittsburgh 19

PITT
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2015 · Acrisure Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+2.4PITT 23.3%Chris Blewitt 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 6 · Q3 11:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:39 · Chris Blewitt 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Home team on offense−13.3Score differential−7.7Garbage-time factor−4.5Pregame prior−4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:13: Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 71 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +7.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:19: Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 32 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +11.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:14: Nick Weiler 39 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +3.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:10: Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +12.4 pts (now 30%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:46: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt PAT MISSED) — PITT win probability +15.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 8
  1. Q1 6:41PITT 4th & 9 at UNC 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:46UNC 4th & 2 at PITT 8, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%−0.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−3.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:15PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:56PITT 4th & 1 at UNC 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.0%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:46PITT 4th & 10 at UNC 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:59UNC 4th & 2 at PITT 14, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%−0.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−6.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:52PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:44UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:35UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:39PITT 4th & 6 at UNC 11, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−6.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:14UNC 4th & 2 at PITT 22, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%−1.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−7.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:00UNC 4th & 3 at PITT 36, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−2.6
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%−3.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:07PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 29, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:21UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:45PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.8%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:21PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:56UNC 4th & 2 at PITT 15, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%−0.9
    83% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−5.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 12:13UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:19UNC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:10PITT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:46PITT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    9.8%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 7:5740% → 44%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
40.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 9 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+5
40.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
40.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 2 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
40.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 7 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-5
40.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Alex Officer) to the Pitt 33Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+9
40.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 9 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
41.7%
Nathan Peterman sacked by TEAM for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+5
41.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+15
41.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Zach Challingsworth for 15 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
42.4%
Nathan Peterman run for no gain to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+19
42.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 19 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
43.1%
Chris James run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+4
43.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 4 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 5
OPP 22
-4
43.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+44
43.7%
Chris Blewitt 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:3956% → 57%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
43.9%
Elijah Hood run for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
43.6%
Marquise Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
43.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 17 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
43.5%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+7
43.2%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
43.3%
T.J. Logan run for 11 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
43.4%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
43.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+6
44.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 6 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
42.9%
Nick Weiler 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:4544% → 45%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
44.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
44.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
45.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
45.6%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
46.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 47Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
46.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for no gain to the Pitt 47Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
45.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Zach ChallingsworthSimilar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
44.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 1:4756% → 63%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
44.2%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
44.3%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+6
45.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
44.5%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+71
37.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 71 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5MISSED FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:5438% → 36%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.3%
Tyler Boyd run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
38.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 15 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
39.5%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
39.9%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
39.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 2 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
38.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
39.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 13 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
40.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
40.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
38.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+53
36.3%
Chris Blewitt 53 yd FG MISSED. Blocked by Mikey Bart, Team return for no gain to NCaro 35 Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:3065% → 67%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
35.2%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
34.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+14
34.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 14 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
33.7%
Williams, Marquise pass incomplete, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Pitts, Lafayette) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
33.5%
Elijah Hood run for 11 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
33.3%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
33.2%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+1
33.5%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the Pitt 14 Elijah Hood fumbled, recovered by NCaro Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
32.7%
Nick Weiler 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:1533% → 33%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Chris James for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
32.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 8 yds Dontez Ford fumbled, forced by Donnie Miles, recovered by NCaro Junior GnonkondeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:5069% → 80%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
31.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
31.3%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+32
19.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 32 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:0824% → 24%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
23.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Elijah Zeise for 10 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
23.8%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Junior Gnonkonde for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-6
22.9%
Nathan Peterman sacked by M.J. Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+9
22.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Zach Challingsworth for 9 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+1
23.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 41 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:5681% → 81%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
19.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 2 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+12
19.5%
T.J. Logan run for 12 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
19.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
19.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 8 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
18.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
18.9%
Corbin Daly punt for 35 yds, downed at the Pitt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11END OF HALF
9 plays · 60 yds · 0:4423% → 32%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
23.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Adam Bisnowaty) to the Pitt 17Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+24
22.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 24 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
23.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
23.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+20
22.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 20 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
31.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 21 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
31.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5581% → 80%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
19.0%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+4
18.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 4 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
19.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+3
19.6%
TEAM punt blocked by Quintin Wirginis blocked by Quintin Wirginis Jamal Davis II return for 3 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5123% → 23%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
22.5%
Chris James run for 5 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
21.9%
Chris James run for 2 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
-3
20.9%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Justin Thomason for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
23.3%
Chris Blewitt 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 0:5780% → 84%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+49
20.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 49 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
18.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
18.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+8
18.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+39
15.8%
Nick Weiler 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5918% → 30%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.5%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
17.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 8 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
17.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 16 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
18.7%
Tyler Boyd run for 6 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
18.7%
Chris James run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+10
18.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 10 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
18.3%
Chris James run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Officer) to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 18
OPP 38
+9
17.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
17.7%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Chris JamesSimilar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+12
17.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 12 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
17.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 13 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:4076% → 77%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
24.1%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+25
23.5%
Elijah Hood run for 25 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
21.6%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
21.5%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+4
21.6%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the Pitt 36 Elijah Hood fumbled, forced by Jordan Whitehead, recovered by NCaro Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
23.4%
Joey Mangili punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3823% → 21%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
22.9%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
22.7%
Chris James run for 6 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
22.5%
Nathan Peterman run for no gain to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
20.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3776% → 80%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
23.6%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
22.5%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+7
22.8%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
18.8%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
18.3%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
18.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
19.8%
Corbin Daly punt for 56 yds, downed at the Pitt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:3318% → 13%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
18.2%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+9
15.4%
Chris James run for 9 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
15.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
14.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+8
13.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+6
12.9%
Matt Galambos run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
14.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Chris JamesSimilar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
14.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 2 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+2
13.6%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 6
OWN 35
-3
13.1%
Ryan Winslow punt for 50 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20FG
13 plays · 73 yds · 4:2387% → 97%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+26
12.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 26 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
11.1%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+4
11.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+23
11.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 23 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
9.5%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-5
8.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 45Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+22
8.7%
Marquise Williams run for 22 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
8.3%
Elijah Hood run for 9 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 1
OPP 14
-2
6.8%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 16Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+1
6.3%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
3.0%
Nick Weiler 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:444% → 21%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
3.9%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Jessie Rogers for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+33
3.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 33 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
4.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Chris James for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-5
4.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 13
50
+4
3.6%
Peterman, Nathan pass incomplete, PENALTY UNC pass interference 4 yards to the UNC46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
4.0%
Nathan Peterman run for 28 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
5.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
5.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+6
4.4%
Peterman, Nathan pass incomplete, PENALTY UNC pass interference 6 yards to the UNC12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
5.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Zach Challingsworth for 6 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
5.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
20.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:1096% → 95%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 42Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-2
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:46
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt PAT MISSED)
+15.7
TD · Q3 4:10
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q2 3:19
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 32 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com