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DUKE

Duke 45 at Virginia Tech 43

VT
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3OT4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:43 · A.J. Hughes punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingDefense timeouts
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3OT4Play 150Pregame prior+3.6Home team on offense−16.5Garbage-time factor−8.1Score differential−6.9Time remaining+0.2Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 2:07: Bucky Hodges 23 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Travon McMillian Run for Two-Point Conversion) — VT win probability +48.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. FG · OT 0:00: Joey Slye 37 Yd Field Goal — VT win probability +20.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · OT2 0:00: Anthony Nash 4 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Ross Martin Kick) — DUKE win probability +39.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. FG · OT3 0:00: Joey Slye 40 Yd Field Goal — VT win probability +51.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · OT4 0:00: Erich Schneider 25 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Thomas Sirk Run for Two-Point Conversion) — DUKE win probability +74.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 3:49VT 4th & 5 at VT 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:22DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:07VT 4th & 18 at DUKE 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−1.6
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:51DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:26VT 4th & 3 at VT 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:44DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:09VT 4th & 30 at VT 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−3.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:53DUKE 4th & 10 at VT 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:43VT 4th & 1 at VT 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:30VT 4th & 10 at DUKE 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:47DUKE 4th & 10 at VT 46, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    58.5%−3.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:10VT 4th & 19 at VT 4, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−9.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:48DUKE 4th & 9 at VT 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−14.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:43VT 4th & 4 at VT 42, down 8
    Close callPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:57DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−1.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:07VT 4th & 2 at DUKE 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−1.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−6.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:04DUKE 4th & 3 at VT 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%−1.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−28.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:49DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:21VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:51DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:17DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:27VT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:07VT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    32.3%−2.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:0628% → 31%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.8%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
71.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 11 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
71.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
71.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 9 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
71.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
71.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+23
71.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 23 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
70.9%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the VTech 19Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
70.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+14
70.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 14 yds to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
70.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the VTech 2Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
70.4%
Parker Boehme run for 1 yd to the VTech 1Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.8%
Max McCaffrey 1 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:2869% → 71%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
69.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 6 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+14
69.0%
Travon McMillian run for 14 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+36
68.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 36 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
69.3%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
69.2%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
71.0%
Bucky Hodges 16 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1230% → 35%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
70.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Erich Schneider for 9 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
69.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+45
69.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 45 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
68.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
65.2%
Max McCaffrey 16 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5266% → 65%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
66.3%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
66.1%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
65.7%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
65.2%
A.J. Hughes punt for 51 yds, downed at the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5735% → 35%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
65.3%
Jela Duncan run for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 16Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+8
65.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 8 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
65.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 9
OWN 24
+4
65.3%
Will Monday punt for 42 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 4 yds to the VTech 28 DUKE Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the VTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6FG
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:4365% → 65%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
65.2%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 42Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+5
64.7%
Brenden Motley run for 5 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+15
64.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 15 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
64.5%
Brenden Motley run for 3 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
65.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Ryan MalleckSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+16
64.1%
Michael Brewer run for 16 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-12
64.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for a loss of 12 yards to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 22
OPP 31
0
63.4%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 22
OPP 31
+4
62.3%
Michael Brewer run for 4 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 18
OPP 27
+44
64.5%
Joey Slye 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1135% → 35%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
64.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for no gain to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
64.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
64.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Terrence AllsSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 6
OWN 31
-5
65.2%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
65.5%
Will Monday punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1565% → 64%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
64.9%
Trey Edmunds run for 4 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
65.8%
Trey Edmunds run for 4 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-1
65.6%
Trey Edmunds run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 3
OWN 40
-2
63.9%
A.J. Hughes punt for 48 yds , Ryan Smith returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3436% → 37%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
63.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 19 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
62.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 7 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-2
61.6%
Shaquille Powell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
62.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 5
OWN 34
-2
63.0%
Will Monday punt for 53 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2963% → 59%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
62.7%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+12
62.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 12 yds to the VTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
62.2%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-3
61.4%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 13
OWN 25
-17
60.2%
Michael Brewer sacked by Zavier Carmichael for a loss of 17 yards to the VTech 8 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the VTech 8Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 30
OWN 8
+8
59.0%
A.J. Hughes punt for 49 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 8 yds to the VTech 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 4:1142% → 44%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
58.4%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the VTech 49Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+16
58.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 16 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
56.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
56.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 10 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
56.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
56.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+6
56.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds to the VTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
55.1%
DUKE Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 15
OPP 16
0
55.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+5
55.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the VTech 11Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
55.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q2 2:53
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
56.4%
Ross Martin 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4258% → 56%
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
58.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 9 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
57.9%
Michael Brewer run for 2 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
58.5%
Michael Brewer sacked by Mike Ramsay for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 20
OWN 21
0
56.0%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 20
OWN 21
+19
54.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 19 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
56.4%
A.J. Hughes punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
55.8%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 3:2258% → 56%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
58.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 16Similar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+15
57.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 15 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
58.2%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
59.3%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Travon McMillianSimilar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+10
57.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 10 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
59.4%
Travon McMillian run for 7 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+5
60.3%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
60.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
59.7%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
58.7%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Ryan MalleckSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
55.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:0245% → 64%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
54.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
53.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+17
55.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 17 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
36.5%
Shaun Wilson 58 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16TD
22 plays · 95 yds · 9:3637% → 49%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
36.7%
Travon McMillian run for 9 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+4
36.8%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
36.4%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+1
36.1%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-10
34.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VTech 13Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 15
OWN 13
+23
33.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 23 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
35.5%
Greg Stroman run for 4 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
35.9%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
34.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 7 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
35.8%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+3
36.5%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
35.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
34.5%
Sam Rogers run for 9 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+5
34.0%
Trey Edmunds run for 5 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
35.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
35.1%
Travon McMillian run for 9 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
33.0%
Michael Brewer run for 2 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
34.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 11 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
33.4%
Sam Rogers run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 12Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
31.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 10 yds to the Duke 2Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.6%
Travon McMillian 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3164% → 60%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
35.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
35.5%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
37.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
40.1%
Will Monday punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2742% → 38%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
41.9%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
41.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 17
-13
39.7%
Michael Brewer sacked by Jeremy Cash for a loss of 13 yards to the VTech 4Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 19
OWN 4
0
37.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1567% → 77%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
33.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 14 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
31.2%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+6
31.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Erich Schneider for 6 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
30.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
32.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
23.3%
Ross Martin 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0026% → 24%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.0%
Travon McMillian run for 11 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
26.6%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
27.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 3 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
26.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
23.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3980% → 83%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
20.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 12 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
18.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
17.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
15.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
17.1%
Will Monday punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 5:4421% → 65%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
21.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
20.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 11 yds to the VTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
20.7%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+10
17.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 10 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
18.9%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+9
17.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 9 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
19.3%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+11
19.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 11 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
20.9%
Sam Rogers run for 6 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+2
20.6%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
13.0%
Trey Edmunds run for no gain to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+23
59.1%
Bucky Hodges 23 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Travon McMillian Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.6%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) to the Duke 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:5050% → 57%
Q4 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+39
49.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 39 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
39.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
39.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 7 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
40.4%
Shaquille Powell run for no gain to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
43.3%
Ross Martin 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:4556% → 61%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
55.9%
Travon McMillian run for 16 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
60.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 5
50
0
61.8%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
50
+24
60.6%
Joey Slye 67 yd FG missed and RETURNED , DeVon Edwards return for 24 yds to the Duke 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0060% → 74%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
40.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the VTech 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
40.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the VTech 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
43.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
26.1%
Ross Martin 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
41.3%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Duke 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
41.3%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Duke 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
37.8%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
58.6%
Joey Slye 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 80%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
64.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 8 yds to the Duke 17Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+2
64.7%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
64.7%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
64.7%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Duke 11Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
79.6%
Bucky Hodges 11 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 60%
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
80.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the VTech 4Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
40.5%
Anthony Nash 4 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0060% → 72%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
40.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 21 yds to the VTech 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
40.5%
Parker Boehme run for 1 yd to the VTech 3Similar
OT3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
40.5%
Parker Boehme pass incompleteSimilar
OT3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
OT3 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
27.6%
Ross Martin 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 30FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 79%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.3%
Isaiah Ford pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
OT3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
35.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Travon McMillian for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
OT3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
32.1%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
OT3 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
79.0%
Joey Slye 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 31TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0085% → 87%
OT4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
84.6%
Travon McMillian run for 9 yds to the Duke 16Similar
OT4 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+4
84.6%
Michael Brewer run for 4 yds to the Duke 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
84.6%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the Duke 10Similar
OT4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+9
84.6%
Sam Rogers run for 9 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.4%
DUKE Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) to the Duke 1Similar
OT4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.4%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
OT4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.5%
Travon McMillian 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 32TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
OT4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
12.0%
Erich Schneider 25 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Thomas Sirk Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT4 0:00
Erich Schneider 25 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Thomas Sirk Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-74.6
FG · OT3 0:00
Joey Slye 40 Yd Field Goal
+51.6
TD · Q4 2:07
Bucky Hodges 23 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Travon McMillian Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+48.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com