2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreUVA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:02 · Corbin Daly punt for 44 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:20: Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +3.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:11: Elijah Hood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNC win probability +3.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:25: Ian Frye 26 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +6.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:44: Elijah Hood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +12.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:07: Nick Weiler 37 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +5.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 7:04UVA 4th & 2 at UNC 17, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snapGo for it23.2%56% to convertField goalTheir call23.1%−0.180% to makePunt22.2%−1.0average punt
- Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 3 at UVA 42, down 3Close callPunted · 74.0% before the snapGo for it74.3%52% to convertField goal73.6%−0.730% to makePuntTheir call73.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:47UVA 4th & 11 at UNC 39, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snapGo for it26.7%−<0.127% to convertField goal26.7%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call26.8%average punt
- Q2 8:11UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snapGo for it23.3%−1.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%average punt
- Q2 0:25UVA 4th & 2 at UNC 9, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snapGo for it28.9%54% to convertField goalTheir call28.9%−<0.189% to makePunt23.5%−5.4average punt
- Q3 9:45UNC 4th & 12 at UVA 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snapGo for it65.0%−2.219% to convertField goalTheir call67.3%86% to makePunt57.7%−9.5average punt
- Q3 9:45UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it26.2%−1.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.6%average punt
- Q4 9:07UNC 4th & 7 at UVA 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snapGo for it87.9%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call88.3%75% to makePunt84.0%−4.3average punt
- Q4 9:07UVA 4th & 4 at UNC 4, down 13Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.0%−<0.140% to convertField goal9.0%93% to makePunt4.4%−4.6average punt
- Q4 5:06UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 28, up 13Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it96.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.6%−0.5average punt
- Q4 1:02UNC 4th & 13 at UVA 44, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.121% to convertField goal97.3%−<0.127% to makePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 4:36UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.8%97% to makeGo for two77.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:20UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.0%97% to makeGo for two25.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:11UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick75.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call75.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:44UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.8%97% to makeGo for two87.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNCDrive 1FUMBLE13 plays · 48 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+16
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 16 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
83.8%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 44 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by NCaro Marquise WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+15
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 15 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 7 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
83.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Elijah Hood) to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 35
-5
83.8%
Marquise Williams slant pass complete to Mack Hollins for 22 yards to the VA13 (Quin Blanding), PENALTY NC ineligible downfield on pass (John Ferranto) 5 yards to the VA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+21
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 14 yds Mack Hollins fumbled, forced by Demetrious Nicholson, recovered by Virg Micah Kiser , return for 21 yds to the Virg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FG7 plays · 34 yds · 7:5616% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
83.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 14 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2881% → 82%
Q1 7:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
81.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds Ryan Switzer fumbled, forced by Quin Blanding, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
81.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 10 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-6
81.5%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the Virg 37 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1618% → 23%
UNCDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1479% → 78%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
78.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 8 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
UNCDrive 7TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4676% → 80%
UVADrive 8PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
77.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 21 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
76.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal procedure (Jackson Matteo) to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 14
OWN 42
+1
78.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 40 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9INT2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
UVADrive 10FG16 plays · 56 yds · 4:4624% → 32%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
75.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 14 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+12
75.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 12 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+5
74.6%
Matt Johns middle pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, PENALTY NC pass interference (Jeff Schoettmer) 5 yards to the NC17, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 2
OPP 9
0
74.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Malik SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 75%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
73.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 21 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
75.2%
Marquise Williams deep pass complete to Mack Hollins for 53 yards to the VA1 (Kelvin Rainey), PENALTY NC pass interference (Mack Hollins) 15 yards to the NC31, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12INT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
UNCDrive 13FG7 plays · 4 yds · 2:2775% → 75%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-9
75.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd to the Virg 15 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Quinshad Davis) to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 19
OPP 25
+21
74.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 21 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
75.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (John Ferranto) to the Virg 9Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-9
74.2%
Marquise Williams sacked by Mike Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
74.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 16 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
71.7%
Matt Johns sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+2
73.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 2 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
75.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 48 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD15 plays · 93 yds · 5:5874% → 89%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
73.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 12 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
76.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 10 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
77.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 1 yd to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
77.2%
Elijah Hood rush left for 4 yards to the VA43 (Trent Corney;Micah Kiser), PENALTY VA offside defense (Mike Moore) 5 yards to the VA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+5
77.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, offside defense (Kwontie Moore) to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+4
78.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 4 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
78.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
78.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 3 yds to the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16INT10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0012% → 15%
Q4 14:38
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+15
87.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 25 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (Keeon Johnson) to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-5
87.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 14:38
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+15
89.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Robert Dinkins) to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 5
50
+5
85.5%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Malik Simmons return for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17FG5 plays · 30 yds · 1:2790% → 95%
UVADrive 18INT11 plays · 71 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
93.2%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 13 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Sam Smiley) to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
91.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
91.2%
Matt Johns deep pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, PENALTY NC pass interference (Malik Simmons) 15 yards to the NC18, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+15
91.4%
Matt Johns deep pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, PENALTY NC pass interference (Malik Simmons) 15 yards to the NC8, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
90.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Vincent Croce for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q4 9:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.9%
Matt Johns pass intercepted, touchback. Shakeel Rashad return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:4496% → 97%
UVADrive 20FUMBLE8 plays · 33 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
96.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the Virg 29 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Evan Butts) to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 14
OWN 19
0
96.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, broken up by Brian WalkerSimilar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+15
96.8%
Matt Johns deep pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, PENALTY NC pass interference (Des Lawrence) 15 yards to the VA34, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
96.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan Mizzell, broken up by Brian WalkerSimilar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+11
96.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 11 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
96.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
96.1%
Matt Johns sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 44 Matt Johns fumbled, recovered by NCaro Robert Dinkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:4798% → 98%
Q4 3:49
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-5
97.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal procedure (Lucas Crowley) to the Virg 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.7%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Malik Simmons return for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:44
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+12.3
FG · Q2 0:25
Ian Frye 26 yd FG GOOD
-6
FG · Q4 9:07
Nick Weiler 37 yd FG GOOD
+5.4