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UVA

Virginia 13 at North Carolina 26

UNC
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:07 · Matt Johns pass intercepted, touchback. Shakeel Rashad return for no gain
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+5.8Home team on offense+17.8Score differential+8.5Garbage-time factor+4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:20: Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +3.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:11: Elijah Hood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNC win probability +3.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:25: Ian Frye 26 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +6.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:44: Elijah Hood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +12.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:07: Nick Weiler 37 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +5.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 7:04UVA 4th & 2 at UNC 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.1%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 3 at UVA 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:47UVA 4th & 11 at UNC 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:11UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:25UVA 4th & 2 at UNC 9, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.9%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:45UNC 4th & 12 at UVA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−9.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:45UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:07UNC 4th & 7 at UVA 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:07UVA 4th & 4 at UNC 4, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:06UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 28, up 13
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:02UNC 4th & 13 at UVA 44, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−<0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:36UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:20UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:11UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:44UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1FUMBLE
13 plays · 48 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
83.8%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+16
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 16 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
83.8%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 44 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by NCaro Marquise WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+15
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 15 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 7 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
83.8%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
83.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Elijah Hood) to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 35
-5
83.8%
Marquise Williams slant pass complete to Mack Hollins for 22 yards to the VA13 (Quin Blanding), PENALTY NC ineligible downfield on pass (John Ferranto) 5 yards to the VA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 40
0
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 40
0
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. LoganSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+21
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 14 yds Mack Hollins fumbled, forced by Demetrious Nicholson, recovered by Virg Micah Kiser , return for 21 yds to the Virg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 7:5616% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
83.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
83.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
83.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 14 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
83.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
83.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+1
83.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+35
80.7%
Ian Frye 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2881% → 82%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.9%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
81.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds Ryan Switzer fumbled, forced by Quin Blanding, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
81.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 10 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
81.5%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-6
81.5%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the Virg 37 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+31
81.4%
Marquise Williams run for 31 yds to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
82.4%
T.J. Logan run for 16 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1618% → 23%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.6%
Daniel Hamm run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+53
81.5%
Daniel Hamm run for 53 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
80.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 11 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
80.6%
Daniel Hamm run for 4 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1479% → 78%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
78.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 8 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+2
79.1%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
79.2%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
79.2%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
78.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
78.1%
Hunter Lent punt for 15 yds, downed at the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
77.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
76.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
76.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+16
76.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 16 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
76.1%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
76.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
76.3%
Matt Johns pass incomplete, broken up by Brian WalkerSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 6
OPP 34
-5
76.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Taquan Mizzell) to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
77.3%
Nicholas Conte punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4676% → 80%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
75.5%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
75.4%
Elijah Hood run for 8 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
75.7%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+13
76.7%
Elijah Hood run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
50
+3
77.1%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
77.2%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+36
77.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 36 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.2%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
77.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 21 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
76.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal procedure (Jackson Matteo) to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+3
77.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+3
77.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-5
77.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Eric Smith) to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 14
OWN 42
0
77.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 14
OWN 42
+1
78.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 40 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
77.4%
Marquise Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.6%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Quin Blanding return for no gain to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 4:4624% → 32%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
76.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
75.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
75.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 14 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
74.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
74.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+12
75.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 12 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
73.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
74.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+5
74.6%
Matt Johns middle pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, PENALTY NC pass interference (Jeff Schoettmer) 5 yards to the NC17, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
73.7%
Daniel Hamm run for 4 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+4
71.6%
Daniel Hamm run for 4 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 2
OPP 9
0
74.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Malik SimmonsSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+26
68.2%
Ian Frye 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 75%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
73.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 21 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
75.2%
Marquise Williams deep pass complete to Mack Hollins for 53 yards to the VA1 (Kelvin Rainey), PENALTY NC pass interference (Mack Hollins) 15 yards to the NC31, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12INT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.1%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
69.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Brendan Marshall for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
69.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
69.5%
Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
69.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Charlie HopkinsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+41
70.6%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Sam Smiley return for 41 yds to the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13FG
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:2775% → 75%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-9
75.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd to the Virg 15 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Quinshad Davis) to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 19
OPP 25
+21
74.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 21 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
75.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (John Ferranto) to the Virg 9Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
75.3%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
75.3%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-9
74.2%
Marquise Williams sacked by Mike Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 12Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
75.1%
Nick Weiler 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
73.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
74.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 16 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
71.7%
Matt Johns sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+4
73.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+2
73.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 2 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
75.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 48 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
15 plays · 93 yds · 5:5874% → 89%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
73.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 12 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
74.3%
Elijah Hood run for 8 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+15
75.4%
Elijah Hood run for 15 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
76.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 10 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
77.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 1 yd to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
77.2%
Elijah Hood rush left for 4 yards to the VA43 (Trent Corney;Micah Kiser), PENALTY VA offside defense (Mike Moore) 5 yards to the VA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+5
77.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, offside defense (Kwontie Moore) to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
77.4%
T.J. Logan run for 8 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+4
78.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 4 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
78.1%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
78.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
78.1%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the Virg 14Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
78.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 3 yds to the Virg 11Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+8
77.0%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.3%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16INT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0012% → 15%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
88.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+15
87.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 25 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (Keeon Johnson) to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
87.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
86.3%
Daniel Hamm run for no gain to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-5
87.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 14:38
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+15
89.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Robert Dinkins) to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
85.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 5
50
0
85.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 5
50
+5
85.5%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Malik Simmons return for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17FG
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:2790% → 95%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
50
+27
89.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Damien Washington for 27 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
89.8%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-4
89.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
89.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete, broken up by David DeanSimilar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
94.7%
Nick Weiler 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18INT
11 plays · 71 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
93.2%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 13 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Sam Smiley) to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+6
91.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
91.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
91.2%
Matt Johns deep pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, PENALTY NC pass interference (Malik Simmons) 15 yards to the NC18, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
90.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+15
91.4%
Matt Johns deep pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, PENALTY NC pass interference (Malik Simmons) 15 yards to the NC8, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
90.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Vincent Croce for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
91.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q4 9:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.9%
Matt Johns pass intercepted, touchback. Shakeel Rashad return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:4496% → 97%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.1%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
96.0%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+4
96.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+5
96.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (Vincent Croce) to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
96.8%
Corbin Daly punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Maurice Canady at the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
96.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the Virg 29 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Evan Butts) to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 14
OWN 19
0
96.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, broken up by Brian WalkerSimilar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+15
96.8%
Matt Johns deep pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, PENALTY NC pass interference (Des Lawrence) 15 yards to the VA34, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
96.3%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
96.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan Mizzell, broken up by Brian WalkerSimilar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+11
96.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 11 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
96.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
96.1%
Matt Johns sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 44 Matt Johns fumbled, recovered by NCaro Robert Dinkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:4798% → 98%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
97.6%
Elijah Hood run for 15 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
97.6%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
97.6%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-5
97.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal procedure (Lucas Crowley) to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-1
97.4%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
98.2%
Corbin Daly punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.7%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Malik Simmons return for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-1
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:44
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+12.3
FG · Q2 0:25
Ian Frye 26 yd FG GOOD
-6
FG · Q4 9:07
Nick Weiler 37 yd FG GOOD
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com